UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

mkess101 said:
Both are 42 but Alexei has a lot more mileage and Werdum might not be in great shape but at his age a 2 year layoff can have benefits too.
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he has but he is not fighting a spring chicken.

Unlike Alexei Werdum is set financially and wont be fighting for a title any time soon, 2 year lay off and a usada suspension.
Alexei been keeping busy both in the cage and in grappling tournaments.

Stylistically this is a night mare match up for Alexei but the flags are huge for Werdum considering this is hw, age, lay off, Usada suspension and coming off a beating against Volkov.
 
Ngannou/Rozenstruik

For a guy with a kickboxing background, Rozenstruik's defense leaves a bit to be desired. He just plain gets hit too much to have any confidence he survives this fight IF you buy into Ngannou's power as being not just really good, but special even at HW. I do. Rozenstruik has shown a very good chin, but at this point I just wouldn't have confidence betting that another striker who's shown they can be hit will survive Ngannou's power. It's a very simplistic view of this fight I realize, but it's just how I see it. The guys to give Frances problems imo are going to be slick strikers with great footwork who can make him chase and who can avoid his power (and who the hell is that at HW ha ha?) or those who can do what Stipe did to him and wear him down early by making him defend in the grappling game, so that his power becomes moot. That's not Jair imo. He's kickboxer with good power himself who gets hit too often. So if you're giving me Ngannou's power plus his chin vs Jair's power and his chin, I'm taking Ngannou every time.

I think Nagnnou itd at -160 has a little value, I do think he touches that chin sometime in the first 2 rounds and ends it.
 
mkess101 said:
Both are 42 but Alexei has a lot more mileage and Werdum might not be in great shape but at his age a 2 year layoff can have benefits too.
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Being off Trenbelone can't have many benefits
 
Kyle Stephens said:
He's going to knock him out cold.
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I imagine he will throw everything but the kitchen sink. Especially since he already ate everything but the sink, I'll be happy if he hit his +3 1/2 points. Saw some reddit comments about his weight miss that had me dieing.

"I'm the hardest hitter in the 150.5 pound division"

"Who the fook ate that pie?"
<FookIsThatGuy>
 
mkess101 said:
For a guy with a kickboxing background, Rozenstruik's defense leaves a bit to be desired. He just plain gets hit too much
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I don't think that Reem missed a single left shot in their fight. I'm serious. That's the fight that made people praise Roze's chin - because he absorbed so much clean shots.

I do think he can take Ngannou shot, even if it's the hardest one. But won't just walk through it like he did with Alistair's. One will rock him or wobble him and the rest will finish the job. And he doesn't have a plan B when he's rocked. He doesn't have good clinch/TD game or instincts to disengage and reset. At least I've not seen such, even in his KB matches.
 
Cejudo has a cut by his eye that can be exploited, but Dom looks like a ghost. People are expecting a long fight, but I'm not convinced
 
Austisthunder said:
You tailing the sharps is a death sentence on picks
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Shouldn't you be making up your own mind about your bets if indeed you are making any? Not basing your analysis on some superstition about what some other bettors may or may not be doing?
 
Austisthunder said:
Doing the inverse of your bets is wildly popular so nah

i will continue to feast on your anguish
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Presuming someone else feels anguish calls for the operation of another person's mind. You're simply not capable of it, Mr. Yellow Card.
 
Looks like the prices on Ngannou and Cejudo are improving as well.

 
JimGunn said:
Presuming someone else feels anguish calls for the operation of another person's mind. You're simply not capable of it, Mr. Yellow Card.
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I think his form of troll victory is just baiting any kind of response.
 
mkess101 said:
Ha no, for sure. I'm saying just for letting your brain recover from trauma, etc.
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I wouldn't even be shocked if werdum is on some new supplement now that isn't detected by usada. Who knows? But also who cares in this matchup? Oleyniks not going to change his style and unless he gets a KO from one of his sledgehammer hooks in the first few mins he's outclassed in all realms and finished soon thereafter. I've guessed correctly in like oleyniks last 5 fights and feel like I have an understanding on when he's going to win or lose. Strongly feeling a loss in this one.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Werdum is a bad matchup BUT he didnt look Great at weigh ins, some red flags around him too.
Oleynik on The other hand looked good and is motivated because of financial problems.

Oleynik is worth a stab
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He's got financial problems? That is kinda sad man, at that age in his career..
 
Kyle Stephens said:
I don't think that Reem missed a single left shot in their fight. I'm serious. That's the fight that made people praise Roze's chin - because he absorbed so much clean shots.

I do think he can take Ngannou shot, even if it's the hardest one. But won't just walk through it like he did with Alistair's. One will rock him or wobble him and the rest will finish the job. And he doesn't have a plan B when he's rocked. He doesn't have good clinch/TD game or instincts to disengage and reset. At least I've not seen such, even in his KB matches.
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I think he's probably still adjusting to MMA gloves imo. The guy does fight very sloppy but he's more well rounded than Francis. Honestly Jarz's jab (in my opinion) is his biggest weapon alongside his leg kicks. Francis is just giant that spams hooks and uppercuts until he hits something. Even if I lose this bet on Jarz it's still going to be so fucking enjoyable to watch.
 
rille31 said:
Oleynik likes to go for takedowns

Any chance he takedowns doom and survives in his guard?
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Werdum coudlnt submit bum like Travis Brown so I woudlnt worry
SolarSeiko said:
He's got financial problems? That is kinda sad man, at that age in his career..
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Yeah, thats heartbreaking.. He had to borrow 17k$ I read that on a site. I hope he wins
 
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