Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - JULY, 2018

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by Black Paladin, Jul 3, 2018.

  1. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    I agree about the bullpen.

    May 5, Gonsalves pitched game against Angels 9-8 score and June 12th, Barria pitched a good game game against Seattle but team still lost 6-3.

    I like Seattle offense, reminds me of KC a few years back where they kept the line moving but some more power in the lineup.

    Good luck to bettors on both sides!
     
  2. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Meh. I'm still fine with it. Just did 1u but I still like it.
     
  3. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Yea sorry I was arguing for the under assuming Skaggs was in, not Barria. I dont like the fact that Barria has a FIP close to 5. Not sure if that's enough to push the total over but I'm looking to back Seattle now as I think that's probably a better bet at this point
     
  4. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Barria's last 9 starts he's given up over 2 ER only twice and has a 42:12 K:BB ratio.

    He's not anything special, but he's def not trash either.
     
  5. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    He's carrying an 85.7% left on base percentage into this game. He's been a bit lucky that his ERA is so much lower than his FIP (3.4 versus 4.8). It's a bit amplified because he's not a ground ball pitcher who is going to have wonky numbers that saber metrics dont agree with. IDK, I think he's below average and I really wouldn't be shocked to see him lit up sometime soon and have his ERA balloon
     
  6. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I think there's something to that. His K:BB #'s are good though, and I know that's a stat you put decent stock in.

    Another thing to consider (which probably factors heavily into the left on base #'s of Barria) that's not considered a lot for MLB betting and o/u in particular: the Angels have arguably the best defensive players in the league (or among them anyway) at the 3 most important defensive positions. Maldonado at catcher, Simmons at SS, and Trout in CF save a hell of a lot of runs.
     
  7. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Well that's why I brought up the ground ball point. If he was a ground ball pitcher, you could argue the LOB % is understandable but he's not a ground ball pitcher. Barria is apparently 131st out of 145 pitchers in average exit velocity allowed (stat is cherry picked from here: https://bangthebook.com/mlb-betting-picks/) so I think it's much more likely that he's getting lucky
     
  8. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Well ground ball stats might lessen Simmons impact but that doesn't really matter much when it comes to Maldonado and Trout. If anything it makes Trout more valuable in that he's running down a lot of hard hit balls that other CF's don't get to. Coupled with how great Maldonado is (not just throwing but framing pitches, etc) and I think it's fair to say their defensive impact is fairly significant when it comes to how many runs LAA give up. And while Barria isn't necessarily a ground ball pitcher, the times he does get them Simmons is a wizard and is turning DP's or getting crucial outs.

    Certainly there's some luck involved but him wriggling off the hook can also be explained by his terrific defense bailing him out a lot. Which doesn't mean he's good, but it's a constant that's not going anywhere.
     
  9. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Top 3 pitchers on the Angels roster based on innings pitched:

    Richards = 67.5% LOB
    Heaney = 68.7% LOB
    Skaggs = 81.2% LOB (*he is a high ground ball % pitcher at nearly 47% so having a high percentage agrees with your notion that good defense helps)

    Barria = 85.7% while carrying the lowest K rate (striking out 1 less pitcher per 9 innings compared to the next closest guy) out of the 4 pitchers listed


    League average is consistently 70-72% LOB. It can't be sustainable
     
  10. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Probably not at the current clip, but there are also other variables that come into play. For example some guys have a high career % leaving guys on base because they are just more comfortable pitching out of the stretch than some other guys. Or they hold runners on better. Or a million other things. Obviously trying to specifically quantify that stuff is pretty difficult though.

    I tend to agree that Barria has probably gotten a bit lucky, but it's hard to tell just how much.
     
  11. iGnP

    iGnP Silver Belt

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    Only bet for me today is a small stab on the Rangers. Not confident but I think they can edge this game. 0.25u pre game and will bet another half unit if they look appealing live as the Tigers bullpen is garbage
     
  12. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I like o8.5 for Mil/Atl. Two good offenses (now that they are mostly healthy), hitter's park.

    Fried looks like he has good stuff and misses bats as a young prospect for the Braves, but he also has seemed to have some control issues. Chacin doesn't miss many bats at all and has been a bit choppy lately for the Brewers.
     
  13. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    I'm in for over 8.5 runs ATL/MIL. I was waiting to see if Freddie Freeman was playing. Just checked lineups, looks like he is in.
     
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  14. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Yep I put in a couple DK lineups for tonight and have the Braves stacked in one of them so also made sure Freddie was in there. Chacin can be good at times, but I just have a feeling he's gonna get hit hard tonight. Hot weather, hitter's park anyway, and he just doesn't strike anyone out.
     
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  15. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    I bought out of my Mil/Atl o8.5 trying to middle with u9.5. Hoping for a total of 9, otherwise will just pay the juice. Two good bullpens, and offenses stagnating after a fast start.
     
  16. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    7-2 Brewers. Yesssir!!!!!!
     
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  17. MT6ix

    MT6ix Blue Belt

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    That was a close one. I'll take it nonetheless.
     
  18. Kowboy Karl

    Kowboy Karl Brown Belt

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    Brazil to advance -170 2u
     
  19. Monster Meat

    Monster Meat Green Belt

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    Croatia to advance -190
    Under 2.5 goals -200
     
  20. mkess101

    mkess101 85 or bust...

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    Killing the world cup with unders. Parlayed the 2 games today u2.5, thought I was done when Croatia evened it up at 1 in the first half. Scoreless 2nd half and I cash again.

    I also have my Belgium to win WC at +695 still alive.
     

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