UFC 245 Usman vs Covington

[Sono07]

Absolute shite level analysis, not surprising from a worthless poster like yourself. Jessica won three fights in a row as an underdog since she dropped to flyweight before running into Valentina of course who no one expected her to beat. If Jessica is shite then so is the entire UFC women's flyweight dvivision except for Valentina. This is a gambling forum, we are here to separate the shite from the Shinola and decide if necessary who is less shite to make money.

Gotta be honest for me this sums up 80-90% of Apples "quality posts"

Guess he is feeling frisky since his yellow card wore off.

 

[ill800]

I have three guys on ignore

apples made the cut

 

[Sono07]

I have three guys on ignore

apples made the cut

Getting there myself usually the trolls are good for a laugh but all he seems to do is shit on other sherbros

 

[ApplesVild]

I post analysis for a fight or two every event, if you guys don't like it or don't agree that's fine, but this is a betting forum and I've had one losing event in the past 4/5 months and have consistently made money. My unit size has increased from £25 to £100 and I continue to have success.

So what if I said Jessica Eye was shite? She is.

Just because Jim Gunn makes these threads doesn't mean he has a fucking clue. The guy makes about 40 bets a card and loses alllll the time, it's funny. Don't get upset guys, it's nothing personal.

 

[null]

You're a complete non-entity and not respected.

 

[Stunna77]

I think we can agree that the ptv for Eye is takedowns. Well, you Eye bettors had better get your vocal chords lubed with tea and honey because I think you're going to be screaming at your TVs for the whole fight if you play her.

She waits until there's all of 1:40 left in the fight with JRC to finally attempt her first TD. She gets it, off a clinch trip, no less. This single TD very well may have won her the fight, little did she know.

Giving us a preview of the Shevchenko death shot yet to come, Faria nearly kicks her head off in the 1st. In true WMMA fashion, they then proceed to scissor for 4 straight minutes. In the 2nd, Eye is able to pull guard to take Faria down and takes a dominant round. She again takes Faria down in the 3rd and would coast to a win from there but decides: no, I'll let her back up again LOL. Not to be outdone, Faria uses her new found freedom to, you guessed it, immediately clinch up. Twisted up, they fall down together and Eye muscles herself on to top position. Eye then boasts about how she's a great wrestler and no one cares about strikers in the post-fight interview. OK. She almost got KO'd twice by Faria but sure, you keep on not caring about striking. Let's see how that works out for you....

Against Chook, Eye goes for exactly 1 TD with 5 seconds left in the 1st and is easily stuffed. Actually, it looks like she would've ended up on bottom out of it. In the 2nd round: nada, not even an attempt. In the 3rd, again she waits until the last 5 seconds to shoot a TD and Chook makes her eats some punches for the trouble and again Eye would've maybe ended up on bottom had the bell not rung. In the real world that fight is a Draw.

Now Vivi.

In the 1st, Talita shoots from a mile away and Vivi stuffs it easily and ends up on top. In that short sequence we see Vivi actually looking quite dangerous against the bigger girl. She looks to have a choke under the chin just as the bell rings. In the 2nd, Vivi stuffs a very good intial entry and impressively defends the chains as well. When she actually bothers to try (which is basically never, by the way), Eye just isn't relentless like this with TDs. But back to this fight, Vivi could've taken Talita's back at the end of the lengthy TD attempt sequence but she breaks away instead. Vivi is noticeably tired after the grapple and gets hit clean a few times which she shuts down with a nice reactive double herself. Vivi comes out in the 3rd looking completely fresh again and finally, as we all know, a short notice dog, she lands a great KO on Talita.

Then she fights a wily, been-there vet in Davis. While fresh Vivi lights her up in the 1st. In the 2nd, off a sweep not a TD, Davis gets on top and beats Araujo up. I will concede that Araujo is terrible off her back. But it's not that easy to get her there. In the 3rd, however, a near-gassed Vivi stuffs 2 good takedown attempts (iirc she may have stuffed another one in the 2nd as well) and then continues to batter and bloody up Davis. Araujo tires because she has an inefficient, high energy output and because Davis keeps on walking her down in zombie mode. Eye doesn't have this kind of relentless pressure. I will stop just short of saying Vivi outright gasses; she obviously tires but she also seems to have quite good recovery during the round breaks.

On the feet, Aruajo is going to beat Eye up. She's too quick, too agile, too mobile, too powerful. Ironically, this might force Eye to go for takedowns where she might not've otherwise. But how many does she attempt? Like maybe she'll try for 3 all fight, instead of her normal 1 or 2? Or none at all? And then can she get Araujo down? I'm not convinced, at all.

Have fun losing your hair with Eye, lads. You guys might be right. She might go in there and Belal her way to a dominant win. But I think you expect her to do something that she's never done before. I don't see how you can be confident in Eye doing what needs to be done. She is very, very dumb in the Octagon. And I don't think it's all that easy to both track Vivi down and take her down. I may be made to look a fool if Vivi gets grapple-fucked but at least I do know exactly what my girl is gonna go in there to do.

I'll end on the Shevchenko kill shot. That was a fucking vicious KO with Eye lying out cold for many minutes. And that was only back in June; 189 days between it and this fight on the 14th. I'd be giving it at least 365 days but OK, it's just your brain.... Maybe it forces Eye to play a safer, grapple-heavy approach. This is possible. Just like it's possible she fights scared and tentative and gets smashed by a hard hitter again.

edit:

What good is all that without talking about betting?

1.5u at -138.
-175 is a little steep now. Eye is basically a complete pass for me no matter what, outside of the bizarre/stupid.

Any concern Vivi's striking looked better than it really is simply because she fought two absolute plodders in Talita and Davis? I am not convinced this isn't close on the feet. Eye's footwork, handspeed, and boxing all levels above those two. Mix in Vivi's complete lack of getups and inability to keep up her pacing for a full 5 minutes per round (which could allow Eye to finish strongly which we know the judges love), the +160 on Eye is looking wide IMO. Yet to tape fully though.

 

[Oblivian]

@Oblivian

what did you like about Moreno over Kai?

paiva was able to constantly stay in his face, eat his punches and land effective counters and takedowns. He even got a tight guillotine off defending a single leg but it was at the end of the round.

Moreno can push a pace and he's always scrambling. If he's able to implement grappling, he'll likely win the scrambles. Even if he's on his back, he'll be working. Kai is more of a threat standing of course, but he's somewhat underwhelmed me. It's almost like he's hesitant and reacting. IMO, this fight is likely to go to decision. I favor Moreno to win a decision based on pace.

With that said, judges are a bit odd scoring Moreno. Literally ever media outlet had him beat Benoit 30-27, but it was a split decision without any judges giving him 30-27! I thought it was blatantly clear that he beat Askarov. All play by plays had him winning except for one. Some had it 30-27 for Moreno. Somehow, it ends up a draw.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Taking:
Usman -170 3u
Holloway -165 5u
Aldo +170 2u
Akhmedov +130 1u

Props to come

 

[Sono07]

I post analysis for a fight or two every event, if you guys don't like it or don't agree that's fine, but this is a betting forum and I've had one losing event in the past 4/5 months and have consistently made money. My unit size has increased from £25 to £100 and I continue to have success.

So what if I said Jessica Eye was shite? She is.

Just because Jim Gunn makes these threads doesn't mean he has a fucking clue. The guy makes about 40 bets a card and loses alllll the time, it's funny. Don't get upset guys, it's nothing personal.

Two to 3 breakdowns per event? Now is that on bouts or other cappers?
My lord we should be so blessed, couldn't imagine you're tailing anyone else's picks without offering your own insight.
Pig breaks down 3 or more fights a card and doesn't waste people time in the process.
Genuine congratulations on the size of your units and your success but if your criticism is less constructive and more annoying you'll need a another new account soon just to get a response.

 

[Sono07]

Taking:
Usman -170 3u
Holloway -165 5u
Aldo +170 2u
Akhmedov +130 1u

Props to come

I dig it, you don't think the cut is too much for Aldo?

 

[benebox]

Will bet on
Usman decision @ 11/10
Holloway decision @ 7/4
Perry @ 9/4

Also tempted on a Nunes decision @ 4/1 but just because the odds are good.

 

[ApplesVild]

Two to 3 breakdowns per event? Now is that on bouts or other cappers?
My lord we should be so blessed, couldn't imagine you're tailing anyone else's picks without offering your own insight.
Pig breaks down 3 or more fights a card and doesn't waste people time in the process.
Genuine congratulations on the size of your units and your success but if your criticism is less constructive and more annoying you'll need a another new account soon just to get a response.

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

I dig it, you don't think the cut is too much for Aldo?

I'm very very very scared of the cut actually.

 

[Sono07]

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

Name drop all ya want my man. Just in case ya missed it I'm on a 4 card win streak with over 30% ROI on those cards.
Tail or fade. My picks are posted.
For the record glad your foolishness is posted we all need to learn from someone's mistakes

 

[ill800]

Taking:
Usman -170 3u
Holloway -165 5u
Aldo +170 2u
Akhmedov +130 1u

Props to come

you still like aldog?

 

[Gugabe]

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

You have success? Honestly you just seem to punt without taping, though I do guess you've been on the right side of a bunch of random -EV outcomes I can think of.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

you still like aldog?

You mean GOATdo? I do. Superior boxing, power, hand speed. The weight cut is a serious concern tho.

 

[HeadsUpPoker]

Am i crazy for picking Saunders against Matt Brown? +285 is hard to pass.

 

[ill800]

You mean GOATdo? I do. Superior boxing, power, hand speed. The weight cut is a serious concern tho.

The cut makes it a pass for me. I bought out of my aldog action

I’m definitely not paying juice for moraes after his performance against cejudo

 

[NonPhixion]

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

Dude you come across as a condescending prick