UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

[Ryan Kelly]

I've been torn on Hall/ Jacare fight since I heard it was happening. I've always been a fan of Jacare but you can't deny he's looking a little old and unmotivated lately. Hall on the other hand, you never really know what you're gonna get with him. In his last fight Shoeface was able to get him down and even get his back a few times, but to Hall's credit, he escaped those tough positions. Would he be able to do the same against Jacare? Idk, but he might not even have to worry too much about it as it seems Jacare is just willing to stand and trade (albeit very little) the whole time. So I'd have to take Hall in this case with the better stand up imo. Any thoughts, I haven't done much tape really, but I just remember Jacare's last fight vs Jan was a snoozefest.

I have a small play on Hall. I’ve lost a fair amount of money betting on him as he’s an underachiever who hasn’t been able to put it together and perform at a level commensurate with his talent. But Jacare may very well be shot and as you said he seems content to just bang for whatever reason. I also think no audience may allow Hall to perform better bc maybe he feels less pressure. Hall is younger and more athletic at this point and also my instincts tell me Jacare is fade material now.

 

[benebox]

I agree that no audience definitely benefits Hall, although my thinking was it could also benefit Souza as there would also be less crowd pressure on the referee to separate them if Souza decides to tie him up against the cage.

I have a habit of giving ageing fighters the benefit of the doubt to perform so it may be the case here, I just believe he should have more than enough left in the tank to beat Hall.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

 

[matthew55]

Anybody else worried about fighters testing positive for covid pre fight? Seems like a lot more ppl have it or have had it than previously thought, and were just asymptomatic. I'm hoping all fights go through, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two fights are cancelled.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Anybody else worried about fighters testing positive for covid pre fight? Seems like a lot more ppl have it or have had it than previously thought, and were just asymptomatic. I'm hoping all fights go through, but I wouldn't be surprised if one or two fights are cancelled.

Theres a chance that someone could have Covid-19, be asymptomatic, AND get a false negative on their test lol. Probably slightly less likely than Ngannou subbing Jair.

 

[Sono07]

Just sat through a 6 hour CPR class wearing a face mask. Seems a little counter productive, if somebody falls out near me right now best of luck to them.

If this tweet is correct looks like USADA sending out DIY PED testing kits. Yeah I don't see anyway to get past that at all.....

 

[benebox]

Pettis / Cerrone
Who is more likely to fold, Pettis's body or Cerrone's chin? I'm betting against Cerrone, Pettis still has some fight left in the dog where as I'm not too sure Cerrone does at this point. He has openly said he didn't show up in 2 of his last 3 fights, why should this one be any different? Pettis has more ways to win, and Cerrone really doesn't game plan anymore so it would be wishful thinking that he will come in this with a grappling bully heavy game plan.

My prediction is that Pettis counters a Cowboy jab and win by KO.
Pettis -125 or KO +350 both have value in my eyes.

*Cowboy (like Hall) is another fighter who seems to freeze under the spot light so it should be interesting to see how he performs without a crowd.

Hardy / DeCastro
I actually predict Hardy will win a decision but as someone previously mentioned at +1200 it is worth a small punt that Castro does. If the fight goes the distance Hardy will probably win the first but once fatigue kicks in I could see Castro winning the following 2.

 

[Martialbeef]

very in depth analysis on most fights, especially Cruz Cejudo. Say what you want about this guy pushing his website but his actual analysis is on point and he does extensive research. He’s backing Dom.

 

[mkess101]

Pettis / Cerrone
Who is more likely to fold, Pettis's body or Cerrone's chin? I'm betting against Cerrone, Pettis still has some fight left in the dog where as I'm not too sure Cerrone does at this point. He has openly said he didn't show up in 2 of his last 3 fights, why should this one be any different? Pettis has more ways to win, and Cerrone really doesn't game plan anymore so it would be wishful thinking that he will come in this with a grappling bully heavy game plan.

My prediction is that Pettis counters a Cowboy jab and win by KO.
Pettis -125 or KO +350 both have value in my eyes.

*Cowboy (like Hall) is another fighter who seems to freeze under the spot light so it should be interesting to see how he performs without a crowd.

Hardy / DeCastro
I actually predict Hardy will win a decision but as someone previously mentioned at +1200 it is worth a small punt that Castro does. If the fight goes the distance Hardy will probably win the first but once fatigue kicks in I could see Castro winning the following 2.

The "who's more washed" discussions are always fun and depressing at the same time.

FWIW, I agree with you. Even if physically it's about even, Cerrone just seems mentally checked out. And 2 fights ago Pettis had chances to quit vs Nate but didn't, and even managed to sweep and get top position on him in a mat exchange. He couldn't deal with the grappling of CDF, but while Cowboy has great subs, he's just not a relentless beast going after the grappling like CDF is.

I like your thinking on Pettis ML and KO honestly.

 

[Sono07]

Cejudo says he is planning to KO/tko Cruz. Kinda what I'm leaning. Also says he will marry Aldo to get him a visa to "beat his ass". Well ah that's the first time I've heard that one.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

I've been torn on Hall/ Jacare fight since I heard it was happening.

You shouldn't be that torn on this fight, Matthew. The rule of thumb is don't trust Hall in any fight, and especially vs. veteran guys. He was getting worked by Bevon Lewis (and Jotko and Mousasi), until that miracle counter. Jacare doesn't take a lot of risks and the oppening for single fight ending shot will be much smaller. IMO in the worst case scenario it will be like the Blachowicz fight. Of course the fact that betting Jacare isn't paying a whole lot is making things a bit muddy. If Jacare was the underdog I would bet him without hesitating.

From all the underdogs, honestly the easiest I can make a case for is Jeremy Stephens. I realy feel him, guys. It's not "yeah Jeremy hits hard and can win at any moment" sort of thing. More like IMO he is maybe a bad match-up for Kattar? He's just not that kinda guy who Kattar can have his way with. He's not gonna be pushed around, he's not gonna give him space. Kattar's defence is just not good, his combos and timing are simple and you can see and prepare for. People who beat Jeremy with only striking are few and far between. We talk like two-three guys... All the rest of them had to also take him down or to push him to the fence to control him. Don't sleep on Jeremy, guys! I belive in him. Maybe more than I should, but whatever... And he is a big underdog, even if you think he should lose, there is no way these odds should be that wide. He is very very live underdog.

 

[mkess101]

You shouldn't be that torn on this fight, Matthew. The rule of thumb is don't trust Hall in any fight, and especially vs. veteran guys. He was getting worked by Bevon Lewis (and Jotko and Mousasi), until that miracle counter. Jacare doesn't take a lot of risks and the oppening for single fight ending shot will be much smaller. IMO in the worst case scenario it will be like the Blachowicz fight. Of course the fact that betting Jacare isn't paying a whole lot is making things a bit muddy. If Jacare was the underdog I would bet him without hesitating.

From all the underdogs, honestly the easiest I can make a case for is Jeremy Stephens. I realy feel him, guys. It's not "yeah Jeremy hits hard and can win at any moment" sort of thing. More like IMO he is maybe a bad match-up for Kattar? He's just not that kinda guy who Kattar can have his way with. He's not gonna be pushed around, he's not gonna give him space. Kattar's defence is just not good, his combos and timing are simple and you can see and prepare for. People who beat Jeremy with only striking are few and far between. We talk like two-three guys... All the rest of them had to also take him down or to push him to the fence to control him. Don't sleep on Jeremy, guys! I belive in him. Maybe more than I should, but whatever... And he is a big underdog, even if you think he should lose, there is no way these odds should be that wide. He is very very live underdog.

I started watching some tape and will add (said it before too): Kattar gets really heavy on that lead leg. It's good for that straight right that he zaps in behind his jab, but against a guy who can attack with leg kicks like Stephens can it's something to look for. I still think Kattar is the more polished striker overall. Especially because at times if Jeremy gets hit he just goes into headhunter/brawler mode and doesn't display how tight he's sometimes capable of being with his striking. But yeah...odds MIGHT be too wide on this one...

 

[mkess101]

Are they planning on doing all the prelims on ESPN TV, none on ESPN+? Given that there's no live sports that would seem to make sense, but I haven't seen anything confirming it. I just see 5d has all 8 prelim fights listed as ESPN.

 

[null]

Are they planning on doing all the prelims on ESPN TV, none on ESPN+? Given that there's no live sports that would seem to make sense, but I haven't seen anything confirming it. I just see 5d has all 8 prelim fights listed as ESPN.

If you look here https://www.ufc.com/events# it says ESPN & ESPN+ for UFC 249 and the May 16th card. Only ESPN+ for the May 13th card though. Which is wise to have it shown on both places as much as possible, so people who have ESPN+ or who just have cable tv like casual fans or general sports fans can watch during this pandemic time with almost no live sports. As a cordcutter I'd be really annoyed if the majority of these cards were *only* on ESPN on tv and not on ESPN+. There are a lot of people who don't have cable or satellite tv any more and more so every day. The trend is only accelerating as of late. It's bad enough we have to put up with the ESPN tv channel only cards every couple of months or so.

 

[mkess101]

If you look here https://www.ufc.com/events# it says ESPN & ESPN+ for UFC 249 and the May 16th card. Only ESPN+ for the May 13th card though. Which is wise to have it shown on both places as much as possible, so people who have ESPN+ or who just have cable tv like casual fans or general sports fans can watch during this pandemic time with almost no live sports. As a cordcutter I'd be really annoyed if the majority of these cards were *only* on ESPN on tv and not on ESPN+. There are a lot of people who don;t have cable or satellite tv any more and more so every day. It's bad enough we have to put up with the ESPN only cards every couple of months or so .

Gotcha, sorry, I should have clarified. I didn't mean only on ESPN TV. I just meant that the early prelims would be aired on it instead of ONLY on ESPN+. I agree, they should be putting it on every platform they have, 100% it makes sense to do that.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Pettis / Cerrone
Who is more likely to fold, Pettis's body or Cerrone's chin? I'm betting against Cerrone, Pettis still has some fight left in the dog where as I'm not too sure Cerrone does at this point. He has openly said he didn't show up in 2 of his last 3 fights, why should this one be any different? Pettis has more ways to win, and Cerrone really doesn't game plan anymore so it would be wishful thinking that he will come in this with a grappling bully heavy game plan.

My prediction is that Pettis counters a Cowboy jab and win by KO.
Pettis -125 or KO +350 both have value in my eyes.

*Cowboy (like Hall) is another fighter who seems to freeze under the spot light so it should be interesting to see how he performs without a crowd.

I'm on that pettis train and I know it could derail at any moment. Pettis has better offense with a more aggressive style and Cowboy is gonna give him that space to do all that dumb Pettis shit. But after this I don't wana see either guy in the UFC ever again. They're both collecting checks and don't give a fuck if they lose.

 

[null]

Gotcha, sorry, I should have clarified. I didn't mean only on ESPN TV. I just meant that the early prelims would be aired on it instead of ONLY on ESPN+. I agree, they should be putting it on every platform they have, 100% it makes sense to do that.

According to one tv schedule I see online at TitanTV, the UFC 249 prelims will be on ESPN at 6 pm ET on the 9th; no prelims on ESPN on the 13th; and prelims at 7 pm ET on the 16th plus main card at 10 pm ET on the 16th on ESPN. Which lines up with what it says on UFC.com about the tv channel broadcast.

 

[null]

 

[matthew55]

The "who's more washed" discussions are always fun and depressing at the same time.

FWIW, I agree with you. Even if physically it's about even, Cerrone just seems mentally checked out. And 2 fights ago Pettis had chances to quit vs Nate but didn't, and even managed to sweep and get top position on him in a mat exchange. He couldn't deal with the grappling of CDF, but while Cowboy has great subs, he's just not a relentless beast going after the grappling like CDF is.

I like your thinking on Pettis ML and KO honestly.

I heard Cowboy wanted to fight on the next 3 cards, which are all in a week lol. Seems like he just wants to finish out whatever contract he has and be done. He had a solid run to the top and then ran into some killers.
I think Pettis did look for a way out in the fight with Nate but Nate decided to grapple instead of keeping on hitting him. I just don't think it'll get that far and Pettis should win in the first. But just in case, i'll probably have a little on Cowboy 2nd and 3rd round.

 

[ill800]

Here are a few thoughts I have about some of these matches. I haven’t done much taping so far, so keep that in mind as a disclaimer

cerrone may fair better without the pressure of a live audience. I’d probably give him the advantage in a short notice fight as well.

oleyniks striking looked a little better against greene. It was a bit more fluid and he was doing more than simply loading up on the overhand right.

Werdum looked like he still had some speed left against volkov. He played it tentatively on the feet but there were times where he would throw some fluid combinations. You could tell he wanted the fight on the ground.

He didn’t get kod until late in the 4th round after he was pretty gassed from all the wrestling exchanges and got wreckless.

I don’t think he particularly showed a bad chin in that fight. It took a pretty solid uppercut from volkov to drop him and it was a pretty close fight up until then.

Oleynik only knows one style and he basically just wings overhand rights to close distance in order to wrap you up. I would think Werdum is going to be able to figure out a way to counter oleyniks game.

Wouldn’t lay -310 on it. I think oleyniks only ptv lies in the 1st round. He slows dramatically after that if he has to engage

Odds are a bit wide right now for someone coming off a 2 year layoff and a ped suspension.


Jacare at -120 might seem like a steal after the fight is over.

Sam alvey has some upset potential at his current price. Would probably only play his ko line

kattar has rarely shown the ability to check leg kicks. Stephens should know this and exploit it.

Rozenstruik has a ridiculous chin and is a better striker than ngannou. I wouldnt be surprised if this ends up going to decision.

does Cejudo really have knockout power or has he just feasted on depleted fighters?