Political Betting Thread

[joenewbie]

I haven't seen any lines on whether he skips the debates or not. I think that would be interesting.

I think he could skip the debates. I think there is about 0 chance he drops out of the race completely.

 

[Omni1]

That almost seems like free money. I wonder how they decided those odds?

Because it wad decided months ago that he would drop out. It was also known that Biden was suffering from at least one type of brain disorder & was on a steep cognitive decline. It was either February or March when I posted this. Infowars was the first to report Biden suffering from a cognitive decline. Once again Alex is proven right. He almost always is.

 

[longway]

I think he could skip the debates. I think there is about 0 chance he drops out of the race completely.

I would love to see the line though.

Drop out or not is not a bet i would take. I think the line is about right. Its unlikely, but hiden could be on a steep decline.

He took part in dnc debates, but i question whether he can do debates anymore, as it requires speaking off the cuff for extended periods.

His public appearances are carefully managed.

Here he is making another clownish cock up despite being given as much assistance as humanly possible. His caregivers have now noted he doesnt even know how to use a teleprompter anymore and will read literally everything that on it, and he wont even notice the mistake.



If trump can make a dent in his kindly old uncle persona, he wont be able to recover, as he offers nothing else but this fantasy.

 

[longway]

I think we can see the lootocrat election tactics shaping up, its an extension of their tactics of the last 4 years. They are going to do what trump did in 2016, and lead the news cycle, but with non-stop smears about trump and force trump to respond to them.

eg forget about the riots, and throw a dead cat on the table, ie recent fake news story from the atlantic by a well known shill.

To win again, trump needs to be able to lead the news cycle and force Hiden to respond to his agenda, but he has a ft job now,so it will be much more difficult to devote the necessary time and effort.

 

[Joedaman55]

Holy shit, this Trump ad is going to make people go crazy below. I’ve never seen an ad like that in politics, Wild:

 

[longway]

Holy shit, this Trump ad is going to make people go crazy below. I’ve never seen an ad like that in politics, Wild:

I think we can safely say the gloves are off. I'm surprised they didnt use the guys who were chanting 'death to america'.

I like this one too. I love the way they dub harris's cackle over the the mayhem.

They hit him, he is going to hit back 10x as hard.

 

[longway]

I had some trouble with my bets on betfair. i decided to cash out everything for now. I think the Trump side is a little overbought currently anyway. Its all left a bad taste in my mouth. I might look for an entry sometime prior to the debates if the lines soften a little more, in another book.

 

[Joedaman55]

Well a political hand grenade was just thrown in the election with the RBG death, not sure how it’ll shift thing but this will likely shift the odds.

 

[longway]

From a betting perspective, nice to see that the GOP is going to play hard ball, and use Hunter Biden to bring down dementia joe.

Hiden's image is nice, but dim, take away the nice and all that is left is a corrupt dimwit. I think this report will provide ample ammunition to chip away at the hiden image enough over the next 6 weeks to make a difference, but will it be enough? COVID hobbled trump among a key demographic - over 65s.

If I start to see a shift there, then that will be a big indicator that things are really drifting away from hiden and the hoe.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/23/gop-senators-release-explosive-report-on-hunter-biden-burisma/

 

[longway]

Initial response to the debate is that the odds have widened further. Last night Trump was at +120ish now at +145. Debate pretty much a disaster, much like all Trump debates, but I enjoyed it. None of this fake decorum and piety crap when he is there.

 

[Roads55]

It was definitely entertaining. nobody won imo, Biden definitely did less bad. Contrary to many ppl's expectations he didn't implode and had a decent performance(by his own low standards).
Those biden odds looking pretty tasty right now. he got bet down to 1.7 during the debates with trump hitting 2.5 now on betfair. books opening trump at 2.3 ish, I wonder how confident trump bettors are now and if they will load up more on this better price.

 

[Yotsuya]

Yeah, I think all Biden needs is defensive victories on debates. Regretting my small Trump action. Got triggered...

 

[longway]

It was definitely entertaining. nobody won imo, Biden definitely did less bad. Contrary to many ppl's expectations he didn't implode and had a decent performance(by his own low standards).
Those biden odds looking pretty tasty right now. he got bet down to 1.7 during the debates with trump hitting 2.5 now on betfair. books opening trump at 2.3 ish, I wonder how confident trump bettors are now and if they will load up more on this better price.

I think its oversold now, and have dipped back in again at +145. I expect some more line movement back to +120ish, where I think the real price is.

I think marginal Trump victory. You can see his themes. Hacking away at Hunter to goad Biden and chip away at his nice-guy image, trying to get Biden to paint himself into a corner in regard to dealing with the fractured base of the DNC, and trying to get him to alienate one, or ideally, both wings. He got Biden to expose himself about not going to do M4A, no GND etc. He needs to hammer Biden about fracking in PA and what Biden is going to do about packing the SC etc. A lot of openings missed. but plenty of stuff there to work on in next debate, but Trump not showing enough discipline enough to push hard on some promising avenues of attack.

I am reluctant to let money ride past election as results going to be a monumental shitshow bc of the use of universal mail-in ballots, you can't overstate how bad it's going to be imo, its a crazy idea, with eventually the SC deciding who the winner is, and the losing side crying foul.

I can only hope that California does decide to secede from the union if Trump wins. I'm tired of listening to my uber-liberal cousins whittter on about systemic racism, implicit racism, structural racism, that racism, and this racism, they are just so fcuking obsessed by racism. I just don't get it. It's like they think the black community are their pets or something.

+165 now on Trump, bought a little more, let's hope I am right and people are panicking as they expected Biden to pee himself or something and that he didnt has sent them into a dither.

 

[Roads55]

I think its oversold now, and have dipped back in again at +145. I expect some more line movement back to +120ish, where I think the real price is.

I think marginal Trump victory. You can see his themes. Hacking away at Hunter to goad Biden and chip away at his nice-guy image, trying to get Biden to paint himself into a corner in regard to dealing with the fractured base of the DNC, and trying to get him to alienate one, or ideally, both wings. He got Biden to expose himself about not going to do M4A, no GND etc. He needs to hammer Biden about fracking in PA and what Biden is going to do about packing the SC etc. A lot of openings missed. but plenty of stuff there to work on in next debate, but Trump not showing enough discipline enough to push hard on some promising avenues of attack.

I am reluctant to let money ride past election as results going to be a monumental shitshow bc of the use of universal mail-in ballots, you can't overstate how bad it's going to be imo, its a crazy idea, with eventually the SC deciding who the winner is, and the losing side crying foul.

I can only hope that California does decide to secede from the union if Trump wins. I'm tired of listening to my uber-liberal cousins whittter on about systemic racism, implicit racism, structural racism, that racism, and this racism, they are just so fcuking obsessed by racism. I just don't get it. It's like they think the black community are their pets or something.

I really don't, trump's drifted out to 2.64 now, I don't see the line shortening short term, good time for scalping/normal trading though, the market is becoming more fluid at last.
the damage was done last night, he came across as insensitive, bullying, very annoying, unlikable, and largely I thought his attacks didn't really work, seems like his plan was to overload biden hoping for gaffe after gaffe, but relative to expectations biden did better than expected. there is room for trump to hammer biden on m4a and gnd for sure, especially if he talks about harris who's a lot more progressive than biden on paper, and try and angle that biden will be controlled by her and other ppl further left. trump seemed a bit sloppy somehow, maybe in his preparation?

agree about letting the money ride though, need more concrete reasons before i do that. still a lot of potential for fuckery. I bet biden earlier at like 1.75ish for like 6u, probably gonna add on any drifts and look to offload lower.
Harris drifted also which makes sense, I sold half my bets on her in the mid to low 100's and sold most of the rest earlier around 200/1. gonna rebet a little bit when she hits like 250/1 or so just in case.

yeah It's really ridiculous how many liberals are so focused on race issues, when there's much more important issues at hand. Americans are so sheltered from the outside world they have no idea how good they have it for the most part. many would be shocked at real systematic racism, homophobia, lack of womens rights etc if they ever visited other countries. this goes for the right too although maybe not as much but both sides aren't really coming up with any solutions for these issues and neither side really looks like they want too and are content to play their part in what seems to be becoming a sport of political tribes.

 

[Roads55]

So atm we have:

Betfair: Biden 1.62 Trump 2.68, around 1.5 million bet during the debate pushing the total amount matched on the market to over £100 million! trump's odds rebounded slightly post debate to 2.44ish before drifting right out over the next 6 hours or so. looking at the order book, it's pretty thin on the ask side for trump. the bid side is much more meaty though.

Smarkets: Biden 1.59 Trump 2.74!! not sure why this is an outlier, usually they follow betfair closer.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner
Euro books offering a more generous trump price than US books generally. majority of euro books around 2.4, and 1 or to even 2.5.

US books like dimes, bol etc seem mostly around 2.3 for trump and 1.67 or so for biden. I can't check bovada or bookmaker however. Just speculating but it seems that there is a discrepancy between the amount of trump money being bet in the US vs rest of the world.

odds could be fairly calm today as everyone absorbs how the debate was seen by everyone.

 

[bruthead]

Biden won because he kept it together and Trump looked like a child.

Trump's attacks don't land as well now compared to 2016 because he is the active President rather than the outsider attacking the establishment. And Biden is more likeable than Hillary.

They need to change the debate format to allow longer answers with some depth. It's reality TV garbage. And although people are criticising it heavily now, I can't remember seeing a serious policy debate in one of these, not that I watch them all. It's always just soundbites and people trying to score cheap points.

If I was Biden I would pull out of the remaining debates, saying Trump won't stick to the rules or have a civil debate.

 

[longway]

Biden won because he kept it together and Trump looked like a child.

Trump's attacks don't land as well now compared to 2016 because he is the active President rather than the outsider attacking the establishment. And Biden is more likeable than Hillary.

They need to change the debate format to allow longer answers with some depth. It's reality TV garbage. And although people are criticising it heavily now, I can't remember seeing a serious policy debate in one of these, not that I watch them all. It's always just soundbites and people trying to score cheap points.

If I was Biden I would pull out of the remaining debates, saying Trump won't stick to the rules or have a civil debate.

I would agree that Biden's best strategy would be not to do the debates and his biggest asset is his likability.

 

[TrueAscension]

They need to put both candidates in their own silent booths so they are not able to interrupt each other constantly like children on a playground.

In classic debate, Trump got man-handled. In 2020 debate, Trump wrecked Biden.

 

[Oblivian]

As someone who isn't really a fan of either candidate, I thought Biden won the debate or at least based on my expectations. These candidates are so polarizing that I don't believe the debates will sway that many.

 

[Joedaman55]

My opinion was that scoring based on pure debate rules, Biden wins; however, debates are won in elections based on how people are persuaded to vote and I think Trump won big. Joe has a few good lines like the Suburb statement and I liked his energy at times. People may not agree, but from a sales side, Trump was near flawless.

The big thing about judging sales/debates is post debate, think, and say “what do I remember from everything, what was relevant”. This will be different for everyone but my two big things was that Hunter Biden was kicked out of the military due to a drug problem and became an energy exec afterward and that Biden’s idea to pay for the green movement is somehow saving money on buildings with trees to make up the $100T cost.

I know people who lean blue thought Biden dominated the debate, people who lean red say the same about Trump. People undecided, it’s really tough as I’m not sure their biggest concern. I think it’s reopening the economy from COVID and Trump won big there. It’s tough to see where Biden would shift someone undecided based on the arguments yesterday especially since Trump is running on his same platform that got him elected four years ago. I’ve noticed people don’t like Trump’s mannerisms but he did the same things four years ago with better results than most predicted.