I'm insane but.....

Tabarnakos

Tabarnakos

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I just decided to put 20$ on 3 fights of the card tonight :

Moises by KO or TKO
Reneau by KO or TKO
Stephens by KO or TKO

It's quite the gamble (and to be fair i don't like mu chances lol) but my reasoning is

Makahchev vs Moises : Both guys are mostly sub/grappling guys and sometimes when 2 styles like that go against each other it end up being a striking contest. Moises could catch Islam with something and win via KO or TKO if that's the case

Tate vs Reneau : Reneau isn't very good but Tate hasn't fought for 5 years and could be a bit rusty. Reneau is old as hell but she does have 5 KO in 9 wins so.....who knows

Stephens vs Gamrot : An old vet warrior vs an upcoming guy. Lil heathen is on the decline and not what he used to be but he still have solid powerand fought much better competition than Gamrot. There is an upset potential here

If i win i make 19.7k. If i lose i only lose 20 bucks so it's not big deal at all. The potential gain was just too good to pass on

You guys think i actually have a chance to pull this off ? I don't really believe it myself but again....20$ for potentially making close to 20k....that's a chance i'm willing to take lol
 
"Makahchev vs Moises : Both guys are mostly sub/grappling guys and sometimes when 2 styles like that go against each other it end up being a striking contest"

Go watch Islam vs Arman
 
There is a reason the odds payout what they do on that bet.

Sure it's POSSIBLE that you hit. But the reason the odds are set where they are is because it is THAT unlikely that all those events happen together.

The house cleans up on these prop bets because it's not just YOUR 20$ vs their 20k. It's your 20 you don't care about losing and another 10k dopes that make the same type of bet. Only 1 of those outcomes can happen so unless a lot of people guess right, the house wins.

That said, if you think there is a good chance, it is a fun prop so gl too you.

If I were to make that bet I would first try to assign odds to each fight outcome independently, then multiply them together to get the likelihood of all events happening. If the book's payout is greater than the payout on my odds, it's a good bet. But even then you are standing in the rain hoping to get hit by lightning. It's still unlikely. So if you do that, you need to play the game out to infinity for you to come out ahead. Which means having a lot of capital and betting every card. AKA, you become a professional gambler. Which if you are that good, why not just become the oddsmaker and then you make exponentially more by collecting other dopes money who do what you did and just say, "hmm, this this and this might happen, lets throw 20$ down and see!"

Anyway, I digress.

For what it's worth, I don't gamble because I don't take my own advice. I win a bunch on fight bets and then go drop all the winnings on roullete, a game the odds are always against you and is 100% chance. The rush is addicting. And winning when you aren't supposed to is fun. But I always lose because I never stop.

And now I wrote an essay. That's gotta count as a gamblers anonymous meeting. Y'all tell my wife to get off my fuckin back.
 
Should've gone with Moises by Sub. That's his only chance.

Reneau beat the hell out of Alexis Dufresne a few years back and does have KO ability, but I doubt it translates against Tate. She battled Holly Holm for almost 5 rounds and didn't get KO'd, it's hard for me to think that will happen here.

Lil Heathen has a puncher's chance, I suppose. But Gamrot seems like a solid prospect.

I give it a 9.5 on my Crazy-meter. If it comes through for you, I'll gladly come back and pay my pound of flesh by eating some crow. lol
 
Tabarnakos said:
I just decided to put 20$ on 3 fights of the card tonight :

Moises by KO or TKO
Reneau by KO or TKO
Stephens by KO or TKO

It's quite the gamble (and to be fair i don't like mu chances lol) but my reasoning is

Makahchev vs Moises : Both guys are mostly sub/grappling guys and sometimes when 2 styles like that go against each other it end up being a striking contest. Moises could catch Islam with something and win via KO or TKO if that's the case

Tate vs Reneau : Reneau isn't very good but Tate hasn't fought for 5 years and could be a bit rusty. Reneau is old as hell but she does have 5 KO in 9 wins so.....who knows

Stephens vs Gamrot : An old vet warrior vs an upcoming guy. Lil heathen is on the decline and not what he used to be but he still have solid powerand fought much better competition than Gamrot. There is an upset potential here

If i win i make 19.7k. If i lose i only lose 20 bucks so it's not big deal at all. The potential gain was just too good to pass on

You guys think i actually have a chance to pull this off ? I don't really believe it myself but again....20$ for potentially making close to 20k....that's a chance i'm willing to take lol
Click to expand...
Nah, bro. I don't think that's crazy at all. It's only risking $20. Best of luck to you.
 
CatchnShoot said:
Miesha is a lock.
Islam is a near lock
Stevens has a hail Mary chance.

Should have bought beer.
Click to expand...

I did

One does not exclude the other. Now i have both a , albeit very small , chance to win 20k and beer. I'm fully loaded and ready to go
 
Tabarnakos said:
I just decided to put 20$ on 3 fights of the card tonight :

Moises by KO or TKO
Reneau by KO or TKO
Stephens by KO or TKO

It's quite the gamble (and to be fair i don't like mu chances lol) but my reasoning is

Makahchev vs Moises : Both guys are mostly sub/grappling guys and sometimes when 2 styles like that go against each other it end up being a striking contest. Moises could catch Islam with something and win via KO or TKO if that's the case

Tate vs Reneau : Reneau isn't very good but Tate hasn't fought for 5 years and could be a bit rusty. Reneau is old as hell but she does have 5 KO in 9 wins so.....who knows

Stephens vs Gamrot : An old vet warrior vs an upcoming guy. Lil heathen is on the decline and not what he used to be but he still have solid powerand fought much better competition than Gamrot. There is an upset potential here

If i win i make 19.7k. If i lose i only lose 20 bucks so it's not big deal at all. The potential gain was just too good to pass on

You guys think i actually have a chance to pull this off ? I don't really believe it myself but again....20$ for potentially making close to 20k....that's a chance i'm willing to take lol
Click to expand...
How can the payout be so high? Won't a ton of people make the same bet?
 
i mean... its possible. i just wonder how wmma ring rust look like knowing how bad they are to begin with. and tate with that nose job could crumble after couple of jabs.
moses/islam is 40/60 fight for me
stephens is the one i would worry about
 
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