UFC 266: Volkanovski vs Ortega Prelims
Morales vs Pearce
Morales answers the question of what a Sanford MMA fighter looks like when they don’t wrestle. Plodding, somewhat powerful, rote counterstriker. Outside of Omar’s constant soft naked leg kicks, he mostly throws heat but does little to press the action. Instead he lulls the opposite fighter into a slow paced kickboxing match. I dislike fighters of this mold because they tend to have really close fights, habitually. It’s difficult to win rounds at the UFC level without either grappling or activity, especially against fighters that’ll bring volume.
Inversely I Love betting on fighters like Pearce. All action, good cardio and big on mixing striking with grappling. These are the kind of fighters that go out there for your money. I think what is especially helpful is Morales’s naked kicks giving Pearce ample opportunities to convert one into a takedown. Pearce is very hittable and could definitely walk into some hot shit here on the counter but I think it’s more likely that he does enough to win 2 out of 3 rounds. Pearce is the pick.
Semelsberger vs Sano
Guy hasn’t fought in like 5 years. Big pass.
Maximov vs Brundage
Two grapplers here, though I think Maximov accepts that title significantly more than Brundage. Maximov is coming out to wrestle, scramble, snatch a sub and turn this into a combat jiujitsu match as fast as possible. If he gets stuffed, he’s chain wrestling and if it hits the mat he’s willing to take risks for the finish. We’ve seen him outgrapple significantly larger fighters, which is always impressive and he regularly competes in SUG. He operates almost entirely out of single leg chains and is a little too loose in top position but manages to continually float around, though he is apt to be reversed. Even then, the kid is an absolute grinder and immediately gets back on the reshot or scramble for position.
Brundage has a little bit more striker in him but we shouldn’t overstate what that is. He’s very willing to lunge, blindly flurry, keep his hands low with no head movement and is pretty stiff on the feet. If it was just a means to an end in implementing his power wrestling game, I’d be more okay with it but if he’s looking to kickbox, he’s gonna have problems at this level. He’s opposite from Maximov in that he’s a straight forward blast double guy with heavy pressure and is looking to deal damage. I don’t think he wants to hang with Maximov in scrambles and I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he opted to just sprawl and brawl in this matchup.
This could go a few ways as I don’t think either of these fighters are that good, though I think Maximov has more potential currently based on his skillset and gameplan. We might see Brundage take a leap forward striking and continually stuff Maximov while teeing him up. We could see Brundage come out and wrestle here and Maximov might BJJ it up off his back too long, giving up rounds. Finally, we could see Maximov implement his chain wrestling gameplan and slowly attrition Brundage into dust, after having a close first round.
I think the 3rd route is most likely based on Brundage’s recent weak striking showings, suspect cardio and Maximov’s absolute insistence that this be a grappling affair. While Brundage could just outwrestle him here, I don’t see it happening with the pace and style gap. It’s just very hard to hold down guys like Maximov that continually seek to scramble. At some point or another Brundage is getting put on his back, while he could certainly get up, it’s gonna drain his cardio and that’s not what you want against a cardio freak like Maximov. Maximov is the pick.
Medic vs Turner
Michael Bisping once called Jalin Turner a skilled, technical, kickboxer. I gotta disagree with him there. Jalin does his absolute best work in the clinch, where he really leverages his height well. Nasty cutting elbows, rising knees and powerful frames with surprisingly sharp pocket pivots. You don’t see pivots that often at that height and even though they’re not used often, it’s still pretty fantastic that he has it. I’m also impressed by how his striking has come along. He went from a pawing, lazy striker that would feint into the clinch into a powerful, if not rote kickboxing front runner. He’s got excellent speed and power, good straight punches and an okay kicking game. I do think his feet can get really lazy though, especially when he’s really looking to box. His defense leaves a lot to be desired as well and depends on his reflexes, which is why he’s so available to the body and legs. He has some moments of appearing very slick but inversely when pressed or tired we can see his game start to fall apart and devolve into single shots and try to out-athlete the other fighter.
Medic is genuinely a very skilled, technical, kickboxer. His sense of timing and range is impeccable and his defense consists of footwork, head movement, counter traps and feints. He really specializes in range probing and waiting for opportunities to snipe with his effortless power. Most impressive to me is his ability to chain a variety of strikes together with power, speed and efficiency. I couldn’t tell you what his game looks like late as none of his fights go late. What I can tell you is that he can sees fights very well from moment to moment and knows when to disengage and when to strike, which is something very rare in this sport.
I think Turners got a tough road here that’s only gonna get harder as the fight goes on. He’s the better athlete but I don’t think it’s by much. Both fighters have easy power and speed, though Jalin is definitely faster, but Medic has the much more developed striking game. What really hurts Turner here is his footwork and lack of technical defense. Medic will have opportunities to tag his body and legs all day while Turner is likely to struggle enforcing his inside game. I don’t think Turner has the ability to take this to the floor either. His best chance is an early finish with a powerful straight but that’s gonna be very hard to come by and only get more difficult with time. While I don’t know Uros’s cardio, I do know Turner’s and expect him to look tired late. Medic very well could look tired then as well but even if that ends up being the case, the more technical fighter will benefit from dual fatigue. Medic is the pick.
Modafferi vs Santos
Could Roxanne feasibly win this fight? If she fought the very best fight of her life. Do I expect her to win this fight? Not even a little. She’s got wonky movement and some opportunistic takedowns but outside of that, there’s nothing. Her strikes carry zero power, she doesn’t threaten on the ground and she’s at a massive athletic disadvantage. I don’t see her being able to floor Santos and if she can’t, she’s gonna get bullied on the feet. This is a really rough fight to give Roxanne as she breaks the WMMA record for fights. It’ll be a little competitive as long as Roxanne can sneak around and throw arm punches but at some point Santos is gonna wrangle her. Santos is the pick.
Abdurakhimov vs Daukaus
Don’t like the level of recent tape available for this one, especially at this line with 2 low level heavyweights. Pass.
Hooker vs Haqparast
Boxer vs kickboxer matchup and one I have the kickboxer coming out on top. Hooker, for all the grief his defense gets, really isn’t terrible defensively. He more so is just terrible at getting his hands up and can be sucked in to boxing range where his momentum gets caught forward more often than it should. When he’s fighting in balance, he has very slick head movement and is incredibly adapt at understanding range and sliding just outside of strikes. This is emphasized by his use of range weapons and typically having a reach advantage. He also gives his opponents a ton to think about with very active feinting and striking at all levels. He’s just a hard kickboxing fight for the most part. He circles out well, has a versatile jab that he uses purposefully, builds his reads as a fight goes on, hits hard and understands the advantages his frame provides in the clinch. While he isn’t what I would call an adapt clinch fighter, he knows how to use it opportunistically, snatching a quick plum and driving a shot or two before framing off and sliding out. He’s a striker that you’re gonna need some big advantages somewhere to decisively beat.
I don’t think Haq has those advantages. A high guard boxer looking optimally to sprawl and swarm fighters with his blinding speed. He has a pretty disgusting uppercut and a decent jab but is wholly a boxer, something that is very difficult to accomplish in the modern UFC. Furthermore outside of his uppercut, his power shots are lunging and sloppy. Integrated into a swarmer style that is effective when he can really get in an opponent's teeth, but will struggle with how still his head is during them against more adept strikers. Haq defensively, when not in wild swinging mode, is very solid. He has nice lateral head movement, keeps a tight guard and returns fire to dissuade the opponents offense. He can’t mix the two though and is being offensive or defensive with little craft marrying the two.
Ultimately I think Haq is just out of his depth in this fight. Many of his tools such as his heavy lead leg stance, his directional slips and his high guard are gonna act as weaknesses in this matchup. The high guard especially is gonna leave his body and legs vulnerable and act as a tell when he wants to resume offense, leaving him open to Hooker’s counters. As well, his lateral shifts and dips could easily lead him into Hookers patented rising knee or a head kick. Most damning though is simply the lack of variety he’s bringing to the table. Hooker doesn’t have to worry about effective kicking or takedowns on top of Haq lacking the footwork to get in close without exploding. While Hooker could be caught flat footed in an exchange and floored, I just don’t personally see it. I think Hooker tee’s him up at range and maybe eats a couple power shots on the way to a dominant win. Hooker is the pick.
Marlon vs Dvalishvilli
Do you think Marlon KO’s Merab? It’s definitely possible. Merab isn’t particularly defensively sound and can certainly be timed coming in. Marlon hits hard, fast and thrives as an opportunistic sniper. He isn’t exactly a round winner with a volume that fluctuates though and his gast tank can be taxed by him throwing every shot with fight ending purpose. I personally don’t like playing fighters that I think only have a KO chance. I also don’t think his upright stance or loaded up bombs bode well for staying on the feet. While he could potentially get up a couple of times, I have to feel like Merab will just keeping coming and coming. Maybe Marlon steals the first or even gets the KO, but I think Merab by wrestlefuck attrition is the most likely outcome. Merab is the pick.