Political Betting Thread

UAK said:
I agree that her odds are not that good and I think you're right people looking for easy $$ after trump and brexit but I actually think +300 doesn't present value here. I could be dead wrong. I was hoping for a lot better odds before I checked and was disappointed to see that le pen was only +300. If you read my post history I've basically been betting on every politically incorrect candidate so far but this time is different.

Full disclaimer: I got $0 on FE. Predictions: Le Pen wins first round but won't win the election.
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yeah I didn't bit at that price really, I mean I thought she would drift if macron made it through to 2nd round which he has, and la penn's drifted a lot too +620 currently! so there's a lot more room for swings in the odds at that price. a lot can happen in a couple of weeks before the 2nd round.
 
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1st round is very close atm, macron leads by a couple % but la penn is catching apparently. don't think she'll bridge the gap but I'm not knowledgeable at all about what results are left to come in, bar the overseas results that should be heavily in favour of macron, even more so seen as they can vote twice
 
Roads55 said:
betfair exchange, and it was :cool:

that was before the results started coming out a couple hours ago though. she's 1.01 currently... still free money i guess hah
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You could almost make a case for 1.01 being value.. lol, she must be 99,9% to finish in top 2 at this point. Even before the counting started I would have laid the house on 1.25. How much did you get in? That was probably the best line in the whole election, rare to see -400 being so fkn awesome.
 
UAK said:
You could almost make a case for 1.01 being value.. lol, she must be 99,9% to finish in top 2 at this point. Even before the counting started I would have laid the house on 1.25. How much did you get in? That was probably the best line in the whole election, rare to see -400 being so fkn awesome.
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it probably is value at this point tbh probably just people wanting to get their liability back cheaply to use elsewhere. I didn't get a lot on it at all tbh small amount, I Was trading the outright market and 1st round winner at the same time so I missed the boat mostly on that market. was being cautious as well as it's a lot harder to get real time info than the US election for example.
 
+ the wifi where I'm at is spotty tonight, can't be too risky
 
Think it goes like we kind of thought, Le Pen gets to the 2nd round but can't do much there. Think my decision to pass on this election was fairly good, missed some lines that had value but got really confused by these french fucks at other times.
 
Since I can't understand French, I have turned to "expert" Nate Silver for analysis. It seems that Le Pen is behind by some 20% vs Macron.
 
Things are getting interesting, Melenchon said he couldn't chose between the two candidates so there is a risk of the left just staying home.

Juncker congratulating Macron can also be a kiss of death, the French doesn't really like the EU that Juncker represents.

I'm taking a stab at Le Pen @6.00, I think there is value there. She probably won't win, but it's worth a shot.
 
Shoulder said:
Things are getting interesting, Melenchon said he couldn't chose between the two candidates so there is a risk of the left just staying home.

Juncker congratulating Macron can also be a kiss of death, the French doesn't really like the EU that Juncker represents.

I'm taking a stab at Le Pen @6.00, I think there is value there. She probably won't win, but it's worth a shot.
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I'm thinking she may trade lower at some point but I'm having a hard time seeing her winning o/r. i'm taking a week of this politics crap, made my money, too much politics is bad for my brain lol.
busy time for the rest of the year though,with the UK and german elections, at least the UK ones is easy enough to cap, torries are going to hump labour into oblivian. tory majority @ 1.16ish actually looks value atm haha
 
so la penn is still like 20+ points down in the polls and she's shortened slightly to 9.4 which i don't really get. macron @1.11 looks value all things considering, surely he will trade lower than that.. bar a huge scandal which seems to of failed so far when la penn was talking about his secret offshore bank accounts.
 
Roads55 said:
so la penn is still like 20+ points down in the polls and she's shortened slightly to 9.4 which i don't really get. macron @1.11 looks value all things considering, surely he will trade lower than that.. bar a huge scandal which seems to of failed so far when la penn was talking about his secret offshore bank accounts.
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Unless French polling is far worse than US polling, fair to say this one is over.
 
Roads55 said:
so la penn is still like 20+ points down in the polls and she's shortened slightly to 9.4 which i don't really get. macron @1.11 looks value all things considering, surely he will trade lower than that.. bar a huge scandal which seems to of failed so far when la penn was talking about his secret offshore bank accounts.
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put some respek on my name
 
Roads55 said:
so la penn is still like 20+ points down in the polls and she's shortened slightly to 9.4 which i don't really get. macron @1.11 looks value all things considering, surely he will trade lower than that.. bar a huge scandal which seems to of failed so far when la penn was talking about his secret offshore bank accounts.
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I'm with you here. Where are her new votes going to come from? The lefty and centrist votes that were split in the first vote will now almost exclusively go to Marcon. There's just no realistic path to victroy for Le Pen here. I'm on Marcon as a 10-1 favorite.
 
Barkus said:
I'm with you here. Where are her new votes going to come from? The lefty and centrist votes that were split in the first vote will now almost exclusively go to Marcon. There's just no realistic path to victroy for Le Pen here. I'm on Marcon as a 10-1 favorite.
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he's down to 1.06 today, currently still a little value on that i reckon, he should be lower still, the hack is the only thing keeping the odds from being 1.01/1.02. that and casuals lumping on la penn because of some perceived brexit/trump parallels.
 
Unibet had 2.0 for Le Penn getting more than 39.5% of the votes. She was at 38% in polls and 1.5 % of lurker turnout sounds plausible, so I gave it a shot.
 
Yotsuya said:
Unibet had 2.0 for Le Penn getting more than 39.5% of the votes. She was at 38% in polls and 1.5 % of lurker turnout sounds plausible, so I gave it a shot.
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slightly lower turnout than the last election also which may favor la penn as her voters are more loyal
 
lol, la penn's father came out saying she isn't fit to be president, seems he's pissed after she kicked him out of his own party.
 
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