The 35+ Curse Year Old Curse at LW and Below?

[mkt]

Poirier was 35 when he smashed BSD

And I addressed exceptions and one-off fights. BSD wasn't the champ, though. We've never seen a dominant champ at that age in the lower weight classes.

 

[Vampire life]

O

• 35-year old Volk loses his title
• 36-year old Tony Ferguson started an 8-fight losing streak in one-sided beatdown against Gaethje
• 35-year old Gaethje just lost to Max who's 3 years younger
• Michael Chandler's only win after turning 35 was against an even older and more shopworn Tony Ferguson
• Cejudo is 0-2 since turning 35

Happens at welterweight too
Usman
Colby
Masvadal
And many others

 

[JoeRowe]

And I addressed exceptions and one-off fights. BSD wasn't the champ, though. We've never seen a dominant champ at that age in the lower weight classes.

Was Merab Champ when he beat Henry? You used that as an example, why can't I use non-titles as examples too? Max/Gaethje wasn't for a real belt either if we're being honest.

Seems like selective reasoning but to each their own.

 

[mkt]

O


Happens at welterweight too
Usman
Colby
Masvadal
And many others

Yep. Koscheck comes to mind. He was around 34-35 in his last good performance, a narrow SD loss to prime Johnny Hendricks. He completely fell off the wagon after that. Lawler and Woodley were around that age when they lost their belts, too.

 

[filthybliss]

• 35-year old Volk loses his title
• 36-year old Tony Ferguson started an 8-fight losing streak in one-sided beatdown against Gaethje
• 35-year old Gaethje just lost to Max who's 3 years younger
• Michael Chandler's only win after turning 35 was against an even older and more shopworn Tony Ferguson
• Cejudo is 0-2 since turning 35

what about might mouse?

 

[pick999]

Henry beat sterling

 

[mkt]

Was Merab Champ when he beat Henry? You used that as an example, why can't I use non-titles as examples too? Max/Gaethje wasn't for a real belt either if we're being honest.

Seems like selective reasoning but to each their own.

All of my examples are fighters who were at least 35 and had sudden declines. Merab is 33 and beat a 37-year old, which actually helps prove my point. Merab doesn't have the mileage/damage of someone like Gaethje, so his prime could last a little longer. But I still think his days are numbered, especially with that cardio-intensive style. He could win the belt, but I don't think he'll hold it long.

 

[mkt]

what about might mouse?

Yeah, he lost his UFC belt around age 31 and left. He had good longevity and did well in Rizin. However, we have no proof that he would've regained his UFC belt if he didn't leave.

 

[BowserJr]

• 35-year old Volk loses his title
• 36-year old Tony Ferguson started an 8-fight losing streak in one-sided beatdown against Gaethje
• 35-year old Gaethje just lost to Max who's 3 years younger
• Michael Chandler's only win after turning 35 was against an even older and more shopworn Tony Ferguson
• Cejudo is 0-2 since turning 35

Add BJ Penn to that list

 

[mkt]

Add BJ Penn to that list

BJ, Bendo, Pettis, Gilbert Melendez and Aldo aged out even earlier, around 31-32. They may have had some good fights after that, but never were able to win another belt. Pettis was even younger--like 26 or something.

 

[acannxr]

Right. And while the current top HWs are a bit younger, there have been champs over 40 (Randy Couture, Cormier). And Glover was over 40 when he was the LHW champ. While there are a lot of good LWs and below in 30-34 age range, their career declines are usually much more rapid when they reach their mid-30s.

Keep in mind that the MMA On Point video was an average based on all weight classes; the smaller divisions are always going to be younger than the heavier divisions due to the former's dependency on speed and athleticism (which are the first things to decline with age), whereas the heavier divisions rely more on power (which is the last thing to decline with age).

I did some brief data on this topic several years ago, here are the 2013 and 2018 ages to compare with today:



Today:

32.9 | Heavyweight
35.6 | Light Heavyweight
32.9 | Middleweight
32.2 | Welterweight
32.2 | Lightweight
31.9 | Featherweight
31.4 | Bantamweight
31.0 | Flyweight

It's also possible that some divisions might not be getting new recruits at the same rate as they were 6-11 years ago which could explain why Flyweight and Bantamweight have gotten so much older.

This 2011 article also suggested that fighters will tend to fall off after about 9 years of fighting high level competition regardless of age:

The 9-Year Rule: A look at career lengths in Mixed Martial Arts | FightOpinion.com – Your Global Connection to the Fight Industry.

www.fightopinion.com

 

[BowserJr]

BJ, Bendo, Pettis, Gilbert Melendez and Aldo aged out even earlier, around 31-32. They may have had some good fights after that, but never were able to win another belt. Pettis was even younger--like 26 or something.

BJ was 35 when he fought Grankie the 1st time

 

[BowserJr]

Keep in mind that the MMA On Point video was an average based on all weight classes; the smaller divisions are always going to be younger than the heavier divisions due to the former's dependency on speed and athleticism (which are the first things to decline with age), whereas the heavier divisions rely more on power (which is the last thing to decline with age).

I did some brief data on this topic several years ago, here are the 2013 and 2018 ages to compare with today:

View attachment 1039924

Today:

32.9 | Heavyweight
35.6 | Light Heavyweight
32.9 | Middleweight
32.2 | Welterweight
32.2 | Lightweight
31.9 | Featherweight
31.4 | Bantamweight
31.0 | Flyweight

It's also possible that some divisions might not be getting new recruits at the same rate as they were 6-11 years ago which could explain why Flyweight and Bantamweight have gotten so much older.

This 2011 article also suggested that fighters will tend to fall off after about 9 years of fighting high level competition regardless of age:

The 9-Year Rule: A look at career lengths in Mixed Martial Arts | FightOpinion.com – Your Global Connection to the Fight Industry.

www.fightopinion.com

Very interesting
Though HW seems to be an anomaly

MW and LHW had a fair share of older fighters who did well 15 and 20yrs into their career though

 

[TheGreatA]

Bring back TRT and these guys would be hanging around a lot longer.

 

[Zebra Cheeks]

• 35-year old Volk loses his title
• 36-year old Tony Ferguson started an 8-fight losing streak in one-sided beatdown against Gaethje
• 35-year old Gaethje just lost to Max who's 3 years younger
• Michael Chandler's only win after turning 35 was against an even older and more shopworn Tony Ferguson
• Cejudo is 0-2 since turning 35

I have this whole big theory about how it’ll be tough to beat title defenses of old because the path to the title was a lot faster. Now these guys are going on 8-12 fight win streaks just to get there, all within the ufc.

We used to get guys fighting for titles at 6-0, 7-0 etc.

The mileage that gets put on these guys before they get there is intense. Yes the damage, but the training and weight cutting too:l. You can only do it so many times

 

[HuskySamoan]

Average age of the top ten fighters (worldwide):

32.9 | Heavyweight
35.6 | Light Heavyweight
32.9 | Middleweight
32.2 | Welterweight
32.2 | Lightweight
31.9 | Featherweight
31.4 | Bantamweight
31.0 | Flyweight

MMA On Point also did a video trying to determine at what age fighters start declining at the championship and non-championship level and it was 33-34 years old.

(Timestamped)

Guys 35+ are 2-23 in title fights under 185.

Yeah and below 170 they've never won a title. Someone did the Stats on age 34 at 170 and below in title fights and while it was noticeably better, it was still pretty damn bad. Haven't been able to find it again and it's too much work to extrapolate that stuff personally.

As for people thinking they're making an argument here by listing exceptions, no ones arguing there aren't exceptions. A guy above 35 will definitely win a lower weight title again, it's just a matter of time. My question is more if the win rate maintains to be below 10% which is staggeringly low.

And @acannxr id dare say these statistics are bad too, I did the average ages of fighters when they won the title per division and its considerably lower than these top 10 averages. Furthermore, the way the UFC does rankings where guys like Ortega or Colby can just sit in the top 5 for years without fighting is ridiculous. Or how guys like Ferguson can keep a rank after being 0-3 etc. Or how the fuck Cruz was ranked, I can go on. If this was some Olympic style tournament where you had to qualify, be active and the best fought the best through competitive filtration, you'd see the average in age be younger than this. What makes them older is the inorganic way the UFC does their rankings and matchmaking. Also generationally its becoming super common for fighters to begin amateurs at 14-16 and pro at 17-18 now, primes will be starting, if not already in that 24-26 range and ending at around 32.

 

[HuskySamoan]

I have this whole big theory about how it’ll be tough to beat title defenses of old because the path to the title was a lot faster. Now these guys are going on 8-12 fight win streaks just to get there, all within the ufc.

We used to get guys fighting for titles at 6-0, 7-0 etc.

The mileage that gets put on these guys before they get there is intense. Yes the damage, but the training and weight cutting too:l. You can only do it so many times

To be fair, Pereira got a title shot after 3 fights. It only took Omalley 4-0-1ing to get a title shot. Erceg is what, 2-0? Boom title shot. Umar will get a title shot if he beats Sandhagen, that's just 6-0. Dricus went 5-0 to get a title shot.

I'm not sure if you meant win streaks or literal 5-0 records but the Usman/Islam 9-10 fight win streaks aren't for everyone. If the UFC likes you, you can move quickly still. As for long reigns, ya I'm skeptical too, fighters just don't seem able to stay healthy and active, but on the flip side we should see fighters reaching contention at younger and younger ages. But these guys all want super fights and jumping divisions, it's business savvy. Ilia and Omalley are in positions for good title reigns, I think there's a huge IF Omalley can make it past Merab/Umar and Topuria in Evloev and Max. But if they do, I think they'll likely string along a great run if they choose to stay in their divisions. Islam isn't sticking around long, he will beat Poirier and Arman and then try hard for Leon and likely retire.

 

[ferrisjso]

Age certainly hits smaller fighters earlier and harder than bigger ones. I think at this stage we can all agree on that.

 

[mkt]

Very interesting
Though HW seems to be an anomaly

MW and LHW had a fair share of older fighters who did well 15 and 20yrs into their career though

I think HW is just a temporary anomaly. Go back a 5-10 years and Stipe, Cormier, Overeem, Hunt, etc.were Top 10. We got to a point where they retired and guys like 45-year old Arlovksi aren't Top 10 any more. Also, 37-year old Ngannou is no longer in the UFC. I'd guess that HW has had more 35+ year old champs than any other division (Werdum, Stipe, Cormier, Couture who was 43-44 when he beat Sylvia and Gonzaga)

 

[blaseblase]

The heavier divisions are weaker so athletic dropoff due to aging isn't as noticeable. As DC put it, they suck at fighting.