Frustrating card to cap. Decided to pass on McMann-Pena and Calderwood-Eye, although I have a live-bet strategy for the former. I was absolutely certain that Hooker would be value at small minus odds, but watching tape closely made me seriously re-evaluate and now I'm passing, too. However, there is definitely value on the main event;
3u on Poirier at +250
I was so, so salty all night since I missed about a dozen great live-bet spots. I literally wrote to
@BigSteve my plan for Pena-McMann
Figured out the play for Pena-McMann. It's to go for the live-bet.
McMann's wrestling prowess goes down a lot after round 1, and the question is whether she can win either 2 or 3 against Pena, who has better cardio and is much better off her back.
I would love to live-bet Pena at far more significant plus numbers after round 1. Alternatively, if Pena somehow wins round 1, I would be willing to bet her at a wide range of minus numbers, since that signals that McMann has almost no chance of victory.
and STILL didn't pull the trigger at +250 after round 1. I also waffled on Prachnio at +440 against Rountree in round 3 for whatever dumb reason and just barely missed Tsarukyan at -365 early in round 2. Frustrating as hell. I just need to fucking pull the trigger on my live-bets. They're literally almost never bad.
Did live-bet
1.2u on ZZ at -120 after round 1 (loss)
1u on Evloev at -1086 (win)
2u on Calderwood at -446 (win)
Thankfully, my main event play paid off, leaving me +6.84u on the night.
My reads were fairly on-point. I had a lean for Calderwood but thought it might be close. Little did I know what awful physical condition and preparation Eye would be in. And while I initially wanted to join the bandwagon for Hooker, I saw some very concerning things on tape that ALMOST made me bet Chandler, but at least stopped me from playing the Hangman.
No regrets on the small ZZ play. He won round 1, appeared to have the better hands, even got a surprise takedown, and was yet inexplicably the same odds as he was pre-fight.
Anywho, a nice bounceback event. Definitely needed that.