UFC 245 Usman vs Covington

[Caicara]

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

I respect JimGunn more than you. You don't buy respect, you earn it.

And if you don't care about other posters' opinion, stop whining about it and simply do your bets and profit.

 

[BigSteve]

Am i crazy for picking Saunders against Matt Brown? +285 is hard to pass.

Not at all, I cant play anyone that gets hurt to the body by a 2019 Diego Sanchez body kick. There is something seriously wrong in that part of the body for Brown. Finished by over the hill Elenberger with a kick, hurt by Sanchez, Silva and many more. Someones getting finished, biggest dog or pass on the whole card. Ben also spams knees to body and kicks.

 

[burge13]

FOTN
Aldo/Volk @ +333
Neal/Perry @ +700

 

[Soccer Steve]

Any concern Vivi's striking looked better than it really is simply because she fought two absolute plodders in Talita and Davis? I am not convinced this isn't close on the feet. Eye's footwork, handspeed, and boxing all levels above those two. Mix in Vivi's complete lack of getups and inability to keep up her pacing for a full 5 minutes per round (which could allow Eye to finish strongly which we know the judges love), the +160 on Eye is looking wide IMO. Yet to tape fully though.

Yeah, I have some overall concerns. Though the striking isn't really one of them. I think Vivi, while fresh, is much faster and hits pretty hard for the division. I think she'll win the optics battle for the pencil holders sitting ringside. While standing.

This fight was a pass for me until I logged on WH sometime last week and was surprised to see her at -138. BFO doesn't even show her ever being at that price but I got her there. That was right on the edge of what I would (did) play her at and I only went with a pretty modest 1.5u as it was.

The clincher for me here is that I know exactly what Vivi will do. She'll use too much energy trying to be first and probably beat Eye up for 4 minutes of Round 1 and 2 minutes of Round 2. After that, I don't really know what is going to happen. I also have no idea what Eye will do. Eye attempts next to no TDs per fight and doesn't seem to pursue chains and can even randomly get up even when in a dominant top position. However, I am also aware that one TD could be a round here with Vivi looking quite complacent on her back. That said, I have also seen Vivi stuff TD's and also look quite dangerous on the ground herself.

It's gonna be an annoying fight to be on either side of. I got in at a price I like so I'm alright with it. Can't find too much fault with someone taking a poke at +150 either. I would never play Eye though.

 

[Soccer Steve]

And because I think Vivi has a clear striking edge, certainly while fresh, in my opinion Eye's ptv in this fight is by decision with sustained top control over 3 rounds. This is something she's never done before.

 

[null]

FOTN
Aldo/Volk @ +333
Neal/Perry @ +700

Time to pull this one out of mothballs again:

 

[ApplesVild]

Dude you come across as a condescending prick

I am!

 

[Sono07]

I am!

Nothing wrong with that, it's your insistent need to remind everyone thats so annoying.

 

[Sono07]

I'm very very very scared of the cut actually.

Yeah I've got to see this one on the scale.
Hand speed is part of the reason I picked the Magic man. Still Aldo's sneaky pace and body shots are nothing to sleep on.
I may keep an eye on him after r1 for a hedge.

 

[ApplesVild]

Nothing wrong with that, it's your insistent need to remind everyone thats so annoying.

Literally said that 'Eye is shite', that's all I posted and Jim Gunn had some kind of emotional breakdown.

Sensitive bunch

 

[Sono07]

Literally said that 'Eye is shite', that's all I posted and Jim Gunn had some kind of emotional breakdown.

Sensitive bunch

Guy you've been shitting on people's bets since I made my account.
Eye may be shit I don't even know who she's fighting. If the point has escaped you your hot shit know it all approach is tiring to read. Remember clowning me for betting Askren? Well deserved at least in that instance but the salt gets old.
Let me provide you with a little peace of common advice where I am from.
"You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar"

 

[Broe.]

she finished a male fighter in the past.

Lol a 55 yr old guy who had never boxed before in his life, for a tv show. He trained for 3 months. He was also winnibg the first rounds lol until he gassed. I see this bs coming up all the time. She did not beat a male fighter lol.

 

[Martialbeef]

Petr Yan TKO/KO worth a bet?

 

[Broe.]

ok man i just watched the highlights of this fight,didn’t know these things.but i still think gdr deserve a shot.

Yeah no biggie. Germaine even says herself that she KO'd a male fighter lol. Which is very sad....

 

[Gugabe]

Guy you've been shitting on people's bets since I made my account.
Eye may be shit I don't even know who she's fighting. If the point has escaped you your hot shit know it all approach is tiring to read. Remember clowning me for betting Askren? Well deserved at least in that instance but the salt gets old.
Let me provide you with a little peace of common advice where I am from.
"You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar"

Man doesn't do tape, relies on random kneejerk judgements and has gotten lucky a few times. Always ends up the same way, broke.

 

[Sono07]

I'm dead, I have to go against the kid from Toy Story here

 

[mposhtkouhi]

How many fights do you post interesting or relevant analysis for? What is your current record? Do you even post your pre bets?

There's about 10 people on this page who actually consistently post their plays and show some level of success. I am one of them. SoccorSteve, Sadistics, PolarBearPaul, AustisThunder, Jordan, Bastaille, HeadsUpPoker, LiquidNuke and thats about it... Oh and JimGunn posts all of his loses too, much appreciated Jimbo.

I post all my bets right b4 each fight your a fool man

 

[LiquidNuke]

Petr Yan TKO/KO worth a bet?

I think it's almost assured. Uriah doesn't have the footwork to negate all that forward pressure like Dodson and Jimmie did.

 

[Sono07]

Seems like just about everyone is tired of applemush's shit. Get your pitchforks and torches here lmao.

 

[Sono07]

Anyone recommend tape on Omari?
Feeling fade on Ian against anyone who can stuff a single leg TD