Political Betting Thread

[Roads55]

very boring, and unmemorable debate. pence probably won, but neither certainly shined. his obvious question dodging was annoying and I think he did it way too obviously, he got lucky harris was reluctant to attack him and the mod didn't press him on it. Harris did ok in parts but in others her personality traits she's been trying to eliminate shone through like her smile, body language etc, at least she didn't laugh much. A small victory for trump translates into possibly stemming a small amount of biden's momentum but it definitely doesn't help trump gain new votes to close the growing gap. let's see what the ratings were now.

 

[Roads55]

I guess you better unload the truck on Biden then.

Nope, not the best time to unload after he's shortened so much. I have added some at these odds though, they are still inflated from where they should be imo. I mainly bet biden hard around 1.67-1.8 with a couple unit freeroll from much higher/selling of some of my harris bets when she got bet down hard after winning VP.

currently I'm roughly at:
Biden +11 units
Trump -10.5u
pence +10u
harris +50u
and +13u on the field.

got some a little BTC action on biden too at 1.67 i think it was.

Scalping has been profitable since the first debate, eliminating a couple units liability, and I've got some bids in to hedge trump should he drift some more. certainly looking to lower trump liability though, as biden is still obviously a risky candidate, but with every day that passes his negatives become less important.
I also have a couple unit freeroll on "next president to lose popular vote" which you can still get at around 3.6 for "yes". that's a great trump hedge looking at his national polling deficit. I will probably add to that, and then look to let more of the biden ML bets ride out or look to bet against trump ML more providing I have a good couple weeks betting mma etc. I'm looking for biden to shorten to around 1.33-1.4 or something like that, but I'm wondering exactly how much trump's hype and additional bettors might hinder that.

 

[Roads55]

to put it in perspective a little, £59,000,000 has been wagered on trump on betfair, and only £43,600,000 on biden. most trump money is now underwater. and most casuals betting this in general are probably trump leaning/biased. Could easily be a big increase in biden money coming in with a number of trump bettors hedging their positions along with ppl adding to their biden positions.
Seems as though this affect is even more prominent in the US using offshore books with a heavy trump contingent happily betting him at 2.3-2.5 (idk what he's been on books the last week since the debates though.) when his real price is much closer to 3.0 minus the books juice.

 

[Roads55]

This is pretty crazy because I actually thought his covid diagnosis could be a boost for him. It created an opportunity for sympathy, distracting from the tax return leaks and poor debate performance. Biden was even handing him a pass by holding off the negative ads till he gets better. He could've come out with an empathetic attitude, showing he understands what people have been going through. Instead, he rips his mask off, telling everyone it's no big deal after getting exclusive top-tier treatment, and denies a new stimulus package that would almost undoubtedly be a political boon for him. This isn't 5D chess, this is just absurdly bad politics based on sheer arrogance.

It does have me thinking though - maybe republican leadership has already given up on Trump's re-election chances and wants to prioritize what they can do before Trump's out of office. Trump's justification for delaying the stimulus is that he wants to focus on the SCOTUS nomination (because he somehow can't do both?). Polling shows voters overwhelmingly agree that the winner of the election should appoint the next justice, and idk the stats on this but I'd imagine voters overwhelmingly want a new stimulus package. But if Trump's going to lose anyway, the SCOTUS nomination is definitely best for the republican agenda. I wouldn't be surprised if Mitch etc are just recognizing the situation and pushing Trump to do what they want instead of what will help his election.

I mean I get the logic but Trump being empathetic with talking about his diagnosis just did not seem plausible for him given his inability to change his egocentric personality, he has just not changed his approach significantly in any aspect of his campaign really, I saw no reason why he would with this. the optics of him getting it were terrible considering his dismissive nature of it before.
Additionally it's even worse for him as that destroys his portrayal of biden hiding in his basement which now in hindsight looks very sensible to the electorate, combine that with trump and his entourage not wearing masks at the debate when biden's did makes it even worse. I think like 15 of trump's circle tested positive!
will be interesting to keep an eye out for potential ppl fleeing the ship before it sinks. could be some of that happening already. conway went a couple months ago, and parscale (fired) too

 

[longway]

What are peoples' opinions of the trafalgar group polling that claims to be able to account for the shy trumpers?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-trade/id1496616116?i=1000493525954

In this podcast, the owner breaks down their method, to a degree, and provides predictions; quite long, but bettors might find it interesting.

 

[longway]

I mean I get the logic but Trump being empathetic with talking about his diagnosis just did not seem plausible for him given his inability to change his egocentric personality, he has just not changed his approach significantly in any aspect of his campaign really, I saw no reason why he would with this. the optics of him getting it were terrible considering his dismissive nature of it before.
Additionally it's even worse for him as that destroys his portrayal of biden hiding in his basement which now in hindsight looks very sensible to the electorate, combine that with trump and his entourage not wearing masks at the debate when biden's did makes it even worse. I think like 15 of trump's circle tested positive!
will be interesting to keep an eye out for potential ppl fleeing the ship before it sinks. could be some of that happening already. conway went a couple months ago, and parscale (fired) too

Not to rag on you, but being fired is not the tiniest bit like fleeing, and not only that, he is still with the trump campaign but in a different capacity. Conway's departure is linked to her daughter acting out on social media. You can only imagine the weirdness in that household, and the daughter seems to have taken the dad's side. I think you are seeing things that don't exist.

 

[rev0lver]

What are peoples' opinions of the trafalgar group polling that claims to be able to account for the shy trumpers?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-trade/id1496616116?i=1000493525954

In this podcast, the owner breaks down their method, to a degree, and provides predictions; quite long, but bettors might find it interesting.

Only listened to a little bit, but I don't really put much stock in the "shy trump voters" theory. There just isn't much evidence for it. Online polling should remove most social desirability effects yet they haven't been producing different results than phone polling. There were a lot of potential variables that can explain 2016 in relation to the polls, and I'd put that theory pretty far down the list.

Should point out though that while Trafalgar was pretty accurate on a couple states, they were pretty far off on states like Nevada. They missed pretty widely in some 2018 races too, despite again getting a couple right. The guy has a weird ego about him and likes to tout when they got things right, but Fivethirtyeight shows them having a worse overall track record at calling races than most major pollsters. I don't think the evidence is there to say they're inherently more accurate. But they're also generally showing Biden winning in this cycle, just by a lower margin than some other pollsters. I'd probably give Biden +1 or 2 points over anything Trafalgar shows.

Not to rag on you, but being fired is not the tiniest bit like fleeing, and not only that, he is still with the trump campaign but in a different capacity

Not anymore I believe since he had the breakdown&arrest. I think he said he's calling it quits and doesn't want the distractions a month out from the election.

 

[rev0lver]

very boring, and unmemorable debate. pence probably won, but neither certainly shined. his obvious question dodging was annoying and I think he did it way too obviously, he got lucky harris was reluctant to attack him and the mod didn't press him on it. Harris did ok in parts but in others her personality traits she's been trying to eliminate shone through like her smile, body language etc, at least she didn't laugh much. A small victory for trump translates into possibly stemming a small amount of biden's momentum but it definitely doesn't help trump gain new votes to close the growing gap. let's see what the ratings were now.

Every answer Harris gave had me wishing she went harder and wishing she brought up obvious points that she didn't. But I think she was restrained on purpose. Post-debate focus groups picked at her as being condescending and aggressive, when she could've definitely been a LOT more condescending and aggressive.

To me, I thought Pence came across like an absolute sociopath. Just blatantly lying on certain points where it's clear he's doing it on purpose and not out of ignorance. And constantly dodging questions. I can't remember what questions he actually gave an answer to. But... at the end of the day I think his calm demeanor and old-school politician style gave him an edge here. He's far more effective than Trump on the personality side, which resonates with a lot of voters who aren't as tuned-in.

I don't think this debate is going to be very consequential though, and I wouldn't say Pence blew anything out of the water. I remember Biden's VP debates where I thought he did piss poor, especially against Ryan, and it didn't matter much in the end. People might be paying attention more this time around, but the president is where the focus is and this will probably be forgotten by the next Trump-Biden one.

 

[Joedaman55]

^Whoriss cratered as she normally does, but not sure if it will make a difference.




I think there were things that could affect how people vote, but I wonder if the trump style debates are what actually moves the needle. Of course, you can say it backfired on him, but this style leaves a lasting impression.

If people understand the policy stuff, maybe, but there weren’t any big visuals either side brought out besides those I mentioned earlier.

I personally think Trump is one of the strongest debaters I’ve ever seen, maybe the best. He may lose on technical debate points but he uses high level salesman tricks to sway voters. You can’t beat the competition he’s beat politically if you weren’t a fantastic debater. The field he’s went through to become president was the toughest one I’ve ever seen. Lol and everyone kept picking against him week after week in the Republican Primary with the exact same criteria I’m hearing now. I’d readjust my theory if the criticism was good at picking results but it hasn’t. Pundits are usually the worst at predicting results as well.

We’ll see what happens this election but I still have him a large favorite as of today.

 

[Joedaman55]

What are peoples' opinions of the trafalgar group polling that claims to be able to account for the shy trumpers?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-political-trade/id1496616116?i=1000493525954

In this podcast, the owner breaks down their method, to a degree, and provides predictions; quite long, but bettors might find it interesting.

I’ll check out the podcast later but Scott Adams did one or two polls showing that they exist in a large number. He cited it’s likely due to the punishment a Trump supporter gets if he publicly announces support (financially and becoming a tribal outcast). I’d say this is accurate as people probably don’t trust pollsters.

This is the second reason I think polls are so far off behind the cherry-picking of voters being polled.

 

[rev0lver]

If people understand the policy stuff, maybe, but there weren’t any big visuals either side brought out besides those I mentioned earlier.

I personally think Trump is one of the strongest debaters I’ve ever seen, maybe the best. He may lose on technical debate points but he uses high level salesman tricks to sway voters. You can’t beat the competition he’s beat politically if you weren’t a fantastic debater. The field he’s went through to become president was the toughest one I’ve ever seen. Lol and everyone kept picking against him week after week in the Republican Primary with the exact same criteria I’m hearing now. I’d readjust my theory if the criticism was good at picking results but it hasn’t. Pundits are usually the worst at predicting results as well.

We’ll see what happens this election but I still have him a large favorite as of today.

Didn't virtually every debate poll have Biden winning the debate by 20-30 points? Even a lot of right-wing pundits were basically like "Trump was embarrassingly bad". There were right-leaning focus groups calling him a crackhead. I haven't seen any swaying aside from conservatives questioning their vote.

While I think Trump is a piss poor debater, I think he uses some good tactics, but a lot of them are starting to fall flat, especially when he now has to defend his presidential record instead of bullshitting his way through. He's doing awfully bad now and debates are only furthering his decline.

 

[longway]

Didn't virtually every debate poll have Biden winning the debate by 20-30 points? Even a lot of right-wing pundits were basically like "Trump was embarrassingly bad". There were right-leaning focus groups calling him a crackhead. I haven't seen any swaying aside from conservatives questioning their vote.

While I think Trump is a piss poor debater, I think he uses some good tactics, but a lot of them are starting to fall flat, especially when he now has to defend his presidential record instead of bullshitting his way through. He's doing awfully bad now and debates are only furthering his decline.

But then why is Hiden heading back to his basement? Trump has offered to change the dates of the debates, but Hiden has declined. If he were that bad then Hiden would want more debates.

Pundits always say that he is bad, as they don't understand his goals. Not saying his tactics worked, imo he could have done better, but there is a clear method behind his madness, once you see it, then it all makes more sense.

Not sure that every poll had him that far behind. But he is not trying to persuade everyone, just certain groups that are persuadable. I think a Telemundo poll had him a clear winner among latinos.

 

[longway]

Only listened to a little bit, but I don't really put much stock in the "shy trump voters" theory. There just isn't much evidence for it. Online polling should remove most social desirability effects yet they haven't been producing different results than phone polling. There were a lot of potential variables that can explain 2016 in relation to the polls, and I'd put that theory pretty far down the list.

Should point out though that while Trafalgar was pretty accurate on a couple states, they were pretty far off on states like Nevada. They missed pretty widely in some 2018 races too, despite again getting a couple right. The guy has a weird ego about him and likes to tout when they got things right, but Fivethirtyeight shows them having a worse overall track record at calling races than most major pollsters. I don't think the evidence is there to say they're inherently more accurate. But they're also generally showing Biden winning in this cycle, just by a lower margin than some other pollsters. I'd probably give Biden +1 or 2 points over anything Trafalgar shows.



Not anymore I believe since he had the breakdown&arrest. I think he said he's calling it quits and doesn't want the distractions a month out from the election.

yeah, its a lot to go through, and tbh I needed something like this, whereas you don't have the motivation. I think it's a fair to look at the total body of work, rather than the ones he highlighted. There is an article on RCP on him, where he does address at least some of his errors.

Re Parscale, yes, I remember now, he got arrested due to some domestic disturbance.

I found the podcast through this tweet by him, which is quite an interesting result. This question was part of his methodology in 2016 and was asked again by a different polling firm.



He found that there is a high correlation between how people say their neighbours are going to vote and how they actually vote, not sure how he knows that though.

 

[longway]

I’ll check out the podcast later but Scott Adams did one or two polls showing that they exist in a large number. He cited it’s likely due to the punishment a Trump supporter gets if he publicly announces support (financially and becoming a tribal outcast). I’d say this is accurate as people probably don’t trust pollsters.

This is the second reason I think polls are so far off behind the cherry-picking of voters being polled.

Pretty interesting predictions from a betting perspective near the end. He does say that pollsters do miss Republicans as many do not trust pollsters in far greater numbers than Democrats.

I can attest to the issues with social desirability. My cousins are very liberal and when I 'came out' as a Trump supporter, it was shocking to some of them, and I had to endure quite a bit of shit bc of it.

 

[rev0lver]

But then why is Hiden heading back to his basement? Trump has offered to change the dates of the debates, but Hiden has declined. If he were that bad then Hiden would want more debates.

Pundits always say that he is bad, as they don't understand his goals. Not saying his tactics worked, imo he could have done better, but there is a clear method behind his madness, once you see it, then it all makes more sense.

Not sure that every poll had him that far behind. But he is not trying to persuade everyone, just certain groups that are persuadable. I think a Telemundo poll had him a clear winner among latinos.

The Telemundo poll was a twitter poll lol. They don't mean jack shit because conservatives/liberals (whichever side wants to organize at the time) just brigade them.

I'd disagree with what's happening with the debate schedule. Biden was ready for the next debate, he's just following what the commission has planned for them. Trump declined it and Biden didn't want to move it, the onus isn't on Biden to work around the schedule that Trump wants. Considering the reaction to the first debate, I think it's a pretty bad strategy for Trump's team to decline this and leave voters with the taste that the last one left us.

I do understand some of the method, and you probably disagree with my reasoning here but I just see it as him being a bullshit artist. It's much easier to throw out plain-spoken and buzzwordy lines than it is to dissect them. Trump can say 5 false or made-up things in 60 seconds that require long refutations, and his opponent can only get through one of them with barely enough time to address the issue at hand. Keen viewers will see through it, but the average joe may not.

The problem for him this time is, the voters have now experienced 4 years of a Trump presidency. It's not as easy to buy into the bullshit anymore. 4 years ago he could say "Obama's been a disaster, you're gonna be doing so much better under a Trump presidency". Now he talks about how great he's been and how good the stock market's doing, while much of his voter base is struggling at the individual level. He talks about how great his covid response has been despite most of the country being 1-2 degrees separated from someone who died from it. And sure we could have an argument about those points but he's not very capable of having a detailed discussion about it, so his lines just don't work right now and I have no idea how he gains new voters or reclaims lost voters.

 

[longway]

The Telemundo poll was a twitter poll lol. They don't mean jack shit because conservatives/liberals (whichever side wants to organize at the time) just brigade them.

I'd disagree with what's happening with the debate schedule. Biden was ready for the next debate, he's just following what the commission has planned for them. Trump declined it and Biden didn't want to move it, the onus isn't on Biden to work around the schedule that Trump wants. Considering the reaction to the first debate, I think it's a pretty bad strategy for Trump's team to decline this and leave voters with the taste that the last one left us.

I do understand some of the method, and you probably disagree with my reasoning here but I just see it as him being a bullshit artist. It's much easier to throw out plain-spoken and buzzwordy lines than it is to dissect them. Trump can say 5 false or made-up things in 60 seconds that require long refutations, and his opponent can only get through one of them with barely enough time to address the issue at hand. Keen viewers will see through it, but the average joe may not.

The problem for him this time is, the voters have now experienced 4 years of a Trump presidency. It's not as easy to buy into the bullshit anymore. 4 years ago he could say "Obama's been a disaster, you're gonna be doing so much better under a Trump presidency". Now he talks about how great he's been and how good the stock market's doing, while much of his voter base is struggling at the individual level. He talks about how great his covid response has been despite most of the country being 1-2 degrees separated from someone who died from it. And sure we could have an argument about those points but he's not very capable of having a detailed discussion about it, so his lines just don't work right now and I have no idea how he gains new voters or reclaims lost voters.

I agree that COVID has hit his re-election chances hard. The drop among seniors is startling. There may or may not be shy trumpers, but its a big problem for him.

In terms of bs, I would rate him as one of the more truthful politicians, all his fuzzy grandiose riffing is rooted in some form of reality. He also doesn't put on an act, he wears his heart on his sleeve. Hiden lies constantly and pretends to be a nice guy, but his lies and evasions are not pursued at all. eg his assertion that Trump called nazis fine people or proud boys are white supremacists. (actually, once you look into them, you can see that wallace and biden colluded here)

It's not about the bsing, that's just the white noise, but the use of verbal and visual cues and techniques that appeal to the subconscious. We all make our decisions subconsciously, then rationalise them later. In the future, his rallies will be used as masterclasses in the art of persuasion. It's no coincidence that he had 2-3 rallies a day in states that he narrowly won in 2016.

 

[rev0lver]

I agree that COVID has hit his re-election chances hard. The drop among seniors is startling. There may or may not be shy trumpers, but its a big problem for him.

In terms of bs, I would rate him as one of the more truthful politicians, all his fuzzy grandiose riffing is rooted in some form of reality. He also doesn't put on an act, he wears his heart on his sleeve. Hiden lies constantly and pretends to be a nice guy, but his lies and evasions are not pursued at all. eg his assertion that Trump called nazis fine people or proud boys are white supremacists. (actually, once you look into them, you can see that wallace and biden colluded here)

It's not about the bsing, that's just the white noise, but the use of verbal and visual cues and techniques that appeal to the subconscious. We all make our decisions subconsciously, then rationalise them later. In the future, his rallies will be used as masterclasses in the art of persuasion. It's no coincidence that he had 2-3 rallies a day in states that he narrowly won in 2016.

Extremely strong disagreement on Trump being a truthful politician lol but I'm not gonna disagree that Biden lies too. But uninformed voters aren't truly gonna know who's lying or not. Biden's strength here is, unlike Hillary, he comes across as a lot more likable and relatable to the average person than Trump. Trump's lost his "outsider" role now that he's president, and Biden looks like a heartfelt, genuine dude standing next to him.

I personally think Trump just looks like a dumbass when he talks and even moreso when he starts moving his hands. Even a lot of Trump voters I know like his policies a lot more than they like him opening his mouth. I can't say I've ever been persuaded by anything he says, I actually question myself if he says something I agree with because I think he makes it sound stupid. He preaches to a choir more than he persuades anyone to his side. His strength is on energizing a base, not converting people. Like you brought up rallies which is exactly my point. Rallies are for people already support him, Trump's not winning over a crowd of undecideds there. I'd consider people like Sanders and Yang much more effective in persuasion. Biden not so much lol, but he at least has other strengths.

 

[longway]

Extremely strong disagreement on Trump being a truthful politician lol but I'm not gonna disagree that Biden lies too. But uninformed voters aren't truly gonna know who's lying or not. Biden's strength here is, unlike Hillary, he comes across as a lot more likable and relatable to the average person than Trump. Trump's lost his "outsider" role now that he's president, and Biden looks like a heartfelt, genuine dude standing next to him.

I personally think Trump just looks like a dumbass when he talks and even moreso when he starts moving his hands. Even a lot of Trump voters I know like his policies a lot more than they like him opening his mouth. I can't say I've ever been persuaded by anything he says, I actually question myself if he says something I agree with because I think he makes it sound stupid. He preaches to a choir more than he persuades anyone to his side. His strength is on energizing a base, not converting people. Like you brought up rallies which is exactly my point. Rallies are for people already support him, Trump's not winning over a crowd of undecideds there. I'd consider people like Sanders and Yang much more effective in persuasion. Biden not so much lol, but he at least has other strengths.

Part of it is energising his base. But people who come to his rallies are often those who have never voted before, or not from his base that those that are open to persuasion.

I cant link you, but the trump campaign captures the info and communicates with every person who attends his rallies, and gets new voters everytime. It's a highly sophisticated operation.

You are not open to persuasion bc you can't id. with trump on any level. I would have been the same, but prior to trump coming on the scene, I became completely disillusioned with all politics in UK and Obama.

This left me open to Trump's message. What you find stupid, I find endearing. I'm not off him bc he has largely done what he said he will do, and done it despite insane opposition.

Once he captured my attention, I watched a couple of his rallies online and bc a staunch supporter, then came across Scott Adams who explained trump's techniques, and I understood why I had been so persuaded. BTW, Obama uses similar techniques, but he lost me as it I could no longer id. with him.

This video is anti-trump, and I can see why, but what you can't see is that this is exactly why I like him. It's clear to me who the honest one is in this video.



BTW, I'm possibly not far from you politically, as back in 2016, sanders was my second favourite guy after trump. sanders is also excellent in his messaging. Got no real problem with Yang either.

In terms of persona, I think its a result of a series of trade-offs. In 2008, I was naive enough to think that Obama was an anti-establishment guy, despite getting rapturous support from the establishment. To fight the establishment, you cant have the Obama persona, its got to to be as dominating as his opposition, if not more so. It puts many off, but without it, he would have also been an also-ran.

While you rightly praise Bernie for his campaigning abilities and to a certain extent Yang, who won?

 

[bruthead]

Trump is definitely an incredibly dishonest politician, I don't think anyone could seriously argue he isn't. The fact that most politicians are dishonest from time to time doesn't justify his excesses.

As someone watching from overseas, America's best hope of real change is probably a moderate but imaginative Republican President who can work with the Dems in congress and the senate. The Republican party has in general been captured by awful people. I think some of the Dems would work with a reasonable Republican but not vice versa. I'm not sure Romney had any real vision but someone like him temperamentally.

Trump is more interested in being the most famous man in America than actually reforming things. And he hasn't hired the best people but the best people at sucking up to him. I struggle to see how anybody could have any hope in his leadership in a second Presidency. Not that I have any real hope in Biden either.

I think people are overestimating how much Trump can keep getting away with it all. People who get away with a lot get away with it until they don't. Plenty of people thought Trump was acting OTT to win the Presidency and would then be Presidential on getting the job. The debate with Biden showed how much he had gone astray from what people want to look up to in their national leader. It's just Trump being Trump - but people are tired of it.

 

[Roads55]

Trump out to 3.4 on betfair, 3.65 on smarkets, Biden 1.4 and 1.37 on them. good trade right there.

also got some 1.47 at some books for biden, nice arbs about today! god election day is going to be crazy the about of casual money floating about, sleepy joe making me some good cash this year lol