Luque has won me a lot of money over his UFC tenure, whether it's coming from betting on him, or betting against him(against WB, didn't bet when he fought Edwards).
I think Chiesa is just going to be too much for him to handle though. We saw Luque in the past get taken down and controlled by Leon, granted, that was a long time ago and he's improved. But Chiesa has shown more improvements over the years than Luque has.
This is the same Luque that was losing to Barbarena before finishing him in the 3rd. The same Luque who barely won a split decision against Perry.
Even Randy Brown took him down a few times. And he slows down in every 3rd round.
Chiesa will slow down as well, but we saw Chiesa look like he was completely gassed and still take down and control a better grappler in Magny over 25 minutes.
I think Luque is just getting way too much love for beating the ghost of Woodley in the fashion in which he did. Chiesa @ +130 last week was the play, I'd still play him at the current odds, though. And his decision line being +3xx is insane. Chiesa said himself that a win is more than enough, when he was asked if he thinks he needs a finish.
I'm in the minority on Munoz as well.
I was all over Aldo vs Vera. Aldo tends to win almost every first round he's in. He beat Yan in r1, Vera, and Moraes.
In round 2 versus Vera, Vera worked his way back into the fight, and won round 2 after figuring out Vera. However, for the first time in a long time, he relied on his grappling. He took Vera's back at the beginning of the third round, and the rest is history, he won 2-1. Vera is a fringe top 15 fighter(who I have a lot of respect for) but Aldo seems to be on a downward trend.
He looked tired af in round 3 versus Vera, but managed to secure the victory with his BJJ.
Munhoz has an iron chin, better grappling than Vera(I don't think there will be any grappling in this fight though). Aldo doesn't throw nearly as many leg kicks as he used to either, I would 100% take a side bet for up to $500 on who throws more leg kicks in this fight -- Munhoz or Aldo.
Munhoz will probably lose round 1, and pick up the pace in rd2/rd3 en route to a decision win. He'll be more active, throw more shots, and be able to absorb the strikes thrown at him. If this fight is finished though, I see Munhoz getting it, not Aldo.
Aldo has been in some fucking wars man, and has been around the game for a long time. They're the same age, but Munhoz has so much more left in terms of mileage than Aldo does.
Gane/Lewis
Born and raised in Houston, Derrick Lewis has been one of my favorite fighters to watch in UFC history. He walks out to "Tops Drop" by Fat Pat, a song I grew up to, and is your typical black guy from Houston. I grew up with dozens of people just like him, and they're just real down to earth people that like to smoke weed, BBQ, and will represent Houston until their death.
But Derrick Lewis isn't winning this fight unfortunately, which sucks because all the people I know are going to see him win, and legitimately think he has a huge shot.
If you look back at Lewis's resume, let's be real, he should've lost to Volkov. Vokov got complacent with 15 seconds left, and paid the price(I was on Lewis in this fight, watching it in Vegas -- it was on the Khabib/Conor card).
I was initially on Latifi versus Derrick, and then switched sides to Lewis. I think Lewis was -185, as it was Latifi's first fight @ HW. I'm gonna be honest, at the end of that fight, I thought Derrick lost. He landed I think FIVE shots that entire fight and was controlled for a lot of it.
Blaydes, can't take that win away from him. He lost round 1 and was out struck, but was patiently waiting for that uppercut and it paid off. Great win for him, best of his career by far imo.
But looking back even further, Lewis gets hurt a fucking lot, and yeah he's doing it to play possum a bit sometimes, but he legitimately gets damaged to the body/legs way too much. Browne almost finished him with a body kick, and then Lewis famously came back, once again, and took Browne's soul.
JDS pieced him up relatively easy, and this was JDS at the tail end of his career. I don't think he won a fight in the UFC after beating Derrick.
Gane is getting too much shit for being a decision fighter, when there's no fucking way he wins this by decision. Derrick Lewis isn't the type of fighter that wants to be in the cage for 25 minutes.
I've bet against Gane a lot in the past, but he's grown on me, and he's been growing tremendously as an athlete. His fight IQ is extremely high, and he'll start off slow, and find opportunities to slow Lewis down with leg kicks, body kicks, and maybe even takedowns. Blaydes wasn't able to take him down because that's the sole thing Derrick was focused on. With Gane, his striking will present and opportunity for the takedowns if he wants them.
I'm big on Gane ITD +115, Gane sub +1200, and Gane RNC +8000. I'm actually not playing Gane straight, as I'm that confident in the fact that he'll get the finish here.
