Political Betting Thread

[Ruv]

Hope the line for Trump goes to +200. It's only at +170 currently.

Looking forward to seeing Biden/Harris get crushed in November.

 

[Roads55]

Hope the line for Trump goes to +200. It's only at +170 currently.

Looking forward to seeing Biden/Harris get crushed in November.

the real line is around 3.35 for trump currently as offered on exchanges and predictit. bookmakers are offering stupidly juiced odds on trump, they are making a killing from trump bets.

 

[longway]

I guess i must be in denial, but i just cant believe trump will lose.

On smarkets you can get trump winning by upto 80 seats for 5.8. I already put a unit on that. Then there are bands for margin of victory in ev at big odds for trump. Can easily game out a few paths for both trumpand biden and see if the odds on those have any value. I will be doing that for sure.

Dont want to bet too much, as there is a high chance of the results to be contested all the way to scotus, and who knows what that will throw up.

 

[rev0lver]

Dont want to bet too much, as there is a high chance of the results to be contested all the way to scotus, and who knows what that will throw up.

This is my concern and the only reason I'm not betting the house on Biden. November's gonna be a complete shitshow. I have no doubt that Trump will make an attempt at contesting the results if he's losing. It's just hard to say how realistic that attempt would be, we've never seen anything more than standard recounts.

If we're looking at it as a standard election, I think Biden -200 is still absurd value. Trump's likely fighting from behind in the real tossup states (PA, FL) and is probably behind in states like AZ and NC. Biden is maintaining a sizable lead in MI, WI, and MN. He just needs to win ONE of AZ, PA, FL, or NC and he wins the election. For that, keep in mind Biden's advantage in PA as a Scranton native, a blue-collar district that would otherwise probably lean red.

 

[loller90278]

hot take: biden will win in a landslide and results wont need to be ushered up to the courts

 

[longway]

hot take: biden will win in a landslide and results wont need to be ushered up to the courts

That's what it is looking like, but how much you going to bet on it?

 

[loller90278]

That's what it is looking like, but how much you going to bet on it?

hehe zero! I'm just basing that on history on similar situations that we're in now but sometimes history doesn't repeat itself. Don't have too much confidence in that take.

I think the "shy trump voters" from 2016 will actually be "shy trump voters who refrained from voting" this time around

 

[longway]

hehe zero! I'm just basing that on history on similar situations that we're in now but sometimes history doesn't repeat itself. Don't have too much confidence in that take.

I think the "shy trump voters" from 2016 will actually be "shy trump voters who refrained from voting" this time around

Thats the thing. All the polls indicate a blowout, but who has the guts to back a stone cold loser like hiden with a lot of money?

Im finding these margins hard to believe. There are 10 point margins in polls from florida, thats just crazy, and supposedly texas is in play. But now that hiden has emerged from his basement, it turns out no one wants to see him anyway, it doesnt make sense.

Also trump job qpproval is around 45%. Recent gallup poll is 56% think they are better off than 4 years ago. The highest ever.

Other ndicators are not matching the polls. I think its going to be a squeaker at least.

Im listening to these guys right now, who are drilling into the polls. Its super long but some might find it interesting.

 

[longway]

Maybe the polls will be right in the end, but given that Hiden is supposed to be ahead by a huge margin, nationally at least, does this make sense?





You would think ether would be some enthusiasm about the hero poised to sweep the hated drumpf out of office. But no, its more like a grim death march, with no enthusiasm for him, he is just an empty vessel to carry their hatred of trump. It's pretty sad.

At least trump voters are voting out of love, hiden voters are voting out of hate.

 

[rev0lver]

Maybe the polls will be right in the end, but given that Hiden is supposed to be ahead by a huge margin, nationally at least, does this make sense?





You would think ether would be some enthusiasm about the hero poised to sweep the hated drumpf out of office. But no, its more like a grim death march, with no enthusiasm for him, he is just an empty vessel to carry their hatred of trump. It's pretty sad.

At least trump voters are voting out of love, hiden voters are voting out of hate.

That first video is literally an edit lol. Surprised you didn't notice that. But Biden's purposefully holding small, sometimes invite-only rallies due to covid. Trump's been facing backlash for putting large crowds together and I don't really see it positively impacting his votes in the end.

I wouldn't argue that Biden has tons of enthusiasm in favor for him, but he's at least more well-liked than Hillary and the enthusiasm against Trump hasn't died down.

 

[longway]

That first video is literally an edit lol. Surprised you didn't notice that. But Biden's purposefully holding small, sometimes invite-only rallies due to covid. Trump's been facing backlash for putting large crowds together and I don't really see it positively impacting his votes in the end.

I wouldn't argue that Biden has tons of enthusiasm in favor for him, but he's at least more well-liked than Hillary and the enthusiasm against Trump hasn't died down.

i thought the sound effects were added in, but the rest looked ok to me.

How can he be well-liked if no-one wants to see him? Small events are one thing, but the lack of interest in him is puzzling, he hardly does any campaigning, so seeing him should be a rare opportunity. He is poised to be POTUS, yet there are hardly any gawkers turning up to see the guy in the flesh. edited or not, the story that the small crowds are purposeful doesn't hold up, they would still be needing to turn people away.

Where is the energy or the buzz? his events look more like wakes than campaign events.

Now this guy is running for president.



I have no idea what hiden is supposed to be doing, and tbf neither does he.

I think you are agreeing with me in a roundabout way. you say enthusiasm against trump, it means hatred for trump. Hatred alone doesn't usually win elections, there has to be something worth voting for.

A couple of interesting points are that independents and republicans distrust universal mail-in voting far more than democrats, you can expect that to help boost turnout for trump on election day. Also, mail-in votes are usually rejected in greater numbers than normal ballots, so that could backfire on hiden.

Of course, if hiden is winning by the margins polls indicate, none of this will be an issue.

 

[bruthead]

Dude, you are seriously talking about crowd size during a pandemic?

Even in normal times drawing a huge crowd doesn't make you a winner, it just means you have a passionate base. Trump has been doing too much campaigning to fire up his base and not enough to win over swing voters, especially pertaining to the virus. Having a big crowd during a pandemic after lots of your team were recently infected is to all but your most devoted fans...not a good look.

 

[rev0lver]

How can he be well-liked if no-one wants to see him? Small events are one thing, but the lack of interest in him is puzzling, he hardly does any campaigning, so seeing him should be a rare opportunity. He is poised to be POTUS, yet there are hardly any gawkers turning up to see the guy in the flesh. edited or not, the story that the small crowds are purposeful doesn't hold up, they would still be needing to turn people away.

From my understanding they're either invite-only or registration-only, you can't just show up to them. I think it's pretty clear why they're holding small events. Have heard mostly praise for that, only heard backlash from the Trump side.

I think you are agreeing with me in a roundabout way. you say enthusiasm against trump, it means hatred for trump. Hatred alone doesn't usually win elections, there has to be something worth voting for.

I'd kinda disagree. FWIW one of the top justifications I heard from Trump voters in 2016 was their hatred of Hillary Clinton, and were otherwise indifferent to Trump's policy positions. You can say the pro-Hillary vote was also more of an anti-Trump vote, but they both had a huge group of haters. In this case, Trump seems to be the more heavily disliked candidate by far.

And hatred can absolutely win elections when there's that kind of disparity. Scandals take down politicians all the time, even against mediocre opponents. Trump's opponents see his presidency as just a giant sequence of scandals and distrust.

 

[longway]

Even in normal times drawing a huge crowd doesn't make you a winner, it just means you have a passionate base.

From my understanding they're either invite-only or registration-only, you can't just show up to them. I think it's pretty clear why they're holding small events.

I am not saying that he isn't holding small events. I am saying that even if they were holding small events, there would be people just turning up and hanging out and cheering, outside those already there. There is very little of that. There is nothing other than polls to indicate that he is ahead by a huge margin. It doesn't make sense. Having a passionate base is a good sign, not the only sign of course, but you can't ignore it. In 2016, it turned out that crowd size was a better indicator than the polling.

And hatred can absolutely win elections when there's that kind of disparity.

Yes, in 2016, there were people who hated Killary, which was why they voted for Trump, but it was not hatred alone that won him the election, it was the promise of making things better. Hiden can't make that promise on any serious level, he hasn't made anything better beyond his bank balance in the last 47 years. There has to be something positive. The Trump scandals are largely just made-up fairy stories. What's killing him is COVID.

As you said, or another poster, the Hiden line has incredible value, if you base it on polls alone. But other indicators are contradicting the polls, then that could be why there is so much value on the Hiden line. Polling is not the only indicator, and if the polling is off, then its the worst indicator of all.

I could be wrong, of course, and I will have to eat humble pie and take some losses if I am, but I think this race is going to go down to the wire, at the very least they are under polling trump support. Actually, they could be overestimating Hiden support. At over 50% nationally and in some battlegrounds, his campaign should be buzzing, but there is just nothing there.

 

[Ryan Kelly]

I guess i must be in denial, but i just cant believe trump will lose.

Consider your guess confirmed. I have a tinge of skepticism only bc of how wrong everyone was in ‘16, but if you just can’t believe he can lose, you’re not just in denial, you’re officially delusional. Nate has his chances < 15% right now.

 

[Joedaman55]

Didn't virtually every debate poll have Biden winning the debate by 20-30 points? Even a lot of right-wing pundits were basically like "Trump was embarrassingly bad". There were right-leaning focus groups calling him a crackhead. I haven't seen any swaying aside from conservatives questioning their vote.

While I think Trump is a piss poor debater, I think he uses some good tactics, but a lot of them are starting to fall flat, especially when he now has to defend his presidential record instead of bullshitting his way through. He's doing awfully bad now and debates are only furthering his decline.

Lol those same pundits said the same stuff while he continued to steamroll through his competition, that has not changed. Most hardcore Republicans originally thought he was sent to destroy the party. Those “experts” are awful predictors and way out of touch with most Americans.

 

[longway]

Consider your guess confirmed. I have a tinge of skepticism only bc of how wrong everyone was in ‘16, but if you just can’t believe he can lose, you’re not just in denial, you’re officially delusional. Nate has his chances < 15% right now.

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Yeah, you got good odds. Well, of course he can lose. But I don't believe he will lose, that's not the same thing.

His estimate is based on polling, what if the polling is off? The value on the Hiden line is still wildly good. The question is why? Either Trump is being hyped bc of his 2016 win, or the betting market is not just looking at the polls, which is what I think. Silver is postulating unpresidented changes in voting patterns, but there is no sign of this anywhere except in the polls.

Good luck with your wagers. We are on different sides, but I hope whoever has the best read wins.

 

[rev0lver]

I am not saying that he isn't holding small events. I am saying that even if they were holding small events, there would be people just turning up and hanging out and cheering, outside those already there. There is very little of that. There is nothing other than polls to indicate that he is ahead by a huge margin. It doesn't make sense. Having a passionate base is a good sign, not the only sign of course, but you can't ignore it. In 2016, it turned out that crowd size was a better indicator than the polling.

I don't think it was an indicator of much beyond his base's passion. Bernie Sanders drew Trump-style crowds and could easily outdraw Hillary and Biden at his rallies. He lost both races. Crowd sizes are just a consequence of populism. I wouldn't turn an instance of correlation into a rule.

I could be wrong, of course, and I will have to eat humble pie and take some losses if I am, but I think this race is going to go down to the wire, at the very least they are under polling trump support. Actually, they could be overestimating Hiden support. At over 50% nationally and in some battlegrounds, his campaign should be buzzing, but there is just nothing there.

I don't want to discount the possibility that Trump could perform slightly better than polling indicates. Actual results usually fall within the margin of error rather than the exact polling averages. But the margin just feels even wider this time around. Biden is averaging a lead in Georgia right now, a state that Hillary never led in a single poll. Trump's support base is buzzing, but if the minority is shouting really loud it doesn't turn them into the majority.

 

[rev0lver]

Lol those same pundits said the same stuff while he continued to steamroll through his competition, that has not changed. Most hardcore Republicans originally thought he was sent to destroy the party. Those “experts” are awful predictors and way out of touch with most Americans.

I was talking about both pundits and regular viewers, though. Reactions seemed to be similar from both. I do know there's still a feeling that if Trump loses this election, it'll be a heavy blow to the current state of the republican party. Dems picked up a lot of seats in the midterms and could be looking at huge wins next month beyond just the presidency. If Trump's no longer at the helm of the party, the right wing populist messaging is gonna be crushed and I'm not sure what they do from there.

 

[rev0lver]

Yeah, you got good odds. Well, of course he can lose. But I don't believe he will lose, that's not the same thing.

His estimate is based on polling, what if the polling is off? The value on the Hiden line is still wildly good. The question is why? Either Trump is being hyped bc of his 2016 win, or the betting market is not just looking at the polls, which is what I think. Silver is postulating unpresidented changes in voting patterns, but there is no sign of this anywhere except in the polls.

Good luck with your wagers. We are on different sides, but I hope whoever has the best read wins.

If it means anything, Nate Silver's model in 2016 gave Trump a near 30% chance at winning. He's much more careful than most mainstream outlets, and recognized that Trump only needed to hit the top of his polling margins in a couple states. He gives Trump less than half that chance here, currently sitting at 13%