UFC 249 Ferguson vs Gaethje (May 9th)

Vendettax said:
I got Cruz but struggling with ML or DEC
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Decision for extra value. Cejudo absorbed absurd punishment from moraes and bulled forward. Durable and mentally strong as hell he's not going to get finished by cruz's point style approach. I think they cancel each other's wrestling out so don't have to worry about subs either.
 
SolarSeiko said:
I think he's probably still adjusting to MMA gloves imo. The guy does fight very sloppy but he's more well rounded than Francis. Honestly Jarz's jab (in my opinion) is his biggest weapon alongside his leg kicks. Francis is just giant that spams hooks and uppercuts until he hits something. Even if I lose this bet on Jarz it's still going to be so fucking enjoyable to watch.
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Francis' striking - when he has to bring it to his opponent - is incredible ugly and frankly ineffective. He can't hide his entries, everything he throws is with 100% power and is loopy as shit. But when he allows for his opponent to make the 1st move and open himself up, his strikes get through a lot easier. His counters are just devastating. He uses the same shots for his counters, but he is very fast and powerful and he really only needs one or two clean connections.

Just because Francis is so one dimentional I'll give the well roundedness to Jair, but not by much. He doesn't have that much more tools than Francis, let's be real. This is still HW division, you can get by by very little here, even some of the top guys are more or less one note fighters.

I don't blame you for putting cash on the juicy underdog. Even if I think Francis should win, I am not confident at all.
 
Kyle Stephens said:
Just because Francis is so one dimentional I'll give the well roundedness to Jair, but not by much. He doesn't have that much more tools than Francis, let's be real.
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Gotta disagree with ya there. Maybe Jairzinho's stand up is more diverse but not by much. Both had clinch battles with Overeem and only man won. It was brief and maybe as much power as technique but Ngannou manhandled Reem against the cage before he found the finish.

If nothing else between his clinch work and 4 subs he might have an advantage against the less seasoned grappler. Even if it is just to set up some GNP.
 
Sono07 said:
Gotta disagree with ya there. Maybe Jairzinho's stand up is more diverse but not by much. Both had clinch battles with Overeem and only man won. It was brief and maybe as much power as technique but Ngannou manhandled Reem against the cage before he found the finish.

If nothing else between his clinch work and 4 subs he might have an advantage against the less seasoned grappler. Even if it is just to set up some GNP.
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I think grappling would be a mistake from ngannu. Grappling with stipe gassed him out of his mind, whereas rozen grappling with overeem didn't affect his cardio and he still retained power in the last few seconds of the 5th round. This fight is tough to call whether it ends in first few mins or a low volume kickboxing fight. -300 on ngannu is terrible though.
 
Been thinking about cerrone vs pettis more and I originally thought pettis would wash him but this might be more of a coin flip than I thought. Pettis last fight was easily one of his worst performances, as was cerrone's. I watched tape on cerrone vs al iquinta and he looked solid and ate some solid punches. Mcregor and Gaethje really just caught him with good shots that would probably buzz most guys and Tony beats up everyone.

Part of me thinks if Pettis connects just once cerrone will fold, but what if he doesn't and the fight gets dragged out ? I don't trust cerrone to keep up the pace to tire pettis out but both of them are coming in here on three weeks notice and might gas fast.

I might stay away the more I think about it.
 
Been thinking about cerrone vs pettis more and I originally thought pettis would wash him but this might be more of a coin flip than I thought. Pettis last fight was easily one of his worst performances, as was cerrone's. I watched tape on cerrone vs al iquinta and he looked solid and ate some solid punches. Mcregor and Gaethje really just caught him with good shots that would probably buzz most guys and Tony beats up everyone.

Part of me thinks if Pettis connects just once cerrone will fold, but what if he doesn't and the fight gets dragged out ? I don't trust cerrone to keep up the pace to tire pettis out but both of them are coming in here on three weeks notice a
 
Wiktoruspro said:
I think tko is more likely, after r1 Pettis will slow down
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I think cerrone
TrueAscension said:
Ok some thoughts:

Ryan Spann should annihilate Alvey on paper but his last fight leaves a lot to be desired on tape. He is super hesitant and I felt he lost the first round even though he walked his opponent down the whole round. He simply didn’t throw. Whether he was just being overly patient or was gun shy I don’t know but enough reason to consider taking the Alvey +250 points

Greg Hardy is always a non bet for me but I can see him getting countered. I hope we see him get meme TKOd

Rosen is a fine striker but he’s really coming up several levels here. I think the fight stays a little patty cakes a la the Lewis fight with some strong leg kicks for Ngannou to win by decision. Best bet is it hits cards but I got Ngannou sub at +1500 and I really like that bet a lot

Cerrone and Pettis is a fight I would have liked to have seen years ago. Oh wait I did. Pettis TKO R1 @ these odds yes please

You all know I’m on Gaethje and I have him by TKO

Verdum is too much chalk so best bet for me is the under

I like the odds on Watterson submission, she almost had one locked up against JJ a couple times and that’s JJ. Close fight that will probably hit the cards but those are good odds.

My biggest bet on this card value wise will be the over on subs. I think we could see 6 or 7 of them and the value on that should be recklessly high
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Lol I'm the other way 1 fight ends in sub
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
I think grappling would be a mistake from ngannu. Grappling with stipe gassed him out of his mind, whereas rozen grappling with overeem didn't affect his cardio and he still retained power in the last few seconds of the 5th round. This fight is tough to call whether it ends in first few mins or a low volume kickboxing fight. -300 on ngannu is terrible though.
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Not recommending he grapples I just think he has better use of the clinch. Stipe gassed Francis with top control and much better wrestling than most any HW, I think it's part of how Stipe beat Overeem too.
This is also 3 rounds not 5 rounds and neither man has ever been stopped.

I got Ngannou -280 NSC for the same price as his ML the other day on dimes. Felt like value to me especially since the ML is -265 and that NSC line moved to -425. Any suggestions on books with better props? Bovada sucks and Dimes isn't great.
 
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Sono07 said:
Not recommending he grapples I just think he has better use of the clinch. Stipe gassed Francis with top control and much better wrestling than most any HW, I think it's part of how Stipe beat Overeem too.
This is also 3 rounds not 5 rounds and neither man has ever been stopped.

I got Ngannou -280 NSC for the same price as his ML the other day on dimes. Felt like value to me especially since the ML is -265 and that NSC line moved to -425. Any suggestions on books with better props?
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Good call going with NSC, I like that better than his ML. I only use b365 so I don't know, sounds like your bookie has more props than mine.
 
For anyone who has time to listen:

Man it’s been a long 8 weeks or so. It was tough to get back into the swing of things with capping etc but here we go. We got 4 cards in 14 days so now we’re jam packed with events.




I could use some subs to get the numbers up if anyone’s gracious enough to do so.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
For anyone who has time to listen:

Man it’s been a long 8 weeks or so. It was tough to get back into the swing of things with capping etc but here we go. We got 4 cards in 14 days so now we’re jam packed with events.




I could use some subs to get the numbers up if anyone’s gracious enough to do so.
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Thanks for posting.. can you post a link youtube link that cam be opened on their site. It would be easier to like
 
Small prop bet on Stephens but it should have been 40%

 
JimGunn said:
I haven't touted any side on this fight and have almost zero action on this card so far. Not sure what you're on about.
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People on reddit been saying you lost your entire bankroll, the last of which was spent on cowboy. This is surely not true?
 
Spann 2u
Mitchell 1u
Luque 1u
Souza 1u
Esparza 1u
Werdum 1u
Cerrone/Pettis I really still don't know
De Castro 1u, that's my dog
Had Kattar 1u but Stephens missing weight made me rethink that, especially with such a line
Ngannou 1u
Ferguson 1u
 
JimGunn said:
This forum is just Troll Central at this point.
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I'm not making this up, I can direct you to the thread if you'd like. I havn't been very active here for past few events so it's a genuine question.
 
Rumored Souza fight is off, Souza has the Rona. And i don't mean Ricardo.
 
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