Spivak's a live dog, but just because Jones mauled Gane doesn't mean every grappler he faces will be able to do the same.
Speaking as a massive Gane homer, I think this would ring more true than it does if we hadn't seen Francis -- a knockout artist with a bum knee and at times questionable cardio -- toss him around like he was some JV wrestler late in a five-round fight. Gane showed poor TDD, a bad get-up game, and even worse fight IQ/composure in grappling exchanges in that spot. We can make all the excuses we want -- "Ngannou so stronk, Gane/Lopez were expecting a striking war" etc. -- but at the end of the day they're just that: excuses. Ciryl and his coaches talked mad shit about how he had spent all of the last year polishing his grappling nonstop with BJJ world champions and elite Chechen & Dagestani heavyweight wrestlers and that
it wouldn't happen again because damn it he's ready this time. Then Jones proceeded to have potentially the easiest win of his career against him by using the same approach, but finishing the job.
I know a lot of people are prepared to throw that result out the window and say he just got run over by the GOAT, but I am not. There were a
lot of red flags surrounding Jon going into that match-up: the lay-off, the personal issues, him being untested against Heavyweights, how his new body composition would hold up, his lackluster last few performances (especially in the grappling department). Even if we run with the common narrative that Jon simply didn't "try" against Santos/Reyes and that he's now fresh again, Ciryl still showed zero improvements in those spots. I can't excuse or dismiss that, no matter who has ahold of him. I think we're more into the realm of it being a pattern -- especially if he doesn't look
significantly better against Spivak. It doesn't help that Gane avoided anything remotely resembling a wrestler test on the way to the title. For the longest time his best anti-grappling performance was against Raphael Pessoa of all people.
Don't get me wrong, I think Gane has a pretty good chance of winning this fight. I could see his footwork and long-range attacks giving Spivak fits as he tries to close distance. Plus Sergey comes from a Judo/Sambo pedigree and relies heavily on upper-body throws, sweeps, and trips -- things I suspect Gane is marginally better equipped to deal with thanks to his comfort in the clinch than conventional freestyle wrestling lower body takedowns. And, well, Sergey's chin and striking defense are questionable.
That being said -- despite his level of competition making me wonder if he's just on a charmed run right now -- Sergey looks marginally improved from one performance to the next. He has developed a very serviceable jab seemingly overnight and was hanging in the pocket trading with Sakai with far more confidence & prowess than he has ever shown in other striking exchanges throughout his career.
And he knows how to use said jab to set up his grappling: he pumped a jab into Lewis's face because he knew that Derrick is lazy with his lead hand and would instinctively respond with a massive overhand right as a counter. Lewis did just that, whiffed badly, and left himself off-balance & wide open for Sergey's clinch entry at which point the fight was a wrap. Spivak looks very physically strong and way more confident lately. With the Moldovan's ability to score mat returns and control guys before seeking finishes, I just can't favor Gane when I've seen him get exposed multiple times by every guy who decided "Let me grapple this dude" (except, well, Pessoa and go take a look at how his career turned out).
While I 100% hope to be proven wrong, I'm picking Sergei as an underdog and I sort of expect him to finish Gane at some point. Ciryl needs to show me what improvements he has made to his defensive grappling; I can't pick him on blind faith alone believing that he's truly put in the work this time.
I think people can't look past how Aspinall effortlessly ran through Spivak without getting hit once.
He's been on a good run since, but not against anybody elite or on the level of Aspinall, Gane will be his biggest test since that fight. Gane's ground game isn't good but it isn't as laughable as Sherdog makes out either, and on the feet he is lightyears above Spivak.
Spivak can win this if Gane's tdd isn't there but if it stays standing for enough time Gane is going to murk him.
Yeah, Spivak's best wins are pre-layoff Tuivasa, Oleinik, Sakai, and Lewis. Two of those guys are no longer with the promotion. It's part of what scares me about trusting him; I think it's possible that maybe I'm overselling him because maybe he's just on a charmed run where the guys he's matched up against are able to make him look better than he really is.
To his credit, though, he was filling in on very short notice against Aspinall. Tom was acknowledged as an elite prospect and is arguably a stylistic nightmare for him under ideal circumstances, so to have him fighting him with little to no camp... that's hard to hold against him.
I just don't have any faith in Gane's defensive grappling against a remotely decent grappler coming in with the gameplan of grounding him and controlling him. Fool me once and all that. I hope he proves me wrong, though.
