Housing market rest of the year?

[Fedorgasm]

What do you think will happen with housing in 2024?

There's a lot of talk about interest rate cuts that might happen later this year. If they do, that should drive home prices up.

But on the flip side, the increase in interest rates might still have a lingering effect for a while, which could cause prices to go down, especially since a ton of new homes are being built to try and solve the inventory problem.

So what do you think? Home prices up or down?

 

[jeff7b9]

Some sort of stability and rationality would be a welcome change in my market.

Houses are going 100k over.
It is annoying.

Just had a buyer put in 20k over on a fucking TINY starter house, no updates, like 1000sf 2bed 1 bath with visible cracks in the foundation.

390list, went "well over 500"

Jesus fuck. 78 fucking offers.

 

[Oblivian]

A major factor is the decision that buyer's are responsible for their own realtor's commission. I had a thread on that earlier: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...altors-settlement-reduced-commission.4325476/

I'm seeing deals that ask the seller to pay the commission. These are being countered with an increase in price. It's a weird psychological game right now. Prices before always included the idea that both sides commission was built in. So if the buyer is making an offer with that mindset, the seller is playing the argument of "that price is inaccurate and should be increased by buyer's commission". The irony is that sellers are probably going to use this to INCREASE prices, whereas they thought prices would go down.

 

[jeff7b9]

A major factor is the decision that buyer's are responsible for their own realtor's commission. I had a thread on that earlier: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...altors-settlement-reduced-commission.4325476/

I'm seeing deals that ask the seller to pay the commission. These are being countered with an increase in price. It's a weird psychological game right now. Prices before always included the idea that both sides commission was built in. So if the buyer is making an offer with that mindset, the seller is playing the argument of "that price is inaccurate and should be increased by buyer's commission". The irony is that sellers are probably going to use this to INCREASE prices, whereas they thought prices would go down.

Duh.

Cost ALWAYS gets passed on to the consumer.

To think otherwise was naive.

This whole thing was never going to be more than pat yourself on the back to feel good about 'doing something' horseshit.

Sellers have this market by the balls.
That is supply and demand and you can't regulate around that, it just doesn't work that way.

Not sure who thought it would be a brilliant idea to try to fuck buyers in a seller's market, but here we are.

 

[Fedorgasm]

A major factor is the decision that buyer's are responsible for their own realtor's commission. I had a thread on that earlier: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/...altors-settlement-reduced-commission.4325476/

I'm seeing deals that ask the seller to pay the commission. These are being countered with an increase in price. It's a weird psychological game right now. Prices before always included the idea that both sides commission was built in. So if the buyer is making an offer with that mindset, the seller is playing the argument of "that price is inaccurate and should be increased by buyer's commission". The irony is that sellers are probably going to use this to INCREASE prices, whereas they thought prices would go down.

I forgot about that. So if many buyers can't come up with the cash to pay commissions, then a lot of those deals fall apart, right? So this should cause prices to go down. Fewer qualified buyers means home prices fall.

 

[Fedorgasm]

I'm asking because I'm selling a house and buying a new one soon. Butt I guess it really doesn't matter what the market does.

If it goes up it helps me as a seller and hurts me as a buyer, and if it goes down it hurts me as a seller but helps me as a buyer. So I guess it's a wash.

Unless I thought a real crash was coming. Then I could sell high, rent for a year, and then buy low.

 

[I Am Legion]

My house has appreciated 250k plus since covid. INSANE. Not enough inventory by me to slow anything down.

 

[Oblivian]

Duh.

Cost ALWAYS gets passed on to the consumer.

To think otherwise was naive.

This whole thing was never going to be more than pat yourself on the back to feel good about 'doing something' horseshit.

Sellers have this market by the balls.
That is supply and demand and you can't regulate around that, it just doesn't work that way.

Not sure who thought it would be a brilliant idea to try to fuck buyers in a seller's market, but here we are.

Realistically, it shouldn't have affected prices at all. It should just be written up as a seller paid closing cost with both sides knowing that up front. This will be the case with many rational sellers. The aggressive sellers or ignorant sellers are just using it as a negotiating tool. We're still seeing how it's playing out, but I'm hearing it's almost 50/50 at this point. It also depends on the mindset of the buyer. We're 6% here typically (3/3). Some buyers are coming in 3% under on what they expect to pay writing in the "seller pays commission", and then they'll just accept the counter 3% higher.

 

[Get To Da Choppa]

What do you think will happen with housing in 2024?

There's a lot of talk about interest rate cuts that might happen later this year. If they do, that should drive home prices up.

But on the flip side, the increase in interest rates might still have a lingering effect for a while, which could cause prices to go down, especially since a ton of new homes are being built to try and solve the inventory problem.

So what do you think? Home prices up or down?

I believe housing prices will go up quite a bit with rate cuts. Even with rates at ~8%, the housing market in general hasn't pulled back much from the highs in 2022/2023. I believe there are a lot of buyers waiting with cash in hand waiting for the rate cuts before jumping in. The increase in housing prices will continue to drive inflation unfortunately.

If I have to make a guess, I would say buy one now if you have the money with an adjustable mortgage and refinance it when the rates drop, and sell the existing property later in the year when the buyers start coming in more

 

[Oblivian]

I'm asking because I'm selling a house and buying a new one soon. Butt I guess it take doesn't matter what the market does.

If it goes up it helps me as a seller and hurts me as a buyer, and if it goes down it hurts me as a seller but helps me as a buyer. So I guess it's a wash.

Unless I thought a real crash was coming. Then I could sell high, rent for a year, and then buy low.

It's really only good in a situation of downsizing honestly. If you are making a parallel move or upgrading and you think prices are inflated now, you'll be affected by the drop.

 

[boingyman]

If I had to take a wild guess we will see interest rates drop slowly and we will have a modest increase in home prices. Although YMMV depending on supply/demand and your local market.

 

[jeff7b9]

Realistically, it shouldn't have affected prices at all. It should just be written up as a seller paid closing cost with both sides knowing that up front. This will be the case with many rational sellers. The aggressive sellers or ignorant sellers are just using it as a negotiating tool. We're still seeing how it's playing out, but I'm hearing it's almost 50/50 at this point. It also depends on the mindset of the buyer. We're 6% here typically (3/3). Some buyers are coming in 3% under on what they expect to pay writing in the "seller pays commission", and then they'll just accept the counter 3% higher.

I think of every negotiation in terms of who has the power/leverage.

By me that is the sellers. And it is lopsided as fuck right now. Short supply and houses going WAY over. Way over list, way over anything you could possibly try to justify with comps, just absurd shit.

In my market if buyers try to short by 3% to compensate commission then they just won't get the house.

I'm curious how the attorney reviews play out. My gut instinct is that most deals correct back to status quo for now until this whole scenario plays out more and people either accept it or don't.

But in theory it is just a flat out terrible idea. Almost so bad that you wonder if it was attempting to sabbatoge the market by design. Buyers by nature are often stretched to, if not beyond their means, greed is a thing.

First time buyers don't have thousands in extra cash laying around to drop another 3%.

Flippers do... so maybe this will be the nail in the coffin, in my area, for anyone not already fairly wealthy, to be able to buy a starter home. Now the remaining relatively few, are gonna get snatched up, McMansion'ed and the whole bottom of the market will get pulled up and out of reach to most young folks. People are gonna have to live with their parents until their 40s or just move away.

 

[RoastBeast]

"Closing costs" price gouging doesnt help either. You're telling me that it costs $30k+ in fees for real estate agents to put some paperwork together for you? People need to catch on to this scam and just start privately selling their homes. I think it would help values drop a bit as well and help both the sellers and the buyers.

 

[method115]

My house has appreciated 250k plus since covid. INSANE. Not enough inventory by me to slow anything down.

Wow that really is crazy. Mine is about 125k. I do wonder if I could get more though because nothing is for sell in my area now and I haven't seen that since I moved here 8 years ago.

 

[jeff7b9]

"Closing costs" price gouging doesnt help either. You're telling me that it costs $30k+ in fees for real estate agents to put some paperwork together for you? People need to catch on to this scam and just start privately selling their homes. I think it would help values drop a bit as well and help both the sellers and the buyers.

People have been welcome to sell their house themselves all along.

It is an absolutely horrible decision, somewhat akin to representing yourself in court but if you want to "save $10,000" by selling your house for $50k+ less than an agent would have sold it for... do it. People with that sort of mentality are generally a nightmare to work with and can't get out of their own way, I would imagine I am not the only agent that would say by all means, do your thing.



Feel free to research the results of FSBO vs Agency sales. Here is a link if you don't feel like taking 11 seconds to type a few words into a search engine:

FSBO vs. Realtor: 25 Key Statistics to Know in 2024

Should you sell FSBO or use a realtor? Check out these key FSBO statistics to help you decide whether to use a real estate agent or not.

listwithclever.com

_____________

I have encountered a couple people who managed to cut certain pieces out of the pie by either handling their own home inspection or acting as their own attorney, but the ones who did so successfully were always well educated and experienced in the aspect they chose to do themselves. It still usually results in more work for the agent.

Which skills do you have or do you think the average buyer/seller has to cut folks out of the process?

Real estate agent
Photographer
Surveyor
Home inspector
Tank sweep
Pool inspector
Real estate lawyer *
Title
Financing /underwriting


*lots of folks fuck this up by hiring their dipshit relative who does a different type of law.

 

[RoastBeast]

People have been welcome to sell their house themselves all along.

It is an absolutely horrible decision, somewhat akin to representing yourself in court but if you want to "save $10,000" by selling your house for $50k+ less than an agent would have sold it for... do it. People with that sort of mentality are generally a nightmare to work with and can't get out of their own way, I would imagine I am not the only agent that would say by all means, do your thing.



Feel free to research the results of FSBO vs Agency sales. Here is a link if you don't feel like taking 11 seconds to type a few words into a search engine:

FSBO vs. Realtor: 25 Key Statistics to Know in 2024

Should you sell FSBO or use a realtor? Check out these key FSBO statistics to help you decide whether to use a real estate agent or not.

listwithclever.com

_____________

I have encountered a couple people who managed to cut certain pieces out of the pie by either handling their own home inspection or acting as their own attorney, but the ones who did so successfully were always well educated and experienced in the aspect they chose to do themselves. It still usually results in more work for the agent.

Which skills do you have or do you think the average buyer/seller has to cut folks out of the process?

Real estate agent
Photographer
Surveyor
Home inspector
Tank sweep
Pool inspector
Real estate lawyer *
Title
Financing /underwriting


*lots of folks fuck this up by hiring their dipshit relative who does a different type of law.

This is exactly why it's a scam. Part of the scam is that they have the system rigged to keep you from selling privately.

Nothing on that list is something an ordinary person either can't do themselves or hire someone to do and it certainly doesn't cost tens of thousands of dollars to get those jobs done.

 

[Oblivian]

This is exactly why it's a scam. Part of the scam is that they have the system rigged to keep you from selling privately.

Nothing on that list is something an ordinary person either can't do themselves or hire someone to do and it certainly doesn't cost tens of thousands of dollars to get those jobs done.

It sounded like you were bitching about all of the costs - title, lender fees, inspection, etc., but it sounds like you really are just bitching about realtor's commission, correct?

 

[I Am Legion]

Wow that really is crazy. Mine is about 125k. I do wonder if I could get more though because nothing is for sell in my area now and I haven't seen that since I moved here 8 years ago.

I have real estate agents leaving cards in my mailbox. My house is no palace, just an updated Cape. I would sell in a second, but where would I move too? Everything is nuts....500k around here is a starter home that needs tons of work. You can't even find those because builders over pay just for the inventory.

 

[RoastBeast]

It sounded like you were bitching about all of the costs - title, lender fees, inspection, etc., but it sounds like you really are just bitching about realtor's commission, correct?

I'm just bitching to be bitching. Old man yelling at clouds.

I mean what is really so different from selling a vehicle that you need to pay tens of thousands of dollars here? You have a piece of property, you take pictures of it, post them online, have it inspected, people go get approved for a loan and you fill out the paperwork to transfer ownership and the loan to your account. I just don't see the need for all the other BS.

 

[Oblivian]

I'm just bitching to be bitching. Old man yelling at clouds.

I mean what is really so different from selling a vehicle that you need to pay tens of thousands of dollars here? You have a piece of property, you take pictures of it, post them online, have it inspected, people go get approved for a loan and you fill out the paperwork to transfer ownership and the loan to your account. I just don't see the need for all the other BS.

Well it can be easy - it just depends on rules in your area. We get people where a buyer approached someone who didn't even have the house on the market. They come to us (title company) and ask what they need to do. All that we need to get the process started is a purchase agreement. The purchase agreement is everything though - it says if they are going to do inspections, survey, etc. Realistically, they can find a purchase agreement online and we'll handle the closing, transfer, recording, etc. They'd have to handle any of the other items (inspections, survey, required disclosures, etc.). This can be really smooth on a cash transaction, but with financing, it's another story.

As a neutral party in the process, I've seen it all. A lot of for sale by owner deals are total shitshows. With that said, I've seen realtors who really shouldn't even be licensed who fuck everything up. I've seen realtors grossly overpaid for "doing paperwork" on a for sale by owner deal. I'd prefer most deals to go through good realtors, but nowadays, the system is setup to have a ton of shitty realtors as long as the owners are getting their cut. When I first started in this industry, most realtors were full time. Now it's a dime a dozen with some that just do a handful of transactions per year.