If the Gathje who fought Tony shows up Chandler is in for a tough fight. Chandlers style might cause Justin to get sloppy. 55/45 Gathje for me, should be a great fight.
In retrospect, perhaps too much was attributed to JG's performance without the understanding how far Tony had slipped. Ferguson has now been absolutely dominated in his last two performances. He was competitive for 3 rounds with JG, dropping him at the end of the first.
I think this fight is a pickem, both guys have KO power and high level experience.
- KO power: even
- Athleticism: Chandler
- Durability: Justin
- Grappling: Chandler
We saw JG get knocked out by Alvarez and Dustin because he lacks basic fight IQ at times, but he may be around that corner. His chin is very solid but it doesn't matter as much if you are catching sledgehammers. Still, JG should get the durability advantage. Chandler is an excellent MMA grappler and JG flat out SUCKS on the mat. Chandler should have more ways to win.
In retrospect, perhaps too much was attributed to JG's performance without the understanding how far Tony had slipped. Ferguson has now been absolutely dominated in his last two performances. He was competitive for 3 rounds with JG, dropping him at the end of the first.
I think this fight is a pickem, both guys have KO power and high level experience.
- KO power: even
- Athleticism: Chandler
- Durability: Justin
- Grappling: Chandler
We saw JG get knocked out by Alvarez and Dustin because he lacks basic fight IQ at times, but he may be around that corner. His chin is very solid but it doesn't matter as much if you are catching sledgehammers. Still, JG should get the durability advantage. Chandler is an excellent MMA grappler and JG flat out SUCKS on the mat. Chandler should have more ways to win.
I think leg kicks should be the fifth category and Gaethje has a huge edge there. I think Chandler has 2 paths to win--an early KO (tough with Justin's chin) or wrestling leading to a submission or a decision. While Gaethje looks pretty bad off his back, his TDD and scrambling look pretty solid. Khabib is the only guy to really manhandle him on the ground....and there's only one Khabib. Plus Chandler enjoys brawling and sometimes brawls when he should wrestle. I still think it's a tough fight to call, but I say Gaethje with 60/40 or maybe even 70/30 odds.
Regardless of which version of Tony he fought it had nothing to do with his improved patience, footwork and methodical destruction of his opponent. Pre-Tony Gathje never fought like that even against cans in WSOF.
JG has great leg kicks but when he was fighting with that style, it was the YOLO take yours to land mine. He was never slick with it, just full ham frontal assault. Maybe things have changed, but we haven't gotten a chance to see yet.
Otherwise pretty solid assessment. Lets put getting smashed by Khabib aside, because it should be in its own category. Prior to that fight, the two best guys JG fought in the UFC were Alvarez and Poirer. They both knocked him out in dogfights.
Yes because beating guys that recently took an loss on their record or have losing streaks is totally worthy of a ts in the ufc, since it's being the new norm, ufc is just thankful majority of their fans are mindless apes and they can get away with this crap on the regular and they don't care about being credible cause they are shady as it gets anyways.
Khabib had a tough time taking Gaethje down. Khabib got hit with a lot of leg kicks and powerful punches. Those strikes would likely KO other grapplers like Chandler and Oliveria.
Gaethje's TDD is pretty good as are his scrambles, but I agree his sub defense sucks. Hopefully he has improved that in this past year.
No arguments on Alvarez and Poirier. But even before Ferguson, Gaethje seemed to be implementing a more technical style (yes, it was hard to see much of it when he had fast KOs over Vick/Barboza/Cerrone). And while I think Ferguson was in a slow decline even in his last few wins (similar to an aging Chuck Liddell), it's hard to say how much he'd fallen by the Gaethje fight. Was he that much worse or did that fight "take his soul"? Either way, I think we saw a better, more patient and more technical Gaethje who with 5-round cardio. I think the younger version of Tony who beat RDA would beat the wild Gaethje who lost to Eddie an Dustin. Gaethje would probably win the first two rounds but Tony would eventually take him into deep waters. A truly prime Ferguson vs. prime Gaethje? That's hard to call.
Justin was so lost against Khabibs TD and mount.Not to be a dick but if you can take JG down, the fights over right? Chandler can wrestle and has some subs on his record. Khabib clearly highlighted the path to victory. Justin, seemingly, has zero submission defense.
Keep in mind Chandler is 35 and could go the Ferguson route at any time. Gaethje is 32 and taken his share of damage as well, but of the two, Chandler is more likely IMO to suddenly "look old." That's another reason I give the edge to Justin.In MMA, when it goes it goes fast. Look at BJ Penn fighting Edgar the first fight, then fast forward to the rematch. Usually these guys fall off a cliff when they are coming down from the top.
Tony finally looked his age, and he was competitive with JG for the first 3 rounds. He even dropped him in the first. In his subsequent two fights, he was literally never in the fight, not for a minute. He was completely dominated.
Suffice to say I'd like to see how JG looks in his next fight to see if he's really improved in a meaningful way since he fought guys the caliber of Poirer and Alvarez.