UFC 254 - Khabib vs. Gaethje - Official thread

GoatArtemLobov said:
Pouah this takes some balls. What's your unit size?
Click to expand...
I bet like max $1200 per fight (usually much lower). For certain confident picks I make an exception (Khabib vs Conor, Conor vs Mayweather, Usman vs Masvidal etc.) Depending on the odds of course.
 
Broe. said:
I bet like max $1200 per fight (usually much lower). For certain confident picks I make an exception (Khabib vs Conor, Conor vs Mayweather, Usman vs Masvidal etc.) Depending on the odds of course.
Click to expand...
Then 10k is indeed a lot.
I always limit myself to 4u (and glad I do because I would've put even more on Zombie if not lol), but it's true that for some fights (Conor-Money being the perfect example) it wouldn't hurt to go heavier.
 
Like a few dogs here

Was hoping to like Wood but I think Kenney just has more tools to draw on
 
2020Tracked said:
Like a few dogs here

Was hoping to like Wood but I think Kenney just has more tools to draw on
Click to expand...
It seems pretty even to me. I think Kenny's last fight was great but also maybe a bit deceptive to how good he is because the competition wasn't very good. He didn't look all that great vs Dvashvili. I think on the feet they are quite even but the deciding factor could be the grappling. I put a small bet on Wood at 2.7.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Got a triple going of 300$ (all the money I had in a Bet DSI account for funsies) on Khabib -250/Ankalaev -280/Kenney -200.

That is all.

tenor.gif
Click to expand...
Im on this like crack
 
I am liking Wood i might take Wood By Sub. Any Early props looking for his Sub line? to early for those lines?
 
khabib/gaethje -200 FDNGTD seems safe enough -- but i thought that against KZ/Ortega as well...
 
There aren't a lot of fights I like on this card. I think Ankalaev is a solid play with Cutelaba rd1 as hedge. I also like the over 1.5 in that. It was rescheduled a bunch of times due to positive Covid tests for Cutelaba which makes his suspect cardio look worse, but both should have had a fairly normal fight camp. I think the original odds were around -320 for Ankalaev with over 1.5 at 125 and Cutelaba rd1 at 600 with Cutelaba tko at 385. Easy to hedge.

I like Tuivasa a little bit. His ground game is terrible, his cardio is bad, but he can really throw hands and he moves well for a huge guy. Doubt his work ethic though. I think it's a Tuivasa TKO and Struve SUB prop hedge kind of fight. Struve is almost blind on his left side and anyone who can throw a decent overhand right should ko him. Tuivasa wobbled Ivanov to the point Ivanov's corner sounded scared between rounds 2 and 3 and that's tough to do. FDGTD is too steep, but probably a safe play. I hate betting 265.

Volkov has beaten some Harris types already. He's a better striker with a better ground game and a decent chin. He was crushing Lewis until the freak TKO. Higher strikes landed, faced better guys, rated higher and just overall a better fighter. Probably plays out like the Harris/Abdurakhimov fight except Volkov has the reach and height advantage. Might hedge with Harris TKO because it's 265.

Khabib got stuffed by Iaquinta a number of times, but I haven't seen enough of Gaethje's takedown defense to make me a believer. Khabib holds his chin high when striking and will take a bunch of hard leg kicks, but his chin has looked solid. The odds are way too high, but I like Khabib a little bit. Interested in Khabib SUB and Gaethje TKO props and maybe the DEC props.

Whittaker has faced much better guys than Cannonier, but that power and those calf kicks are a big concern. Whittaker evaded and survived Romero for 10 rounds so I kind of doubt the finish ability of Cannonier, but he is a beast. Cannonier doesn't feint or move his head much and Whittaker lands a lot more strikes, but unless Whittaker lands a head kick I doubt he finishes it. I'm not sure Whittaker has enough to get takedowns and I really doubt he keeps it down so I expect this to play out on the feet similar to the Till fight unless Cannonier lands something big.

Alvey is on the decline and doesn't like to wrestle so I doubt his chances. This might be a fun rock 'em sock 'em robots type of fight. Probably a TKO finish for Jung and Alvey getting cut.

Kenney looked great in his last fight because Alateng didn't shoot once, but Wood isn't a great offensive wrestler. Wood doesn't really have 1 hit KO power and Kenney has a great chin. I think Wood may be underrated on the ground and I'm not sure how Kenney's takedowns will look, but I think Kenney can get it down. I don't like the fast turnaround, but against a British striker it may be ok. Kind of think it goes long.

Alvarez and Yakovlev are both tall and long for that division, but the striking edge goes to Alvarez. I think Yakovlev has a decent duck under double and clinch takedowns which should work, but his kryptonite is the armbar and Alvarez can easily transition from the triangle to the armbar. Looks like a young prospect going up against a solid but declining fighter. I think Yakovlev can get it down and grind at least 2 rounds, but his cardio has me concerned. Might hedge with Alvarez SUB prop.
 
Calvilo out, Liliya Shakirova stepping in against Murphy. Kabibs cousin also out
 
like Tuivasa at dog odds. Struve should not be favourite against most HW's. Don't really rate Tai's fight game but the Struve/Rothwell fight was embarassing, Struve will fold quick if 1 lands
 
Broe. said:
10k khabib x1.44. If Khabib loses I will retire from MMA betting.
Click to expand...

You know I was considering putting $1000, my largest wager on Khabib, he can’t lose. -300 seems like a steal honestly. I might be joining you if Khabib loses too.


Gaethje has one finish after round 3 and that was round 5 vs Ferguson. If Khabib takes Gaethje down early, I think he can RNC him within the first round. I do not believe Gaethje or any other LW for that matter, can defend a choke if Khabib wants it.
 
Last edited:
Crimp_Keeper said:
You know I was considering putting $1000, my largest wager on Khabib, he can’t lose. -300 seems like a steal honestly.


Gaethje has one finish after round 3 and that was round 5 vs Ferguson. If Khabib takes Gaethje down early, I think he can RNC him within the first round. I do not believe Gaethje or any other LW for they matter, can defend a choke if Khabib wants it.
Click to expand...

100% agree,

Khabib can’t and won’t lose this fight. I’m going big on the SUB line and I expect it to be my biggest bet of the year....
 
I have the same feeling about Justin that I had about Ortega, that he is going to win, and 80% of sherdog vill be on khabib they were on zombie. I feel that Khabib will actually start to gas in the late 2nd, 3rd round, I think Justin rocks him harder than Poirer did, his legs go noodly, and Justin finishes with a tko/ ground and pound.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,118
Messages
55,539,020
Members
174,820
Latest member
Víctor Hugo Teco

Share this page

Back
Top