UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier

So Neal admitted drinking during the camp but said it was one night thing idk what to think about it but it's hard to back him now.
 
Danis_champ said:
So Neal admitted drinking during the camp but said it was one night thing idk what to think about it but it's hard to back him now.
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Wasn’t it a misdemeanor DUI? From what I understand, he probably just had a couple beers with family.
 
guesswhoseback said:
Hey man and you mentioned Schevenko If nunes and Schevenko were to fight again who do u think would take the fight? and what would u assume the odds would be?
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Nunes would probably be around -150 I'd guess? And honestly, it really depends on what weight the fight happens at. Shev is a natural 125'er that was so good she was arguably the best 135'er on the planet when they didn't have a 125 lb division. (I'd argue that the second fight with Nunes was about dead even, you could flip a coin on who should have gotten the decision). Nunes is naturally much bigger, doubtful she could ever make 125 (and would she be so depleted if she did that she wouldn't be nearly the same fighter). So we're assuming the fight is at 135 here...

I'd bet Shev at dog odds for sure. Like I said, there's an argument she won the last fight. She's improved her grappling a ton, she still seems to be in her physical prime. Nunes hasn't looked to slow down either obviously. I think the fight would once again be a coin toss, but given that Nunes would almost surely be favored I think Shev would absolutely be the play.
 
Danis_champ said:
So Neal admitted drinking during the camp but said it was one night thing idk what to think about it but it's hard to back him now.
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Agreed. Sometimes that sort of stuff (outside the cage) is just fuel for the fighter, and they go out and fight like it's their last fight on earth. Other times it's a sign that shit ain't quite right behind the scenes and everything is gonna come crumbling down soon.
EDIT: MMA is already unpredictable, I don't need additional unpredictable factors like that haha.
I'd recommend being cautious and finding a more reliable prop bet, or live betting once you see how they are performing.
 
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Nunes at -1000 now
 
Jonathan Utah said:
How many bets are out there on Peña?
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Seems like a bet on Pena is basically betting on a freak injury from Nunes or something like what almost cost Jon Jones his fight vs Chael. Otherwise, how the hell does Pena win? And you're getting what, +650 at best? Nah, waste of $ imo. I think at my most generous I'd still give Pena less than a 10% chance of winning.
 
mkess101 said:
Seems like a bet on Pena is basically betting on a freak injury from Nunes or something like what almost cost Jon Jones his fight vs Chael. Otherwise, how the hell does Pena win? And you're getting what, +650 at best? Nah, waste of $ imo. I think at my most generous I'd still give Pena less than a 10% chance of winning.
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I agree 100%. I’m just wondering how many people are doing something so crazy.
 
She's had like a 6 year run.
There's a chance that time and over confidence may catch up with her.
I don't think it will be this weekend, but maybe.
 
Pena has no chance. People say her grappling will give June's problems but Pena gets subbed by strikers.
 
Last time Nunes lost like 8 years ago was due to getting punched out in the mount by opponent that Pena beat. Also Pena gets counter-submitted from wrestling, something Nunes doesnt do.
Not that it matters too much in the end just saying
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Respect to DP, but he's an action fighter/brawler, not the type who's gonna elude every Olive's TD attempt. He's not gonna elude strikes either. Yes, have a refined striking mechanics, but is too aggressive and wild with his offense, still. Also DP's fighting on instinct a lot, not the guy who's methodically gonna take away your weapons and build on reads round after round. He's just a finisher at his core.

Dustin gives away space way too easily. Allows the opponent to dictate both pace and the direction of the fight (kinda important parts of the fight!). Poirier often bends at the waist very deep and goes over his feet and it's a disaster waiting to happen vs. guy like Charles, who throws a lot of knees and goes for the body (which as a bonus circumvert Poirier's weird shell guard).
My pick is Charles Oliveira. Last time I doubted him was in his rematch with Miller. I wasn't quite sure he's changed his style and if the improvements were lasting. But he did. I picked him in every single fight after the Miller rematch.
He's changed, he's just that good and still improving. He kept all the good things about his fight game from his old days and took away the liabilities and things that doesn't work.
charles-oliveira.gif
 
mkess101 said:
Seems like a bet on Pena is basically betting on a freak injury from Nunes or something like what almost cost Jon Jones his fight vs Chael. Otherwise, how the hell does Pena win? And you're getting what, +650 at best? Nah, waste of $ imo. I think at my most generous I'd still give Pena less than a 10% chance of winning.
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not likely but maybe a vintage Nunez that gasses if she´s forced to grapple for extended period of time
 
rille31 said:
not likely but maybe a vintage Nunez that gasses if she´s forced to grapple for extended period of time
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The only realistic way is for Nunes to punch herself out à la Leonardo Santos. (and we need the right ref who's not gonna stop the fight!) But this would be a very rookie mistake, one that I really don't expect from her at this stage of her career. Gassing out from grappling for an extended period of time, yeah maybe there's a chance. But the thing is Peña is 1. bruteforcing her grappling that it often tires herself more than the opponent, 2. her submission awareness is kinda shit and Nunes can and probably will going to take advantage of that.
I dunno... this is one of those fights where the big favourite has to either suffer a freak injury, or do multiple things wrong to lose. Something big needs to happen for Peña to win.
 
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