Here are my concerns for tonight:

xanonymous

xanonymous

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I'm rooting for, and betting on:

Diaz, Penn & Shogun all by tko. That parlay is about 500/1 returns, so while it's unlikely - it's not impossible by any means.


Penn: Motivation, cardio + size/reach disadvantage.
Shogun: Cardio, reach disadvantage
Diaz: his complete disregard for checking leg kicks

It's in the back of my mind that as badly hyped as a motivated bj/healthy shogun - Gustuffassion didn't look great against T. Silva who, as much as I like, is basically a poor man's Shogun. Same for Rory, he's looked good but against bottom feeders.

As for Diaz, him to win by t/ko was at 14/1 - so by bookmakers opinion, James Toney was more likely to beat Couture by Submission than Diaz beating Bendo via tko. This is strange to me given what Diaz did to Gomi and Cerrone on the feet.
 
If you are concerned about your bets, then why did you bet?
 
don't waste your money man.
 
Gonna be a bad night with those bets. Nate is your only hope
 
I think your loss to reward is good, it could happen just unlikely.
I'd damn neer bet the house on Mcdonald to win by decision.
 
That would really suck if you get the first two right, and then Diaz drops him with strikes but finishes with a sub like he tends to do.
 
yekmurat said:
sorry but all of them will lose
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You're getting good odds and here are a few things to make you feel better:

I believe Rory SHOULD beat Penn. On paper, there is no other conclusion to come to. However, there is one thing that can't be accounted for, and that is the psychological factor. Rory is SEVERELY underestimating BJ Penn, and that's why Rory is going to lose.

Alexander has power, size, and reach over Shogun, but that's it, and in my opinion, it's not enough. Shogun has been through the fire with the best of the best, and I think he dominates this fight on the ground. It will probably look a lot like Shogun v. Overeem 1.

Your Diaz bet is solid. I think that fight can go either way. I thought Benson would have a homecourt advantage, but Diaz has a lot of fans here (went to the weigh-ins yesterday and there were a lot of Diaz fans and a lot of boos for Henderson.)
 
i think it could happen, a long shot but not unrealistic... GOOD LUCK!!!
 
mobeck said:
You're getting good odds and here are a few things to make you feel better:

I believe Rory SHOULD beat Penn. On paper, there is no other conclusion to come to. However, there is one thing that can't be accounted for, and that is the psychological factor. Rory is SEVERELY underestimating BJ Penn, and that's why Rory is going to lose.

Alexander has power, size, and reach over Shogun, but that's it, and in my opinion, it's not enough. Shogun has been through the fire with the best of the best, and I think he dominates this fight on the ground. It will probably look a lot like Shogun v. Overeem 1.

Your Diaz bet is solid. I think that fight can go either way. I thought Benson would have a homecourt advantage, but Diaz has a lot of fans here (went to the weigh-ins yesterday and there were a lot of Diaz fans and a lot of boos for Henderson.)
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I like this post. The solid chins of Penn and Shogun are also reassuring. Maybe im remembering wrong but i thought Bendo got boo'd at the weigh ins? - maybe im thinking of Rory
 
xanonymous said:
I'm rooting for, and betting on:

Diaz, Penn & Shogun all by tko. That parlay is about 500/1 returns, so while it's unlikely - it's not impossible by any means.


Penn: Motivation, cardio + size/reach disadvantage.
Shogun: Cardio, reach disadvantage
Diaz: his complete disregard for checking leg kicks

It's in the back of my mind that as badly hyped as a motivated bj/healthy shogun - Gustuffassion didn't look great against T. Silva who, as much as I like, is basically a poor man's Shogun. Same for Rory, he's looked good but against bottom feeders.

As for Diaz, him to win by t/ko was at 14/1 - so by bookmakers opinion, James Toney was more likely to beat Couture by Submission than Diaz beating Bendo via tko. This is strange to me given what Diaz did to Gomi and Cerrone on the feet.
Click to expand...

It is not likely as this is the perfect storm but it is very possible. I might throw a small amount on the same. It is worth the risk if you can handle the loss.
 
xanonymous said:
I like this post. The solid chins of Penn and Shogun are also reassuring. Maybe im remembering wrong but i thought Bendo got boo'd at the weigh ins? - maybe im thinking of Rory
Click to expand...

Yeah, the Diaz fans booed Bendo at the weigh-in, but Bendo still had a good contingent of hometown peeps here to support him.

And that's another good point about their chins. Shogun and Penn have been through wars, but neither of them have ever been KO'd flat out, unconscious on the mat. Those kind of knock outs take a lot out of your career (ie: Wanderlei, Chuck).

People that are saying Penn is at the end of the road are wrong. He's never really had terrible injuries, never been all busted up after a fight -- he usually loses due to fatigue and not damage, so his body is actually pretty young despite his long career. It's a mistake for Rory to convince himself that Penn is at the end of the rope. You can't ever think like that in MMA.
 
mobeck said:
Yeah, the Diaz fans booed Bendo at the weigh-in, but Bendo still had a good contingent of hometown peeps here to support him.

And that's another good point about their chins. Shogun and Penn have been through wars, but neither of them have ever been KO'd flat out, unconscious on the mat. Those kind of knock outs take a lot out of your career (ie: Wanderlei, Chuck).

People that are saying Penn is at the end of the road are wrong. He's never really had terrible injuries, never been all busted up after a fight -- he usually loses due to fatigue and not damage, so his body is actually pretty young despite his long career. It's a mistake for Rory to convince himself that Penn is at the end of the rope. You can't ever think like that in MMA.
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Add in that even a gassed shogun throws shots that can end the fight, even after 5 rounds with Hendo. Not sure if the same can be said for Penn. I think he's the least likely to get the TKO out of the 3 fights.
 
Pretty good bet i'd say. It's far from impossible. The fights are close as hell to predict!!!
 
Don't forget the concern that the real Shogun won't show up.
 
gabe1k said:
Don't forget the concern that the real Shogun won't show up.
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Yeah, that's definitely a big factor. In shape, Shogun's a beast, and out of shape, he's still a beast but only for a round and a half. He looked better at the weigh-in than I've seen in a long time. WHen he fought Dan Henderson, he looked really out of shape and still went 5 hellish rounds. He looks a lot better this time 'round.

Only tonight will tell, though. WOn't be long now!
 
mobeck said:
Yeah, that's definitely a big factor. In shape, Shogun's a beast, and out of shape, he's still a beast but only for a round and a half. He looked better at the weigh-in than I've seen in a long time. WHen he fought Dan Henderson, he looked really out of shape and still went 5 hellish rounds. He looks a lot better this time 'round.

Only tonight will tell, though. WOn't be long now!
Click to expand...

He looked to be in good shape against Vera though, and that was a fun fight, but Shogun should have stopped Vera in no more than 2 rounds.
 
What odds can you get if you switch Diaz to ITD instead of tko? I like a Diaz finish, but good chance it's by sub even if it starts by him hurting bendo on the feet.
 
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