UFC 264 | Poirier vs McGregor

[Bakayoko]

Too add my 5 cents to Giles-Du Pleises.I don't rate either of them high,doubt both of them will be contenders.But at even odds I'll add something on Giles.I don't rate high Du Plessis previous acomplishment as I don't trust this former KSW guys,it's not a organization with good fighters and competition,they're all juiced to the gills there and rarely any if anyone ever had succes when coming to UFC.Du Plessis is too stiff and predictable for my taste and won a fight he was losing against Perez.Giles is a better all rounder.That being said he has power and Giles can be knocked out,he has holes too,but I think Giles should be a slight favorite,so we have some value on him IMO,just don't risk much.

 

[Shelter]

You didn't quote that poster, instead you said "Giles underwhelmed you in ____ " and then listed fights he all won.

A lot of folks don't post on here but lurk, which is why throwing something like that out there in the betting forum is irresponsible. If you have a specific critique by all means put it out there, but to be frank whether a fighter "underwhelms you" is not something tangible that other folks can look into when deciding whether to part with their cash.

In any other forum, by all means post your opinion, but in the betting forum whether or not a fighter underwhelms us is not relevant if we can't/don't follow that up with legitimate observations. I do think I was accurate when I said your opinion on Giles is motivated by a personal bias such as losing a bet due to him, as your response to me was a personal attack.

This is why nearly every poster that used to post in this forum has left. No one cares about anyones opinion unless there is some insightful rational behind it and the more folks post their opinions the more garbage this "betting thread" becomes.

Or they left because some wannabe forum hall-monitor literally could not stop crying...

Spare me your sad projection on my betting history, the only bet I've ever made on a Giles fight was on him to win vs. Dolidze. If you don't like what I post then either take your weeping to a mod or mute me, I don't care which one.

 

[Devilboy86]

Or they left because some wannabe forum hall-monitor literally could not stop crying...

Spare me your sad projection on my betting history, the only bet I've ever made on a Giles fight was on him to win vs. Dolidze. If you don't like what I post then either take your weeping to a mod or mute me, I don't care which one.

I don't mind your opinions. People think if somebody doesn't have pages of stats to back up their fight pick then it's no good. Some people fall into that analysis paralysis.

 

[Shelter]

I don't mind your opinions. People think if somebody doesn't have pages of stats to back up their fight pick then it's no good. Some people fall into that analysis paralysis.

Thanks, I appreciate it.

I didn't think weighing in on a toss-up fight was going to get people so rustled, acting like I'm trying to convince people to bet their mortgage based on karate website opinions.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

You didn't quote that poster, instead you said "Giles underwhelmed you in ____ " and then listed fights he all won.

A lot of folks don't post on here but lurk, which is why throwing something like that out there in the betting forum is irresponsible. If you have a specific critique by all means put it out there, but to be frank whether a fighter "underwhelms you" is not something tangible that other folks can look into when deciding whether to part with their cash.

In any other forum, by all means post your opinion, but in the betting forum whether or not a fighter underwhelms us is not relevant if we can't/don't follow that up with legitimate observations. I do think I was accurate when I said your opinion on Giles is motivated by a personal bias such as losing a bet due to him, as your response to me was a personal attack.

This is why nearly every poster that used to post in this forum has left. No one cares about anyones opinion unless there is some insightful rational behind it and the more folks post their opinions the more garbage this "betting thread" becomes.

This motherfucker talking about how you have to post responsibly for lurkers LMFAO!

 

[longway]

Surprised no one has mentioned it much, but I think Giles at almost even money is a gimme this week. Thoughts?

It would be if Giles didn't have retard level fight IQ and low volume. I bet him against Doldize and he nearly lost that because he was not throwing any volume in the first round and he decided to go for a TD that nearly cost him the fight in the last round.

He did an interview afterward and said he thought it was the right thing to do or something. Its part of his mental make up, he just doesn't get it, he will not fight to his strengths. Its temping to bet him at these odds, but I just cant do it.

IMO he could win this one easily, but his flaws will make it closer than it should be.

 

[Post 2 Decision]

Tai vs Hardy under 1.5 @ +130 anyone?

Tai last 5 fights hit the under 3 times, once missing by 45 seconds and one decision

Hardy only 1 in last 5 on the under, but I feel when he faces other sluggers they both and up throwing and it ends quicker

I'm not sure I see it, not sure either guy gets KO'd by the other. I see a decision that could be either very boring or very violent lol

 

[Lunchboxcollector]

I'm liking Wonderboy to get it done against Burns. Reasons are:

• I think he is a superior striker and more polished on the feet. His kicks will be key in keeping burns at range. I think he'll work the body early in the fight, enough to slow down Burns who can be pretty 'bullish' coming in trying to close the range.

• Most of his Wonderboys losses have not been clear cut. Yes, Pettis superman punched him but he was winning the fight and that was a bit of a freak punch (first time ever KO'd). His decision losses against Woodley and Till were pretty close and you could make a case for both.

• Burns bjj is highlighted as a big factor which is true but Thompson has good takedown defence (78% TDD) albeit he hasn't been faced many grapplers like Burns. Burns' TD accuracy is 35% and has an average of 2 per fight. Burns will probably go for takedowns and this is a the main risk in this pick but I am counting on Thompsons elusiveness and the TDD freshness in a 3 round fight here.

• I think this could end up being Thompsons last run for the Title. Beat Burns and he will fight the winner of Usman/Covington. Burns has defeated good fighters but Wonderboy is a step above here. I think the fight will stay on the feet and Thompson wins a unanimous decision.

 

[carolinagrapple]

Dear fellow posters,

If you guys want to argue without adding to the discussion, would you mind doing it in direct messages?

Sincerely,
Everyone ever

 

[Kazda1]

It would be if Giles didn't have retard level fight IQ and low volume. I bet him against Doldize and he nearly lost that because he was not throwing any volume in the first round and he decided to go for a TD that nearly cost him the fight in the last round.

He did an interview afterward and said he thought it was the right thing to do or something. Its part of his mental make up, he just doesn't get it, he will not fight to his strengths. Its temping to bet him at these odds, but I just cant do it.

IMO he could win this one easily, but his flaws will make it closer than it should be.

Yeah I agree with the inactivity being a concern. But hey, the line is factoring that in. It'll be close I'm sure. Still like Giles by decision I think

 

[mkess101]

Dear fellow posters,

If you guys want to argue without adding to the discussion, would you mind doing it in direct messages?

Sincerely,
Everyone ever

Sorry. I'm new here. Still learning the ropes.



Kidding. I kept that shit up and derailed the other thread way too long.

Sorry everyone, asshole move by me.

 

[BigSteve]

It would be if Giles didn't have retard level fight IQ and low volume. I bet him against Doldize and he nearly lost that because he was not throwing any volume in the first round and he decided to go for a TD that nearly cost him the fight in the last round.

He did an interview afterward and said he thought it was the right thing to do or something. Its part of his mental make up, he just doesn't get it, he will not fight to his strengths. Its temping to bet him at these odds, but I just cant do it.

IMO he could win this one easily, but his flaws will make it closer than it should be.

Man I think I'm the only one in the betting universe on Du Plessis. I got him at dog odds. Giles is the biggest fade ever. He stares and has low output. Does as much as he can to lose fights he is winning. Dosent train full-time. Beat Lewis who is a flake, barely beat Dolidze who is one guy with a worse IQ than him, barely beat Krause on a few hour's notice. Finished by GM3 and Cummings of all people. Slows down in the third. Dosen't check leg kicks which Du Plessis is very active with in both stances.

I am more impressed with Du Plessis' 2 fights against Soldic than anything Giles has achieved. Even KOing an iron chinned Maluko. I honestly think Giles would go to a split with Maluko, or would be winning until doing something stupid and getting caught in a sub. I also think that fight is why everyone is picking Giles. He clearly had massive jitters, and still found a KO. Nobody gives Maluko credit for looking good in there, he was very loose and relaxed. Du Plessis always has that finishing power and a good guillotine if he is losing. Wouldnt put it past Giles to shoot right into it.

Don't see Du Plessis fighting with as many jitters as hit debut. He is only 27 and has a way bigger upside in my opinion

 

[rev0lver]

I'm just really excited to watch Price-Pereira but I don't get how people can be so confident on Pereira here. I think he's fundamentally the better fighter and he generally fought a smart fight against Khaos. But you know he's gonna try some stupid shit on a big stage against a guy who loves fun fights, and Price just has a way of finding finishes.

 

[DogsAndKisses]

I'm just really excited to watch Price-Pereira but I don't get how people can be so confident on Pereira here. I think he's fundamentally the better fighter and he generally fought a smart fight against Khaos. But you know he's gonna try some stupid shit on a big stage against a guy who loves fun fights, and Price just has a way of finding finishes.

Disagree. He hasn't fought silly in any of his past 3 since losing to Connelly. Didn't lose discipline at all against bum Diego, no reason to think hes all of a sudden gonna go back to being wild vs an actually dangerous guy

 

[Bakayoko]

I think Hardy's got Tuivasa until he runs out of gas.Hardy now with live bet on Tai after 1 or 2 is simple but the best way to go.

 

[Kazda1]

Disagree. He hasn't fought silly in any of his past 3 since losing to Connelly. Didn't lose discipline at all against bum Diego, no reason to think hes all of a sudden gonna go back to being wild vs an actually dangerous guy

Both guys are really hittable but Pereira looks to have a much better chin. I think Pereira sparks Price to be honest.

 

[HockeyBjj]

Weirdly Jennifer Maia is -200, but her by decision is +110

other than armbar on JoJo calderwood, Maia has gone to decision in every fight (9 fights!) since 2015 when she fought in some organization called Samurai FC

Jessica Eye got head kick KOed by Schvechenko, and other than that 10! Decisions since 2014, UFC Werdum be Hunt

yet you can get the -200 favorite for this fight by decision at (slight) +odds. -275 decision might even be worth it as a safe? Bet if you’re into those types of returns

 

[DogsAndKisses]

Both guys are really hittable but Pereira looks to have a much better chin. I think Pereira sparks Price to be honest.

I think Pereira is hittable when you're able to move forward with your punches. Its how Khaos was mainly successful. But his footwork and that front kick hes thrown a lot in the past 3 really help him dictate pace and range.

This is why I favor him over Price even though I don't think i'll make a bet on it unless I get Michel -140ish. Price really isn't very good outside of his right hand use and he definitely hasn't ever shown the ability to move forward while punching. He likes to plant his feet when he throws. Doesn't help this is literally the first time Price is fighting someone who does actively move their feet rather than keep a more planted stance.

 

[theTKDguy]

Big on FDGTD in the ME. - 325 was good odds imho, it should cash. Have Pereira, u1.5 in the omalley fight, u2.5 for Topuria vs BJJ guy and maia in a small fun parlay and nothing more, i think we'll have good lb opportunities.

 

[rev0lver]

Disagree. He hasn't fought silly in any of his past 3 since losing to Connelly. Didn't lose discipline at all against bum Diego, no reason to think hes all of a sudden gonna go back to being wild vs an actually dangerous guy

He definitely has fought disciplined but Price has a tendency to draw people into something wild. Plus Peirera's last 2 fights were at the Apex. He built his career on doing capoeira stuff and being a crowd favorite. Fighting in front of a full crowd on a Conor card, it's hard for me to picture the same conservativeness in this kind of matchup when it's a gimme for FOTN or a finish bonus