UFC 212 - Aldo vs Holloway - Rio de Janeiro

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EzFlyer said:
I think O4.5 -150 is clearly a better play than aldo -135, -140, etc.

i haven't bet anything yet

edited: 4.5, not 2.5 rounds
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Haven't seen the odds, but if its similar price, I disagree. I feel this could turn into a firefight, and both guys have finishes under their belt. I also don't think its unreasonable to imagine a scenario where Aldo takes the first 3 rounds, begins to tire and Max pushes for a finish. FWIW, I never bet O3.5 and up unless its evens or higher, I just don't like doing it. I would rather take Aldo straight up, but that's just me.
 
lawmills2006 said:
Haven't seen the odds, but if its similar price, I disagree. I feel this could turn into a firefight, and both guys have finishes under their belt. I also don't think its unreasonable to imagine a scenario where Aldo takes the first 3 rounds, begins to tire and Max pushes for a finish. FWIW, I never bet O3.5 and up unless its evens or higher, I just don't like doing it. I would rather take Aldo straight up, but that's just me.
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outside of an injury to KZ in rd 4, aldo hasn't finished anyone since 2012.

and holloway has an incredible chin. never ko'd.
 
EzFlyer said:
outside of an injury to KZ in rd 4, aldo hasn't finished anyone since 2012.

and holloway has an incredible chin. never ko'd.
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But Max has, and Aldo has also been dropped, as well as finished. I just don't like the odds, if it was +120 or +130, yeah. But its not my cup of tea. Good luck to you anyway, but I would never take an O 4.5 at odds like that, personal preference.
 
lawmills2006 said:
But Max has, and Aldo has also been dropped, as well as finished. I just don't like the odds, if it was +120 or +130, yeah. But its not my cup of tea. Good luck to you anyway, but I would never take an O 4.5 at odds like that, personal preference.
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I think what EZ is trying to say is that since you're planning on betting Aldo the over may be the smarter play, because based on what you're saying it seems like we all agree that Aldo finishing Holloway is pretty unlikely. By betting the over, you're basically betting on Aldo's most likely method of victory (decision), plus Holloway by decision and the small chance of a finish in the final 2:30 of the fight. All for a better price than Aldo's moneyline. Now, if you think there's a good chance that Aldo finishes Max, then I would agree that his ML would be the better play. Personally, I have a hard time seeing that happening.

EDIT: I see that Aldo is -135 and the over is -150 now. When I bet the over it was -135 and cheaper than his ML.
 
bingo. i'm comparing O4.5 to aldo ML.

holloway dec > aldo ko in terms of likelihood. i don't know who the heck is gonna argue that. so when they're similarly price, o4.5 is > aldo ml. it's that simple
 
taking some holloway dec +300.

i think this fight goes 5 rounds 70-75% of the time and i think it's about a coinflip fight.
 
iGnP said:
At what odds would you consider a bet on Max
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if the fight happened right now, i'd bet max small at this +115

i'm like 51-49 aldo in my head at present

i'm hoping my decision becomes easy as the line shifts
 
Max vs Aldo is so hard to predict. I took Max NSC when it was +118, will def hit the over in some capacity as long it stays below -185 and livebet that one all day. So excited for it. Shame the rest of this card is pretty garbage for a PPV
 
t6p said:
I think what EZ is trying to say is that since you're planning on betting Aldo the over may be the smarter play, because based on what you're saying it seems like we all agree that Aldo finishing Holloway is pretty unlikely. By betting the over, you're basically betting on Aldo's most likely method of victory (decision), plus Holloway by decision and the small chance of a finish in the final 2:30 of the fight. All for a better price than Aldo's moneyline. Now, if you think there's a good chance that Aldo finishes Max, then I would agree that his ML would be the better play. Personally, I have a hard time seeing that happening.

EDIT: I see that Aldo is -135 and the over is -150 now. When I bet the over it was -135 and cheaper than his ML.
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I would prefer to take Aldo, seeing as I find him a horrible match up for Holloway. I feel he could finish on the ground, finish standing up, out point him.

And again, I would never take O 4.5 at less than +100 odds. Two agressive strikers, with no fear of takedowns (remember Aldo has game planned for wrestlers since 2012), over 5 rounds.
 
lawmills2006 said:
I would prefer to take Aldo, seeing as I find him a horrible match up for Holloway. I feel he could finish on the ground, finish standing up, out point him.

And again, I would never take O 4.5 at less than +100 odds. Two agressive strikers, with no fear of takedowns (remember Aldo has game planned for wrestlers since 2012), over 5 rounds.
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Gotcha, fair enough.
 
EzFlyer said:
if the fight happened right now, i'd bet max small at this +115

i'm like 51-49 aldo in my head at present

i'm hoping my decision becomes easy as the line shifts
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What's making you think this is a close fight if you dont mind me asking. I still think Aldo is the gold standard and Holloway isn't there just yet
 
iGnP said:
What's making you think this is a close fight if you dont mind me asking. I still think Aldo is the gold standard and Holloway isn't there just yet
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i'm a believer in holloway's progression.. i don't think it's like yair - frankie, where it's "too much" -- i think holloway is already at this level. he's got length on aldo, he's possibly got better cardio (tho i think aldo's perceived cardio issues are overblown, he won rd 5 vs frankie when he needed to, for example)

i think holloway's gonna throw w/more volume than aldo.. but aldo's gonna be chopping his legs, too.. aldo has more power, but holloway's possibly got a better chin

i just think it's darn close
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm a believer in holloway's progression.. i don't think it's like yair - frankie, where it's "too much" -- i think holloway is already at this level. he's got length on aldo, he's possibly got better cardio (tho i think aldo's perceived cardio issues are overblown, he won rd 5 vs frankie when he needed to, for example)

i think holloway's gonna throw w/more volume than aldo.. but aldo's gonna be chopping his legs, too.. aldo has more power, but holloway's possibly got a better chin

i just think it's darn close
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Thanks
 
EzFlyer said:
i'm a believer in holloway's progression.. i don't think it's like yair - frankie, where it's "too much" -- i think holloway is already at this level. he's got length on aldo, he's possibly got better cardio (tho i think aldo's perceived cardio issues are overblown, he won rd 5 vs frankie when he needed to, for example)

i think holloway's gonna throw w/more volume than aldo.. but aldo's gonna be chopping his legs, too.. aldo has more power, but holloway's possibly got a better chin

i just think it's darn close
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I think you've nailed the approach. I really like Max and I think he's completing his game; much more so that Yair.

I think Max is really really tough and will be a tough opponent for Jose. I also think Max packs some punch. If Max gets in the +150 range I will likely jump all over it.
 
I'll probably hit max and the over and hope I win both

I'm with EZ. I hope max gets up to +125 or more. Maybe Luca will bet Aldo
 
EzFlyer said:
+368 at present

i agree there's almost no point in betting KK ml if there's any differential between her decision and ml payouts
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yeah that lines is awful, it'll be better than that when lines are released more widely though, I'd take it if it hits +475/+500 though.

EzFlyer said:
i'm a believer in holloway's progression.. i don't think it's like yair - frankie, where it's "too much" -- i think holloway is already at this level. he's got length on aldo, he's possibly got better cardio (tho i think aldo's perceived cardio issues are overblown, he won rd 5 vs frankie when he needed to, for example)

i think holloway's gonna throw w/more volume than aldo.. but aldo's gonna be chopping his legs, too.. aldo has more power, but holloway's possibly got a better chin

i just think it's darn close
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agree with all of this bar the last sentance, I think holloway takes it in a competitive but clear decision. think it'll pretty much be a kickboxing fight too. I feel holloway's confidence is on another level to aldo.

although I just looked at aldo's wiki page and he's only 30...wtf I had no idea he was still that young, would of said 33 or so. seems to of been around forever.
 
I will not bet against aldo here. If he stays around -140 ill juice if he goes down to -200 i will just not bet on this fight
 
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