UFC 277: Peña vs. Nunes 2

[benebox]

I think Amanda will win and make it look easy this time round. She was losing because she fought like an idiot and had no answer for the dip jab. It would be crazy if she isn't fainting, going for quick TDs and spamming the left high kick to counter that. Its WMMA so who knows, I just bet the sub at +400 as it was the only prob I saw any value, I think Amanda will be patient but go grappling heavy.

 

[PuertoRican]

I think Amanda will win and make it look easy this time round. She was losing because she fought like an idiot and had no answer for the dip jab. It would be crazy if she isn't fainting, going for quick TDs and spamming the left high kick to counter that. Its WMMA so who knows, I just bet the sub at +400 as it was the only prob I saw any value, I think Amanda will be patient but go grappling heavy.

I think Amanda will be patient, but not use a lot of offensive grappling, as she's facing a grappler who might end up on her back with a big girl on top of her in R1, but then Julianna will expect TDs after that and if she stuffs a TD, Amanda will get discouraged, and she also has her cardio to worry about.

I actually don't see how it's possible for Amanda to use a grapple-heavy strategy against Julianna. I think Amanda will attempt her strategy against Shevchenko in their second fight, but not be successful with it because of Julianna's fighting style and that her coach will let her know right away that she's trying to fight on the outside and conserve her energy.

I want Amanda to grapple though, as it will slow down the fight and help my O2.5 rounds.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Did you not count 2-3 shots that either had Moreno wobbled or near wobbled last fight? There was multiple times where Kai just barely missed with a ton of heat.

I've watched their first fight back a few times now and I don't think Kai landed anything that actually hurt Moreno. I know the commentary team stated Kai hurt Moreno during the first round but if you slow the sequence down none of the punches appeared to land clean and most didn't land at all. I believe it was more-so bad body language from Moreno than being hurt.

What a spaz, I just watched it too. Aside from him just spamming blatant shots to the back of the head at the end (which weren't even necessary if he took his time and threw looping punches to the side of the head instead)...he's pretty freaking bad. Norman looks to be a LHW first of all, and still easily took Hamdy down on the first attempt. Hamdy then immediately goes for the guillotine but has zero clue that he needs to secure his guard and allows Norman to jump to the side instantly, taking any threat of the guillotine away. Norman is obviously very green too, gets to aggressive and gives up position. But the key is that it wasn't any actual technique by Hamdy that allowed him to reverse, he was just a lot bigger and stronger than the LHW he was fighting. If Mayes gets him on his back, he's not just gonna use brute strength to push him off like that, no chance.

Even the punch that sort of rocked Norman was just Norman being reckless and throwing a sort of pseudo-superman punch where he kind of led with his face and Hamdy just popped him with a quick straight shot.

IDK what to take away from that fight other than that if that's the best Hamdy there is, Mayes **should** handle him pretty easily. But of course...the normal "it's HW so who the hell knows" disclaimer applies I guess.

The Norman fight is an amateur fight and while its fine to watch those to gauge the skillset of fighters they shouldn't be taken as indicative of how a fighter will perform during professional bouts.

Hamdy nearly went three full rounds with Dustin Clements, an experienced fighter, in his professional debut. Thats a good fight to watch if you want to gauge Hamdy's current skillset rather than him bulldozing winless opponents in his other 2 bouts.

I don't think you are wrong though in taking away from Hamdy's fights that he is used to imposing himself on smaller opponents and winning through sheer physicality. That likely isn't going to be an option against an opponent who is quite a bit bigger than him.

Hamdy may have weighed in 9.5 pounds heavier than Mayes but that is excess weight (fat) and not going to help him. Mayes is too big and strong to be kept down by anything other than superior technique.

Why is everyone on Kim? Didn't she lose 3 straight?

She got robbed, according to some, in her last fight against Cachoeira. Kim is likely going to throw a ton of volume and headhunt, as she usually does, but there doesn't seem to be power in anything she throws and competent judges will take notice of this.

Edwards appears to hit quite hard, I have heard her previous opponents say this in interviews, so I don't foresee the volume of Kim alone being enough.

 

[benebox]

I think Amanda will be patient, but not use a lot of offensive grappling, as she's facing a grappler who might end up on her back with a big girl on top of her in R1, but then Julianna will expect TDs after that and if she stuffs a TD, Amanda will get discouraged, and she also has her cardio to worry about.

I actually don't see how it's possible for Amanda to use a grapple-heavy strategy against Julianna. I think Amanda will attempt her strategy against Shevchenko in their second fight, but not be successful with it because of Julianna's fighting style and that her coach will let her know right away that she's trying to fight on the outside and conserve her energy.

I want Amanda to grapple though, as it will slow down the fight and help my O2.5 rounds.

I agree with the Shev 2 strategy. However as long as she doesn't walk into every single jab this time I think she will out class Peña on the feet and get confidence as the fight progresses. I was envisioning more in the lines of Peña making it a dog fight and staying her face, possibly forcing the grappling exchanges which as long as Nuñes isn't completely gassed I think she will also get the better off.

Now that you mention it, I do like the over 2.5.

 

[mkess101]

I've watched their first fight back a few times now and I don't think Kai landed anything that actually hurt Moreno. I know the commentary team stated Kai hurt Moreno during the first round but if you slow the sequence down none of the punches appeared to land clean and most didn't land at all. I believe it was more-so bad body language from Moreno than being hurt.



The Norman fight is an amateur fight and while its fine to watch those to gauge the skillset of fighters they shouldn't be taken as indicative of how a fighter will perform during professional bouts.

Hamdy nearly went three full rounds with Dustin Clements, an experienced fighter, in his professional debut. Thats a good fight to watch if you want to gauge Hamdy's current skillset rather than him bulldozing winless opponents in his other 2 bouts.

I don't think you are wrong though in taking away from Hamdy's fights that he is used to imposing himself on smaller opponents and winning through sheer physicality. That likely isn't going to be an option against an opponent who is quite a bit bigger than him.

Hamdy may have weighed in 9.5 pounds heavier than Mayes but that is excess weight (fat) and not going to help him. Mayes is too big and strong to be kept down by anything other than superior technique.





She got robbed, according to some, in her last fight against Cachoeira. Kim is likely going to throw a ton of volume and headhunt, as she usually does, but there doesn't seem to be power in anything she throws and competent judges will take notice of this.

Edwards appears to hit quite hard, I have heard her previous opponents say this in interviews, so I don't foresee the volume of Kim alone being enough.

It looks like the fight with Clements was Hamdy's 3rd pro fight, not his debut? At least according to fightfinder. His first two pro fights were early stoppages vs guys also making their debut (who haven't fought again aside from the first guy fighting Hamdy a second time and getting stomped again LOL). I'll watch the Clements fight, but at first glance Clements' resume' looks MILES below UFC level right? That fight was literally this year, so if that's the best we can say about Hamdy (that he got a 3rd round stoppage over a guy who'd been finished in 2 of his previous 3 fights by guys nobody has heard of for the most part)...probably doesn't bode well.

Edit: Can't seem to find Hamdy vs Clement. Read a summary that said Hamdy was getting the worst of it standing (had his moments but Clement was landing more) but Hamdy used his wrestling a lot and was ahead on the cards before Clement's leg injury. Not sure what to take from that...I would be pretty surprised if Hamdy is able to impose his wrestling on the much bigger Mayes based on the limited tape I've seen. But I've been wrong before. And again, it's HW. One big shot (even if it's a wild haymaker thrown with little skill) so often ends fights that I wouldn't recommend anyone go nuts on betting Hayes. But his odds do warrant a play imo.

Edit again: Those first two fights were maybe not MMA? Bareknuckle boxing matches? Hell IDK haha...but I don't think he's very impressive at all. I think the odds are partly due to his 5-0 record which may not actually even all be MMA fights and is against guys that Mayes could possibly beat while blindfolded.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

It looks like the fight with Clements was Hamdy's 3rd pro fight, not his debut? At least according to fightfinder. His first two pro fights were early stoppages vs guys also making their debut (who haven't fought again aside from the first guy fighting Hamdy a second time and getting stomped again LOL). I'll watch the Clements fight, but at first glance Clements' resume' looks MILES below UFC level right? That fight was literally this year, so if that's the best we can say about Hamdy (that he got a 3rd round stoppage over a guy who'd been finished in 2 of his previous 3 fights by guys nobody has heard of for the most part)...probably doesn't bode well.

Edit: Can't seem to find Hamdy vs Clement. Read a summary that said Hamdy was getting the worst of it standing (had his moments but Clement was landing more) but Hamdy used his wrestling a lot and was ahead on the cards before Clement's leg injury. Not sure what to take from that...I would be pretty surprised if Hamdy is able to impose his wrestling on the much bigger Mayes based on the limited tape I've seen. But I've been wrong before. And again, it's HW. One big shot (even if it's a wild haymaker thrown with little skill) so often ends fights that I wouldn't recommend anyone go nuts on betting Hayes. But his odds do warrant a play imo.

Edit again: Those first two fights were maybe not MMA? Bareknuckle boxing matches? Hell IDK haha...but I don't think he's very impressive at all. I think the odds are partly due to his 5-0 record which may not actually even all be MMA fights and is against guys that Mayes could possibly beat while blindfolded.

I probably wasn't clear enough. I favor Mayes (by a wide margin) and think he is going to be way too big for Hamdy. The Clements fight is on UFC Fight Pass and it was Hamdy's MMA debut. Clements is the only opponent Hamdy has faced as a professional, in my opinion, who showed up with the intention of winning. That fight mostly played out on the ground, though we got to see a bit of striking as well, it was a good fight to gauge Hamdy's overall skillset. The prior two fights Hamdy had were "Bareknuckle MMA", meaning neither fighter was wearing gloves, and thus totally irrelevant to his record as a mixed martial artist. He is 3-0 not 5-0 as the UFC has been claiming.

I wouldn't label Mayes a lock to win, because we have seen him wilt in the face of adversity before to grapplers (in my opinion), but unless Hamdy takes Mayes down and smashes him quickly in the first round I think we will see Mayes stop Hamdy.

Mayes is not Harry Hunsucker or Josh Parisian. The guy is a great boxer, very athletic, and has a developing ground game that he showed off in his last fight. I would favor Mayes over every unranked HW, except Juan Espino & Jailton Almeida, but would favor him over Arlovski.

 

[rille31]

Hamdy weighed in 10 pounds heavier then Mayes, sure he`s flabby but its not like Mayes has a huge size advantage

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Probably gonna be justifiably crucified for this, but anyone think there might be value on Fugitt at +500?

There's VERY little footage of him out there (and the stuff pre-2022 probably isn't super relevant given how long ago it was), but after a high-kick spam v Renfro led to a knockdown punch, he finished the job remarkably ACCURATELY, meaning that if he DOES get his win condition of a knockdown, he won't fumble the bag like Justin Jaynes v Gavin Tucker

Morales also got knocked down REALLY EARLY by Trevin Giles, so his chin is hardly impenetrable, and he's kind of manic anyway so it's not like he can't be hit

Obviously Morales SHOULD be favoured - His grappling is clearly high quality and his striking at least appears technical - But it seems like Fugitt has greater than a 17% chance to pull off the upset

I'm not sure on Fugitt. Renfro is a bit of a glass cannon. Same thing happened with Mike Malott when he fought him, so I'm not sure how powerful he really is.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I've watched their first fight back a few times now and I don't think Kai landed anything that actually hurt Moreno. I know the commentary team stated Kai hurt Moreno during the first round but if you slow the sequence down none of the punches appeared to land clean and most didn't land at all. I believe it was more-so bad body language from Moreno than being hurt.



The Norman fight is an amateur fight and while its fine to watch those to gauge the skillset of fighters they shouldn't be taken as indicative of how a fighter will perform during professional bouts.

Hamdy nearly went three full rounds with Dustin Clements, an experienced fighter, in his professional debut. Thats a good fight to watch if you want to gauge Hamdy's current skillset rather than him bulldozing winless opponents in his other 2 bouts.

I don't think you are wrong though in taking away from Hamdy's fights that he is used to imposing himself on smaller opponents and winning through sheer physicality. That likely isn't going to be an option against an opponent who is quite a bit bigger than him.

Hamdy may have weighed in 9.5 pounds heavier than Mayes but that is excess weight (fat) and not going to help him. Mayes is too big and strong to be kept down by anything other than superior technique.




She got robbed, according to some, in her last fight against Cachoeira. Kim is likely going to throw a ton of volume and headhunt, as she usually does, but there doesn't seem to be power in anything she throws and competent judges will take notice of this.

Edwards appears to hit quite hard, I have heard her previous opponents say this in interviews, so I don't foresee the volume of Kim alone being enough.

Dustin Clements is absolute dogshit (no offence to Dustin if you're reading this).

 

[mkess101]

Hamdy weighed in 10 pounds heavier then Mayes, sure he`s flabby but its not like Mayes has a huge size advantage

Size as in he's way longer and has a huge reach advantage though. Hamdy weighs more but it's not really functional weight that's gonna help him imo. If he gets a TD maybe it's a little more for Mayes to carry I guess, but Hamdy probably doesn't have the ability to hold him down long regardless. Mayes is better everywhere, Hamdy has the proverbial puncher's chance and that's about it most likely. Which granted at HW means a lot more than at lower weight classes.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Dustin Clements is absolute dogshit (no offence to Dustin if you're reading this).

I was trying to be respectful but obviously if a fighter cannot maintain a winning record on the regional scene the sport probably isn't for them.

I do though appreciate he made it nearly three rounds with Hamdy, as it allowed us to better gauge Hamdy's skillset, and I do think he was actively trying to win that fight which is more than I can say for Hamdy's other two opponents. I will say in his defense he has an amateur win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta; he definitely is far from the worst regional journeyman I have watched.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I was trying to be respectful but obviously if a fighter cannot maintain a winning record on the regional scene the sport probably isn't for them.

I do though appreciate he made it nearly three rounds with Hamdy, as it allowed us to better gauge Hamdy's skillset, and I do think he was actively trying to win that fight which is more than I can say for Hamdy's other two opponents. I will say in his defense he has an amateur win over Waldo Cortes-Acosta; he definitely is far from the worst regional journeyman I have watched.

I can only assume that was before Waldo was training grappling much. Waldo is really good.

 

[The Disasters]

I don't like much today but I do enjoy reading the back and forth from you guys. I'm now interested in the Mayes fight when I had no interest at all originally. I have a couple fights that are interesting to me and a few comments on what's being discussed.

Edwards/Kim: No bet. When someone loses a decision that they dominated statistically I blame their style/effort. That's Kim. For whatever reason she doesn't score well. She has no power or grappling other than a sprawl, and she wins by muscling people around. In this case though she's smaller. I think Edwards should bulk a bit and fight at Featherweight. I don't lay much chalk in MMA, and I don't lay any in WMMA when I think it's a decision, but I don't think this one is every close.

Klose/Garcia: No bet. I think Garcia is one of those guys who is always going to put up a good effort, and always fall a little short against good competition. Especially with late notice fights he's putting himself at a disadvantage when his style relies on wrestling and pressure. I didn't like the reaction to the push incident from Klose. It was really odd, but it was an odd situation too. Once he got over it though he's saying the right things and his style matches up great imo. He loves wrestling and pressure and he's on a full camp. I always look for excuses to bet dogs, especially good grapplers, but I couldn't make that jump here.

Dober/Garcia: I thought Dober would be a popular pick on here. IMO if he doesn't take bad shots, he wins, probably by KO. His takedown defense isn't good at all but Alves has bjj takedowns which I don't rate much. I think Dover has the energy and power to fight off a takedown attempt or two and then he puts Alves to sleep. I bet small on the Dober TKO and ITD.

Morono/Semelsberger: I'm not a fan of either guy and Morono's lack of power and finishing instinct drives me nuts. He has that ability to slow fights down though and I think his movement and pitter patter striking might be enough to win him this fight. I hit Morono and by dec small.

Pantoja/Perez: I'll feel like an idiot if Perez walks right into a guillotine again, but at +160ish I'm going to pay to find out. I think this fight is a pick-em and while Perez will never be able to train away the wrestling instincts, I'm pretty sure his camp worked on guillotine defense quite a bit. Perez ML was my only bet of size. If I was into hedging the easy hedge would be adding Pantoja by sub.

Pena/Nunes: No bet. Either you think the last fight was a mirage and Nunes was dealing with health/personal/team issues, or you think she's finished with her run and Pena is suddenly a beast of a fighter. I went back and watched their last fight and holy shit is Pena a terrible striker. After the first she looked like she just went three rounds with a brick wall. I'm chalking that fight up to Nunes being off and I think she comes out here and finishes Pena, mainly with striking. On top in the guard I think she can do a lot of damage as well but a submission is probably more likely since Pena reacts like a wrestler when she's getting ground and pounded. I'm not betting this one but I think this fight leads us back to Nunes being -500+ in every fight and then I can start looking to bet against her again.

 

[TheMMAnalyst]

I'm not betting this fight, but I see one big difference between Bontorin/Askarov and Moreno. Moreno isn't going to get tired but those other guys do. I think Moreno has him outclassed after he leveled up against Figueiredo and I don't think this one will be very close.

My original read on the fight was Moreno is more durable, has better wrestling/grappling, and has improved his boxing to the point where he should be very competitive in different striking phases with KKF. However it also seems like KKF has dramatically improved his sub defense and defensive scrambling, though there might still be an edge there for Moreno if he can keep forcing "phase-shifts."

My biggest question is how Moreno will look after the wars with Figgy - in the third fight if we are being honest both guys looked like far less durable and willing to brawl like in the first fight where they just traded power shots with reckless abandon non-stop. Except for the Royval fight I don't remember KKF taking a ton of sustained damage (and even that wasn't sustained, just a very short and violent fight).

Ultimately I think it's going to be a really close fight because of the style match-up, so I like getting KKF by decision at +330 when that's his most likely way of winning.

 

[The Disasters]

My original read on the fight was Moreno is more durable, has better wrestling/grappling, and has improved his boxing to the point where he should be very competitive in different striking phases with KKF. However it also seems like KKF has dramatically improved his sub defense and defensive scrambling, though there might still be an edge there for Moreno if he can keep forcing "phase-shifts."

My biggest question is how Moreno will look after the wars with Figgy - in the third fight if we are being honest both guys looked like far less durable and willing to brawl like in the first fight where they just traded power shots with reckless abandon non-stop. Except for the Royval fight I don't remember KKF taking a ton of sustained damage (and even that wasn't sustained, just a very short and violent fight).

Ultimately I think it's going to be a really close fight because of the style match-up, so I like getting KKF by decision at +330 when that's his most likely way of winning.

I think that's the perfect way to monetize your opinion. I don't entirely agree but if that was my opinion that's how I'd bet it. I bet Royval over Moreno though so what do I know?

I think the people thinking that KKF is suddenly a KO artist have some recency bias.

 

[MetaIIica]

I'm all in on Blood Diamond

 

[Guld]

I still gotta look at the weigh ins, but this is where I'm sitting...
-Ank over Smith. I might hedge this with like an >2.5 Rds (over 1.5?). Smith plays spoiler a lot though, but I feel like he's a guy that's constantly overachieving haha.
-A sprinkle on Lewis by stoppage. I have a feeling this might be a "Lewis is still legit" or "this is the beginning of the end of his career" type fight. No need to go heavy on it though because I don't feel confident either way.
-Kai over Moreno. Kai's speed, striking, and grappling have all looked top tier in his last few fights. He's looking better and better in every aspect of MMA and probably peaking right now (I get definite Volk vibes now). Moreno on the other hand looked kinda slow, weak, low output, and maybe even a bit chinny in that last outing (compared to his previous fights with Fig). My brain says this goes to a DEC, but my gut is telling me there might be a stoppage. Kai ML + a prop of DNGTD I think. I can always livebet if it looks like I got it horribly wrong haha.
-Nunes/Pena. Livebet might be the smartest play on this one. I have Pena in a little parlay, because I get the vibe that Nunes is just showing up for paychecks and is focused more on family life, starting a gym, and enjoying retirement. Like others I'm still not sure if the last fight was a case of Nunes fighting stupid, and that she'll fix that this time around, or if she genuinely didn't have the skills/cardio/etc. to win and was forced into a loss.

 

[TrueAscension]

Guess I’m the only one who thinks Pena repeats and Smith makes this one a lot closer than the odds indicate?

 

[Ridge12]

Guess I’m the only one who thinks Pena repeats and Smith makes this one a lot closer than the odds indicate?

He's live for sure and there's value on him. But Marc Montoya won't be in his corner tonight. Not ideal for Smith bettors, though I'm not sure how much, if any, effect that will have.

 

[Bestonian]

Don Tale Mayes shouldn't be a favorite over anyone, especially an olympic calibre wrestler. Taking the Hamdy guy for 2.70 odds is the easiest money on this card.