UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno

Tony -170 is my pick. He is going to make Charles wilt under pressure once Charles realizes he can’t put Tony away.

I think Tony hits him to the body and accumulates the damaged from there. Tony is also lankier and will pick his shots better jabs and all.

Charles doesn’t have the best defense, all he does is cover up leaving his body exposed, we’ve seen this happen multiple times and he still hasn’t done anything about it even in recent fights.

His striking has only looked good against guys who are so scared of his ground game that they all freeze up on the feet or are scared to overextend. Tony is not afraid of this guy. He’s going to throw whatever he wants without holding back like most of Charles’ opponents.

There might be a close first round but I expect Tony to turn it up in the 2nd and 3rd if it gets there.

Also of note, Charles is not going to walk Tony down and pressure him. It will be Tony moving forward and I don’t think Charles will like that.
 
Ryan Kelly said:
Virna being on top for 15 mins is very possible. Dern does not have good wrestling and idk why everyone is parroting the idea that Dern has a massive advantage on the feet here. Dern obv superior pure bjj player but I don’t see Virna getting guard subbed. I like Virna and Virna DEC.
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I am not parroting anything and you do not seem to understand the difference between the upper and lower echelons of WMMA fighters.

We have limited information and instead of making wild leaps of logic we can try to compare and contrast what we do know.

Based on Virnas previous UFC fights she has shown little to no proficiency as a striker; she is a below average striker. Dern on the other hand has shown herself to be aggressive (Ribas fight), hold above average power for a straw-weight (knocked down ABC), but is not smooth and choreographs her strikes. While neither of them is a world-beater it is very clear based on their previous fights Dern has a significant advantage in striking.

Dern is a significantly better grappler and has the skills to submit Virna off her back if necessary. We also saw Dern shoot double underhooks into a bodylock against Ribas, and was nearly successful in taking her down with that if not for the judo of Ribas which allowed her to gain top position. Virna has some judo in her background but nothing seemingly of significance or that she has shown.

Jandiroba could certainly win the fight, but is it likely? No, and it is very likely the number next to Jandirobas name is the only reason she is not a +300 underdog which is about where her chances of realistically winning are.
 
orgazmo said:
It is also possible that he was over-training in addition to all of the other things (double weight cut, late opponent change) which contributed to him looking bad in that fight, for that reason, I believe that the short notice may be beneficial to Tony in this instance. It is all a question of how much did that last fight affect him. That was a career changing/possibly life changing beating, I have never seen anyone take so many flush power punches, how he survived that for so long and still didn't go down I will never know.

I believe that Tony will look much better in this fight and overwhelm Oliveira with pressure. I do not believe that Oliveira has the power in his hands to back Tony off of him on the feet, especially while moving backwards, and I believe that Tony should be crafty enough to survive on the ground if Oliveira takes it there. Also, this fight should be exciting as fuck, love both guys.
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My thoughts exactly. I 100% associate that sluggish mode that Tony was in with over-training. I don't he'll have trouble to train for three rounds but would be hesitant to bet him in 5 round fights.
 
Maybe I'm fetishising Dern's BJJ win over Gabi Garcia too much, but it seems absurd to me that she would be pinned down for three rounds by an inferior grappler at same weight class. Surely she has strength and technique to scramble and improve position.
 
TrueAscension said:
MARLEY'S PICKS

Deiveson Figueiredo (-320) vs. Brandon Moreno (+260): Figueiredo by TKO

These guys fought on the same card three weeks ago. They both got first-round finishes and are making a quick turnaround. Neither took any damage, so the weight cuts are really the only worry for the timeline. Figueiredo is perhaps the most dangerous 125-pounder we have seen in the UFC, as 17 of his 20 wins are finishes and 11 of those have come in Round 1. I am going to pick him Saturday because I think the most likely outcome is that he gets a knockout or a submission. I'm also recommending an inside-the-distance prop for better odds if your sportsbook offers this.

Tony Ferguson (-165) vs. Charles Oliveira (+145): Oliveira by submission

I love this fight! I am a bit biased on this though because I pretty much always pick Oliveira. I said he was going to be the champ one day the first time I saw him fight and I think he can beat anybody in the world, so it's hard to pick against him, especially as an underdog. Ferguson is the better striker here and he should have the better pace, cardio, and durability. Oliveira is solid on the feet but his edge in this fight is going to be on the mat. I think Oliveira is the best submission artist in the UFC and if he can get this fight to the mat, I think he can tap Ferguson out. I do think the only way Oliveira wins is by submission though so I would take the submission prop for a better line. I do think Ferguson wins this fight more than he loses it though, so I don't love the value for Oliveira on the ML, but I will stick with my guy and pick him to get a sub.

Rafael Fiziev (-150) vs. Renato Moicano (+130): Moicano by submission

This is a great matchup, and I am high on both guys. Fiziev is a great striker and he is the more dangerous and durable striker. He strikes at a high pace as well, but the volume edge on the feet should go to Moicano. Moicano is the better grappler and that is going to be his safest and best path to victory. Moicano can keep this fight close on the feet and he can use takedowns and grappling to win rounds. He can also lock up a submission if he is able to get takedowns. This is a hard one to pick but I think it is pretty close to 50-50, which leads me to taking the underdog.

Kevin Holland (-120) vs. Ronaldo Souza (+110): Holland by decision

This is a big step up for Holland, but Souza is 41 years old now and clearly on the decline. This is a close fight on the feet, but I do give the edge to Holland. He is the taller guy with a 9" reach advantage and he should be the one throwing more volume. Both guys are capable of getting a knockout and they are both solid on the ground. I do give the grappling edge to Souza though and Holland is not very hard to take down. It's hard to trust Souza to go for takedowns though because he has 0 in his last 3 fights and he hasn't landed more than 1 since 2014. I am going to lean Holland here, but he is a hard guy to trust with your money

Ciryl Gane (-440) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+360): Gane by TKO

Dos Santos is one of my favorite fighters of all time, but he just isn't the same guy anymore. Gane could be a future champion in this division, and this seems like a matchup to build him up by knocking out a former champ. Skill-wise, Dos Santos is still viable. He can box and wrestle his way to a decision, or even get a knockout. He just doesn't have the power he used to, and he is nowhere near as durable as he once was. I think Gane gets a knockout, but the price is too steep to consider a serious wager.

Daniel Pineda (-145) vs. Cub Swanson (+125): Swanson by decision

I was impressed by both these guys' last performances and this should be a fun fight. I see this being close on the feet, with Swanson landing more volume but Pineda throwing with more power and landing the harder shots. I think Pineda is more likely to look to get to the mat as well, and he can have success there in top control and possibly get a submission. I would give a slight edge to Pineda, but the -150 line indicates he wins this matchup 60 percent of the time and that seems too high. For that reason, I will take Swanson to squeak out a close decision.

Mackenzie Dern (-180) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+160): Jandiroba by decision

This is the best grappling matchup we can get in women's mixed martial arts. Both fighters are excellent on the ground and I hope we see a lot of scrambles in order to determine the superior grappler. I would give Dern the edge on the feet, but Jandiroba gets the wrestling edge and I think she will be the one in top control more often than not. We could see a submission from the bottom from either combatant, but the grappling is the big question mark. At this price, the value lies with the underdog.

Billy Quarantillo (-140) vs. Gavin Tucker (+120): Quarantillo by decision

Quarantillo is a late starter but he is a volume machine. I would give him the grappling edge because I really only like Tucker on the mat if he is in top control. Tucker is a solid striker with good movement, and I think he will give Quarantillo trouble on the feet, especially early. This is a tough call, but I am leaning with Quarantillo because I expect him to throw more volume as the fight moves along, and I think he is more likely to get a finish.

Sergey Spivak (-230) vs Jared Vanderaa (+195): Spivac by submission

Vanderaa has not been fighting great competition but, lucky for him, Spivac isn't exactly world-class, either. I think Spivac is the better all-around fighter, however. Vanderaa can win on the feet, but a knockout is probably his best shot because Spivac has the striking edge. Vanderaa can also land takedowns and land some heavy ground and pound, but Spivac is the better grappler and I think he is more likely to land takedowns and get a finish on the mat.

Chase Hooper (-420) vs. Peter Barrett (+340): Barrett by TKO

I wouldn't lay -400 on Hooper against anybody in the UFC. If you like Hooper, bet the submission prop, if available, because that is his biggest edge and the most likely outcome. Hooper is not a good wrestler, but Barrett has bad takedown defense. If Hooper can get him down, he probably gets a submission. Hooper is a bad striker, so he has to win with grappling and he is very hittable on the feet. I think Barrett is very live for a knockout, so I will go out on a limb and take him to get it.
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I hate these picks tbh
 
I hope Fiziev wins this. He is very exciting and Moicano, well... isn't as much.

Also, Fiziev is at a much higher level of striking.
 
Danis_champ said:
Who the fuck is Marley?

next time put your text into quotes so we know these are not your thoughts. how the fuck shouldI have known maybe your real name or previous nickname is Marley?
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Listen you mental fucking midget, I post those for other people’s conveniences. Instead of shitposting, make your own bets or analysis on the card or move along.
 
Happy to bet Oliveira at plus odds, I would never bet a nearly 37 years old Ferguson.
Oliveira will win inside distance
Moicano vs Fiziev is the hardest fight to predict
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
I think what you have to factor in is that men's BJJ is incredibly deep and high-level, while women's BJJ is very shallow and largely sucks. You might be right about Dern being one of the best ever, but is that really saying much?

Polyana Viana is a world champion and she looked like a rank white belt in tapping to a basic, obvious armbar from Macedo.

Stephanie Egger was a ADCC competitor who held her own and even got a takedown against the monstrous Gabi Garcia...only to be completely dominated and exposed by the much smaller Tracy Cortez. Cortez is certainly a solid grappler, but come on, now.

Yeah, there is a significant gap between Maia and RDA. Dern and Jandiroba? I'm not so sure.



Hah. I actually trained at a Machado school in SoCal back in the day!
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Yeah women's grappling (like WMMA) certainly has a much smaller talent pool, no question. But I mean Dern BEAT Gabi while giving away literally 120 lbs. Even within the context of women's grappling and the relative shallow nature of the talent pool, Dern really is special. Fundamentally she's top notch, and she's just far more creative than almost anyone else out there. The one thing that can hold her back is how lazy she's been with training in the past, because like anyone else if she gasses all the skill in the world means jack shit. Maybe the gap between her and Jandiroba isn't as wide as I think it is. If that's so though, I really don't think it's because I'm overrating Dern, it would be due to me underrating Jandiroba. And like I said, in the context of WMMA she IS a good grappler for sure.

Yeah my instructor was friends with the Machados. Carlos came to our gym a few times. It was pretty funny, we had this younger kid who was a beast wrestler who was getting into MMA to make a go of it. Big kid, bigger than me even. Within probably 6-8 months he was giving everyone in our gym hell on the mats, even the black belts. He was just a natural and his wrestling base was so good (He was wrestling at some D 2 school and dominating, not sure why he didn't go D 1, I think he won the state title twice in high school) that once he learned the basics of bjj he was a nightmare. Anyway, he was kinda cocky (not super asshole type, but he knew how good he'd gotten in a short time) and one day Carlos came by to talk with Ron (my instructor). This kid Tyler was there and Ron says "Tyler roll with my buddy Carlos for a bit will ya?" Tyler had no clue who it was, he's like "Yeah cool". Tap. Tap. Tap. Just sick, Carlos is like 43 or 44 or something at the time and way smaller and he is just clowning Tyler. After a bit, where it's obvious Tyler cannot do shit, he's breathing hard and he looks over at Ron (and of course everyone that's there is around the mat watching too) and says "Jesus Christ!" And without missing a beat Ron says "Nope but Carlos probably could hit that same half guard sweep on him too, so don't feel bad." Not sure whatever happened to Tyler, I cornered him in 2 fights. He was 4-0 I think but got a DUI and then some other shit happened about the time I got injured and moved on. Kid did have talent...

Me rolling with Carlos wasn't nearly as funny or interesting. I knew who he was, and knew I was gonna get molested. Still a great experience.
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Happy to bet Oliveira at plus odds, I would never bet a nearly 37 years old Ferguson.
Oliveira will win inside distance
Moicano vs Fiziev is the hardest fight to predict
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I dont know man, Oliveira crumbles like an apple pie everytime someone puts exssesive pressure on him.
Tony should win. Might be 36 years old, however he is conditioned like a 20 year old.

I mean if you confident Oliveira will win then yea pretty good odds atm on him.
 
Yotsuya said:
Maybe I'm fetishising Dern's BJJ win over Gabi Garcia too much, but it seems absurd to me that she would be pinned down for three rounds by an inferior grappler at same weight class. Surely she has strength and technique to scramble and improve position.
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Jandiroba is probably good enough to stall out for a bit, but yeah imo it's more likely Dern sets her up and hits a sweep before too long. Jandiroba does not want Dern on top of her either, we'd likely see the guard passed pretty easily and Dern with mount before too long.
 
StayHumbl3 said:
I dont know man, Oliveira crumbles like an apple pie everytime someone puts exssesive pressure on him.
Tony should win. Might be 36 years old, however he is conditioned like a 20 year old.

I mean if you confident Oliveira will win then yea pretty good odds atm on him.
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He turns 37 in february so basicaly he is 37.
Will be a good fight
 
Internet sometimes is so funny, Tony type of guy jokes ahahaha

Tony is the type of guy to give his children ice baths
Tony is the type of guy to shave his beard with his elbows
Tony is the type of guy to introduce himself as El Cucuy to his girlfriend's parents

 
StayHumbl3 said:
Internet sometimes is so funny, Tony type of guy jokes ahahaha

Tony is the type of guy to give his children ice baths
Tony is the type of guy to shave his beard with his elbows
Tony is the type of guy to introduce himself as El Cucuy to his girlfriend's parents

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Not gonna derail the thread with "Tony is the type of guy" jokes (this is the last I'll post of them I promise), but a couple I liked a lot:

Tony is the type of guy that when he left for college, he told his dad "You're the man of the house now..."

Tony is the type of guy who shows up at the USADA guy's house at 6 am and demands that the guy piss in a cup for him.
 
mkess101 said:
. The one thing that can hold her back is how lazy she's been with training in the past, because like anyone else if she gasses all the skill in the world means jack shit.
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Since Ribas loss she's been in great shape at least regarding her weight. I think that prospect loss gave her discipline and motivation. I'm worried how fast she's burning bridges to coaches and teams though.
 
Didn't notice - Souza now the favorite over Holland.
 
Yotsuya said:
Since Ribas loss she's been in great shape at least regarding her weight. I think that prospect loss gave her discipline and motivation. I'm worried how fast she's burning bridges to coaches and teams though.
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Yeah having a baby and wanting to take selfies on the beach nonstop wasn't amazing for her career, but seems like she's become dedicated again.
 
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