UFC 262 Chandler vs Olivera

[mkess101]

Chandler is in deep shit if you ask me. Oliveira is going to be champ for a long time and may even draw Khabib out of retirement.

Shame it got pushed back a week but Hermannson will facefuck Edmen.

Lots of recency bias against Tony here who has faced two monsters his last fights out. Dariush wouldn’t even be in the same conversation as Ferg a couple years ago. Maybe I’m wrong but I think the dude gets tied up like a pretzel or taken to school

Dariush isn't gonna lose grappling exchanges vs Tony. And again, I'm literally the biggest fan of Tony on this forum maybe. The Tony of 2017 would wear Dariush out and ruin his face.

37 is ANCIENT for a lightweight (not for a LHW or HW, but at the lower weight classes it's just so old). Factor in the way Tony has trained over the years (and it's much of what made him legendary so I'm not knocking it).

I'm sooooo hoping you're right. I just don't see it.

 

[TrueAscension]

I hear y’all I just think Dariush is taking a pretty large step up here and Ferguson is still a very dangerous fighter. Tony’s top 5 time is over but I think he’s got a few dubs in him.

As far as Oliveira being finished a few times, not sure how that matters going into this fight considering weight classes and improvements etc. I think Gaethje might give him some issues if they fight if it stays on the feet but this kids BJJ is maybe the best in the UFC.

 

[mkess101]

I hear y’all I just think Dariush is taking a pretty large step up here and Ferguson is still a very dangerous fighter. Tony’s top 5 time is over but I think he’s got a few dubs in him.

As far as Oliveira being finished a few times, not sure how that matters going into this fight considering weight classes and improvements etc. I think Gaethje might give him some issues if they fight if it stays on the feet but this kids BJJ is maybe the best in the UFC.

Honestly, Dariush might have better bjj than Do Bronx. Charles is more aggressive with subs, but if you put the two in a grappling match I think I'd bet on Beneil maybe.

 

[SolarSeiko]

Charles is on a good streak but he's getting too much credit for beating Lee and a very shop worn, CTE furgeson.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The Jacare vs Muniz fight is fascinating in that if this fight took place after Jacare lost a contested split decision vs 205 Champ Jan Blachowicz. Jacare would be a heavy favorite. I just finished watching tape on Jacare vs Holland. Jacare looked so slow in both the ground & stand up. It's as if age and the damage from the Blachowicz fight caught up to his nervous system. He doesn't have the reflexes or ability to take a punch without his brain shutting off. Go back and watch that fight. Jacare was hurt very badly. He was hurt for quite some time as well. Muniz is nothing special but I can't help wondering if Jacare is going to look even worse than last time.

the problem is i dont know what the holland fight says, its not enough footage, i wish it went on longer. He looked slow but is that enough when Andre is not a good standup fighter. His best bet is a stick and move or wrestle and control his guard. I just dont feel secured with him, he is chinny too. If this was the first fight of the card i'd pick Andre, but its the middle fight, it would burn a lot of wins and end my night short.

 

[Naterade]

Every time I post on here late at night when I’m contemplating bets they end up losing horrendously so let’s see...

Edson @ + is ridiculous. Grapple fucked by Khabib and Lee. Dismantled Hooker, Kod by gaethje. Beat Felder, beat ige. He’s going to kick the shit out of Shane’s legs and avoid anything significant. When you come at Edson with no threat of a takedown and being able to hold him down he fucks everyone up (I consider gaethje on a way higher level than ‘everyone’ and Edson made the mistake of the stand and bang game with him very early on instead of keeping range)

Also think Olivera is going to piece Chandler up on the feet. His boxing was ridiculously sharp vs Tony, if chandler can get consistent takedowns (which I also doubt) he’ll get caught in a transition over 5 rounds.

parlaying both ML heavy ‍

 

[Naterade]

Ferguson looks to have declined a lot in the last 2 years, only way I see him winning is to catch Dariush standing in a wild exchange which could happen as Dariush does recklessly pursue finishes leaving himself open to getting caught. Ferguson just got handled so easily by Olivera so If they go to the ground I think Dariush will control him easily. Ferg still seems to have a good chin though and is probably to tough to tap after that armbar Charles had him in so I figure Dariush will probably decision him.

I can’t in good faith put much stock in Tony’s last 2 fights regarding this fight. He cut weight twice like a momo and olivera is that good. I’ve always backed Beniel and won a lot on him over the years it just depends how this plays out on the feet and Beniel is gassable. Should be a coin flip...all this money coming in on Beniel and now at -185 is major recency bias imo

 

[Jordan3399]

I do not understand how this man is not more of a favorite over a guy whose signature move is to run away and do nothing.

 

[OutRun]

taking a quick break from crypto because everything crashed and I'm broke again. back to the sherdog casino:
Grundy, Chookagian, Shevchenko, Soriano, Aguilar @ 36.20
it's happening guys

 

[MixMartialFarts]

I do not understand how this man is not more of a favorite over a guy whose signature move is to run away and do nothing.

People are hating on this guy and calling him a can because of the guys he fought before he got to the UFC. He fought a lot of LEGIT CANS in his first 7 or 8 fights. But then he got 2 or 3 wins over decent competition so he obviously can fight, look at that wheel kick for proof. They are also acting like he has no chin because he got KO'd by Buckley by shots that would have KO'd any other middleweight, which maybe should be concerning as that fight wasn't that long ago and it was a pretty brutal KO but yea your right Pickett hasn't looked like some killer either. Neither guy is great by UFC standards but the casuals are acting like these guys are bums off the street that they could beat after one week of training. Another fight where the safe bet is to probably just not bet.

 

[Broe.]

Dariush isn't gonna lose grappling exchanges vs Tony. And again, I'm literally the biggest fan of Tony on this forum maybe. The Tony of 2017 would wear Dariush out and ruin his face.

37 is ANCIENT for a lightweight (not for a LHW or HW, but at the lower weight classes it's just so old). Factor in the way Tony has trained over the years (and it's much of what made him legendary so I'm not knocking it).

I'm sooooo hoping you're right. I just don't see it.

don't forget all of his injuries and mental issues, the guy has had many rough years

 

[Broe.]

People are hating on this guy and calling him a can because of the guys he fought before he got to the UFC. He fought a lot of LEGIT CANS in his first 7 or 8 fights. But then he got 2 or 3 wins over decent competition so he obviously can fight, look at that wheel kick for proof. They are also acting like he has no chin because he got KO'd by Buckley by shots that would have KO'd any other middleweight, which maybe should be concerning as that fight wasn't that long ago and it was a pretty brutal KO but yea your right Pickett hasn't looked like some killer either. Neither guy is great by UFC standards but the casuals are acting like these guys are bums off the street that they could beat after one week of training. Another fight where the safe bet is to probably just not bet.

picket lost all 3 rounds vs the slowest fighter I have ever seen.....

 

[Jordan3399]

People are hating on this guy and calling him a can because of the guys he fought before he got to the UFC. He fought a lot of LEGIT CANS in his first 7 or 8 fights. But then he got 2 or 3 wins over decent competition so he obviously can fight, look at that wheel kick for proof. They are also acting like he has no chin because he got KO'd by Buckley by shots that would have KO'd any other middleweight, which maybe should be concerning as that fight wasn't that long ago and it was a pretty brutal KO but yea your right Pickett hasn't looked like some killer either. Neither guy is great by UFC standards but the casuals are acting like these guys are bums off the street that they could beat after one week of training. Another fight where the safe bet is to probably just not bet.

My take on it is Pickett is likely KO or bust and he'll put as little effort as possible into trying to get inside and land a big shot on Wright. Wright is at least willing to fight and like you say is getting undervalued after the Buckley fight.

 

[mkess101]

don't forget all of his injuries and mental issues, the guy has had many rough years

For sure. He's mentally about as strong as anyone I've ever seen inside the cage, but it's probably sped up his decline too. Coming back so soon after major knee surgery. Training the way he does. Having some mental health issues outside the cage. Then look at the fight with Gaethje. He cut weight twice inside 6 weeks just to show he could. Then goes in and takes an insane amount of punishment from arguably the hardest hitter at 155. Eats shots that are putting almost everyone else to sleep in that division. Even at the end when it was stopped, he's eating bombs and shaking his head to clear himself so he can keep fighting, is pissed at the ref for stopping it. That was textbook "too tough for his own good".

But all of that is going to hasten the decline when it comes, and that seems like it's happened. If he proves me wrong and goes in and looks great...I will be even more amazed by him than I was during his prime run. It's hard to see it happening though.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I do not understand how this man is not more of a favorite over a guy whose signature move is to run away and do nothing.

Probably cause he got knocked out by a guy named fluffy

 

[ballsackarino]

I agree with you guys on Wright. Pickett is going to give Wright the kind of fight he wants. Buckley and Hernandez are able to enter the pocket and exploit Wright's poor defence. Those fights were also in the Apex cage, now Wright has more room to move around.

 

[Jordan3399]

Probably cause he got knocked out by a guy named fluffy

Means little when Fluffy would dominate Pickett. Wright getting KOd by Buckley is still more impressive than anything Pickett has managed given he actually tried to fight through adversity. As soon as Pickett faces resistance he runs in fear content with surviving to a dec.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Means little when Fluffy would dominate Pickett. Wright getting KOd by Buckley is still more impressive than anything Pickett has managed given he actually tried to fight through adversity. As soon as Pickett faces resistance he runs in fear content with surviving to a dec.

We aren’t talking who would dominate who. We’re talking about a guy with very little punching power putting the Beverly Hills ninjas lights out. Not a good look. Probably why people aren’t rushing play him as the favorite

 

[Jordan3399]

We aren’t talking who would dominate who. We’re talking about a guy with very little punching power putting the Beverly Hills ninjas lights out. Not a good look. Probably why people aren’t rushing play him as the favorite

I see your point but Hernandez does at least throw punches, plus have a real TD threat, throw in combo, benefitted from the small cage etc. Pickett generally struggles to just throw punches.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

I see your point but Hernandez does at least throw punches, plus have a real TD threat, throw in combo, benefitted from the small cage etc. Pickett generally struggles to just throw punches.

He does. When he turns it on he isn’t that bad. He’s actually got a better chin on him than I thought. Nchukwi caught him with some bombs and he didn’t go away like I thought he would.

He was probably hesitant because of the power or he just didn’t like getting hit. Either way if he actually puts up a fight against wright it’s likely a coin flip

Haven’t taped wright in a while. I remember there being some cardio concerns with him as well. Maybe it was because a lot of his fights didn’t make it out of the first rd.