Occams Razor predicts Diaz The Winner over Pettis

[Deleted member 567059]

Nate is not early as good of a boxer as people think he is

But I think he submits Pettis on the ground tomorrow

 

[GordoBarraBJJ]

So you're saying nate is going to sneak a razor in his shorts and then cut pettis' neck?

Damn

 

[BluntForceTrama]

Nate is not early as good of a boxer as people think he is

But I think he submits Pettis on the ground tomorrow

Really ? Nate hits just about every fighter he faces and hits them a lot.

Pettis isn’t some defensive wizard on the feet. His leg kicks will get Nate to notice initially but they’ll fade as they always seem to do. He’s getting blasted tomorrow and is going to bleed all over the carpet

 

[Deleted member 567059]

Really ? Nate hits just about every fighter he faces and hits them a lot.

Pettis isn’t some defensive wizard on the feet. He’s getting blasted tomorrow and is going to bleed all over the carpet

Quite possibly.

But Conor outboxed him in the rematch, so did RDA and Bendo

 

[Ether13]

TS trying real hard here.

 

[Natman2939]

occams razor is the principle that basically eliminates overly complicated and presumptuous arguments or scenarios.

Arguments under this are generally much more simple and to the point and most of all more likely to happen.


Here are the main premises in this fight for Diaz


1) Diaz is the supreme striker here in terms of boxing skills. Leg kicks or not, he will hit Pettis and will likely hit him many times tomorrow night

2) Pettis has a paper skinned face. Especially lately. People seem to forget how easily this guy cuts.


It may be overly simplistic but under these two premises it is hard to see thus any other way despite Pettis’s unpredictability and showtime character.

I believe under this argument, Pettis will succumb or be forced to surrender this fight.

In the 3rd round Imho.

Let us revisit

That's a terrible way to use Occam's Razor in this situation.

A better one would be something like this: In his entire 19-11 career, Nate Diaz has only won a single fight against someone was both high caliber and good at throwing kicks (and willing to do so) and that was Donald Cerrone.

The closest second would be Conor who didn't throw virtually any kicks in their 1st fight, and only threw a few small leg kicks early in their 2nd before abandoning it and going back to a mostly punching style.

Occam's Razor = Nate virtually always loses to kickers and Pettis is an amazing kicker, probably one of the top 5 in the sport. Therefore Pettis wins.

You could also Occam Razor their careers in general (the man who won and defended the belt vs a guy who always came up short in title fights and #1 contender fights)

And Occam Razor the whole 3 year's off thing...

Nate's best chance here (on paper) is the fact that he'll have more power at 170 and Pettis is a little small for the weight class but Pettis just knocked out Stephen Thompson, and oh by the way in his 8 losses, Pettis has only suffered 2 TKO losses. One of them was a corner stoppage via Tony who cuts people in ways Nate just doesn't and the other was a body tko by Max Holloway...trying to emulate that is probably Nate's best shot. Not hoping his barrage of punches will cause cuts.

 

[BetoG695]

LOL....im not saying diaz has no way to win but Occam's razor says pettis looses due to cut? not how it works.... the fighter with highest win % wins....which is pettis... according to Occam's razor...

 

[BluntForceTrama]

That's a terrible way to use Occam's Razor in this situation.

A better one would be something like this: In his entire 19-11 career, Nate Diaz has only won a single fight against someone was both high caliber and good at throwing kicks (and willing to do so) and that was Donald Cerrone.

The closest second would be Conor who didn't throw virtually any kicks in their 1st fight, and only threw a few small leg kicks early in their 2nd before abandoning it and going back to a mostly punching style.

Occam's Razor = Nate virtually always loses to kickers and Pettis is an amazing kicker, probably one of the top 5 in the sport. Therefore Pettis wins.

You could also Occam Razor their careers in general (the man who won and defended the belt vs a guy who always came up short in title fights and #1 contender fights)

And Occam Razor the whole 3 year's off thing...

Nate's best chance here (on paper) is the fact that he'll have more power at 170 and Pettis is a little small for the weight class but Pettis just knocked out Stephen Thompson, and oh by the way in his 8 losses, Pettis has only suffered 2 TKO losses. One of them was a corner stoppage via Tony who cuts people in ways Nate just doesn't and the other was a body tko by Max Holloway...trying to emulate that is probably Nate's best shot. Not hoping his barrage of punches will cause cuts.

How is that Occams razor? You're making mostly baseless presumptions here namely this business of him facing leg kickers in the past, which he hasn't really (as you stated).

My argument is based on what Ive seen Nate do in the past vs a fighter (Pettis) who doesn't match up well to him (Imo). My argument is as simple as it gets and I chose not to get too wordy. I based that on my opinion that most fans who entered my thread were already knowledgeable on the two fighters and what're capable of against each other.

Pettis isn't knocking Diaz out. Based on what we've all seen
Pettis doesn't have the endurance or ability to absorb punishment over the long haul.
They both cut easy but Imo, Diaz isn't getting hit in the face in this fight the way Pettis will be and he will bleed out.

Pettis's only way to winning this is by decision or submission both of which are highly unlikely in my book.


Pettis's kicks will get Nates attention early on but once Pettis tastes those reflexive counters to which he'll have no answer to, those kicks will fade.

Hence....Nate will blast Pettis and he will bleed out tomorrow night.

 

[BluntForceTrama]

LOL....im not saying diaz has no way to win but Occam's razor says pettis looses due to cut? not how it works.... the fighter with highest win % wins....which is pettis... according to Occam's razor...

Occams razor shouldn't be used like this in MMA fights because theres too much presumption.

It is better used in a fighter vs fighter situation where specificity is key and less assumption results.

 

[Natman2939]

How is that Occams razor? You're making mostly baseless presumptions here namely this business of him facing leg kickers in the past, which he hasn't really (as you stated).

My argument is based on what Ive seen Nate do in the past vs a fighter (Pettis) who doesn't match up well to him (Imo). My argument is as simple as it gets and I chose not to get too wordy. I based that on my opinion that most fans who entered my thread were already knowledgeable on the two fighters and what're capable of against each other.

Pettis isn't knocking Diaz out. Based on what we've all seen
Pettis doesn't have the endurance or ability to absorb punishment over the long haul.
They both cut easy but Imo, Diaz isn't getting hit in the face in this fight the way Pettis will be and he will bleed out.

Pettis's only way to winning this is by decision or submission both of which are highly unlikely in my book.


Pettis's kicks will get Nates attention early on but once Pettis tastes those reflexive counters to which he'll have no answer to, those kicks will fade.

Hence....Nate will blast Pettis and he will bleed out tomorrow night.

You're basing your opinion on false assumptions... like Diaz being the supreme striker of the two. Based on what?

And the fact that Pettis bleeds easy, can you remind me of some fights that he bled in OTHER than the tony ferguson fight that just happened?

You're best argument is about endurance. I would grant you that one....if this were a 5 round fight. Too bad for Nate it's only 3.
Some of your arguments even work both ways. "Pettis' only way to win this is by decision or submission..." as opposed to Nate's options being what? TKO? Didn't I just explain that Anthony Pettis doesn't get TKO'd.

Max was the only one that legit tko'd him ever. Nate is not Max. And Pettis' kicks will do more than get his attention. You are downplaying that way too much.
Even the idea that "pettis isn't knocking him out, based on what we've all seen" Well I've only seen Pettis fight at 170 once and he knocked out Stephen Thompson, who even Woodely couldn't knock out.

Nate has been legit tko'd before (by josh thompson)

but again Occam's Razor is all about just looking at the bigger picture and thinking about what is more likely, reasonable, and logical based on what you know.

In that case it's more likely that the guy who's clearly had the better career, and has more variety of strikes, including his opponents big blaring obvious weakness (leg kicks), and has actually been active, is going to beat the guy who really hasn't had the best career, who's best wins are not really that great aside from Conor, and who has a huge weakness to kicks...and has sat out 3 years.

THAT is how occam's razor works.

 

[sdpdude9]

 

[gevoudane]

Occam razor predicts Pettis over Diaz via leg kicks.

 

[BluntForceTrama]

Legs kicks

You're basing your opinion on false assumptions... like Diaz being the supreme striker of the two. Based on what?

And the fact that Pettis bleeds easy, can you remind me of some fights that he bled in OTHER than the tony ferguson fight that just happened?

You're best argument is about endurance. I would grant you that one....if this were a 5 round fight. Too bad for Nate it's only 3.
Some of your arguments even work both ways. "Pettis' only way to win this is by decision or submission..." as opposed to Nate's options being what? TKO? Didn't I just explain that Anthony Pettis doesn't get TKO'd.

Max was the only one that legit tko'd him ever. Nate is not Max. And Pettis' kicks will do more than get his attention. You are downplaying that way too much.
Even the idea that "pettis isn't knocking him out, based on what we've all seen" Well I've only seen Pettis fight at 170 once and he knocked out Stephen Thompson, who even Woodely couldn't knock out.

Nate has been legit tko'd before (by josh thompson)

but again Occam's Razor is all about just looking at the bigger picture and thinking about what is more likely, reasonable, and logical based on what you know.

In that case it's more likely that the guy who's clearly had the better career, and has more variety of strikes, including his opponents big blaring obvious weakness (leg kicks), and has actually been active, is going to beat the guy who really hasn't had the best career, who's best wins are not really that great aside from Conor, and who has a huge weakness to kicks...and has sat out 3 years.

THAT is how occam's razor works.

Sorry. I only meant he has much better hands than Pettis. Way better. And I don’t feel like I’m overrating him there. He’s blasted nearly every one of his opponents over his career. Every one of them has gotten touched by Diaz. There is no presumption in saying Pettis is likely getting lit up tomorrow standing.

 

[Mtlguy]

Diaz starts too slow. 5 round fight he beats Pettis. He loses a decision in a 3 rounder

 

[BetoG695]

Occams razor shouldn't be used like this in MMA fights because theres too much presumption.

It is better used in a fighter vs fighter situation where specificity is key and less assumption results.

absolutely

 

[Natman2939]

Legs kicks


Sorry. I only meant he has much better hands than Pettis. Way better. And I don’t feel like I’m overrating him there. He’s blasted nearly every one of his opponents over his career. Every one of them has gotten touched by Diaz. There is no presumption in saying Pettis is likely getting lit up tomorrow standing.

That is much more reasonable