UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

[mkess101]

The only guy I remember REALLY trying to implement a grappling heavy style vs Turner from the opening bell was Frevola. He obviously had success with it. That said, Turner finishing guys early before they can get any grappling going also plays a role. He deserves credit for that of course. And the Frevola fight was 4 years ago, Turner has showed very good sub skills since.

The question for me is whether Gamrot's level of grappling is in that range that's too much for a guy like Turner to handle. Beneil showed there are levels and that Gamrot is a level below him. But my gut says that even that one notch below Beneil is enough to control a guy like Turner and win rounds. That said...there's juice involved in playing Gamrot too.

Initially I was sure I'd be on Gamrot anything below -200 but now I'm having second thoughts. I think he wins, but the line **might** be right about where it should be. I'll think about it this week and watch a little tape. Maybe hope some $ comes in on Turner and Gamrot gets to -150 or so.

 

[Stat_Collector]

The only guy I remember REALLY trying to implement a grappling heavy style vs Turner from the opening bell was Frevola. He obviously had success with it. That said, Turner finishing guys early before they can get any grappling going also plays a role. He deserves credit for that of course. And the Frevola fight was 4 years ago, Turner has showed very good sub skills since.

The question for me is whether Gamrot's level of grappling is in that range that's too much for a guy like Turner to handle. Beneil showed there are levels and that Gamrot is a level below him. But my gut says that even that one notch below Beneil is enough to control a guy like Turner and win rounds. That said...there's juice involved in playing Gamrot too.

Initially I was sure I'd be on Gamrot anything below -200 but now I'm having second thoughts. I think he wins, but the line **might** be right about where it should be. I'll think about it this week and watch a little tape. Maybe hope some $ comes in on Turner and Gamrot gets to -150 or so.

Turner fought with an injured knee in that Frivola fight. had knee surgery after .

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Tend to agree. And even that Assuncao fight was almost 3 years ago now. Cody is only 31 which seems crazy given his mileage, but he's just not the same guy (or even close) that he was when he won the title. IDK about first round KO (although I may play his rd 1 prop too) but Trevin at + odds is good value.

problem with Trevin is he doesn’t throw anything. I would never bet him straight or to win by decision

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Shev should rag doll grasso. Playing the under

 

[mkess101]

problem with Trevin is he doesn’t throw anything. I would never bet him straight or to win by decision

Basharat fight he did. I'll probably play his KO or itd line if there's any sort of delta, but this could be like +140 ML and +180 itd or something and if that's the case, there's just not enough benefit to play a prop.

Cody is a guy who also just invites being hit. Trevin's camp is gonna know Cody's chin is mostly gone (lasted 5 with Font, but Rob never looked like he was trying to finish--he was just potshotting Cody).

Fading Cody as a favorite vs anyone with any sort of skills is a must at this point imo. It's just...what's the most effective way to fade him.

 

[mkess101]

Turner fought with an injured knee in that Frivola fight. had knee surgery after .

Fair point. Gamrot is also leagues better than Frevola with his grappling, but it's a fair point. Esp because Turner has looked very capable on the mat since that fight.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Turner hits +200 I’m going to just have to play his ml. +175 now. Let the money pile in on Gamrot

 

[mkess101]

Turner hits +200 I’m going to just have to play his ml. +175 now. Let the money pile in on Gamrot

Haha I want Gamrot -150.

Line will stay put and we'll both be disappointed.

 

[DabanggData]

UFC 285
Saturday, March 4, 2023, Las Vegas
6:00 PM ET

https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/94418-ufc-285
https://www.tapology.com/forum/threads/69992
https://twitter.com/search?q=#UFC285&src=typed_query&f=live

UFC 285

Jessica Penne 5.11811 inch reach advantage, 4.33071 inches taller
Jalin Turner 5.11811 inch reach advantage, 5.51181 inches taller
Trevin Jones 4.72441 inch reach advantage, Cody G will be 0.393701 inches taller
Jon Jones 3.54331 inch reach advantage, same height 6'4"

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fair point. Gamrot is also leagues better than Frevola with his grappling, but it's a fair point. Esp because Turner has looked very capable on the mat since that fight.

I think Gamrot is the best at 5 rounders where he benefits having a horse like stamina but wont have that here. Seeing how Turner bullied both Jaime and Riddell like they were school children on the feet. I think he can break Gamrot the same. but my lean on Turner is pretty weak, he has been matched with strikers, can't make the assumptions he won't be grounded.

tho i think Gamrot will likely lose top position like he's done before with lesser grapplers.

 

[mkess101]

I think Gamrot is the best at 5 rounders where he benefits having a horse like stamina but wont have that here. Seeing how Turner bullied both Jaime and Riddell like they were school children on the feet. I think he can break Gamrot the same. but my lean on Turner is pretty weak, he has been matched with strikers, can't make the assumptions he won't be grounded.

tho i think Gamrot will likely lose top position like he's done before with lesser grapplers.

Yeah, and that's where Gamrot's ridiculous cardio comes in imo. Some guys work hard for a TD, have a minute of ground control and then the other guy gets up. After a couple times doing it, they just don't have the energy to remat, scramble, force more grappling. It's the most grueling style of fighting there is. Nothing taxes cardio like it, or even comes close. Guys like Gamrot and Dvashvili are outliers. Arman never expected in their fight.

Beneil is just that good, and was smart to use his own offensive grappling talent to make Gamrot be the nail and not the hammer. Put him on his back and control him.

Turner is clearly a dangerous guy, and he's dangerous anywhere the fight goes. But to me, it's hard to bet against the guy who can force grappling the entire time without his cardio failing him and has the talent to secure TD's and look good to the judges.

I also wonder if Turner's desire to aggressively go after finishes might put him in a bad spot if Gamrot takes him down.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yeah, and that's where Gamrot's ridiculous cardio comes in imo. Some guys work hard for a TD, have a minute of ground control and then the other guy gets up. After a couple times doing it, they just don't have the energy to remat, scramble, force more grappling. It's the most grueling style of fighting there is. Nothing taxes cardio like it, or even comes close. Guys like Gamrot and Dvashvili are outliers. Arman never expected in their fight.

Beneil is just that good, and was smart to use his own offensive grappling talent to make Gamrot be the nail and not the hammer. Put him on his back and control him.

Turner is clearly a dangerous guy, and he's dangerous anywhere the fight goes. But to me, it's hard to bet against the guy who can force grappling the entire time without his cardio failing him and has the talent to secure TD's and look good to the judges.

I also wonder if Turner's desire to aggressively go after finishes might put him in a bad spot if Gamrot takes him down.

I just can't play Gamrot when he has low ctrl time. He's a good grappler who can take guys down and avoid getting taken down, solid standup, but for some reason can't muscle or bully ppl by flooring them.




He koed Scott on the feet.


Even against Diego he took him down 3x and lost top position within seconds.




I have to go with the stats being the stat collector that I am. then you compound the 3 knockdowns Gamrot received by Beniel ,Arman, and Guram, there is a likely hood Turner scores a 10-8 round or steals a 10-9 rnd by dropping him in this fight. I have Turner winning 2-1 on the scorecards.

One thing i'll say is that Gamrot could win if he just uses his tools in a balance manner, cage stalling, a little ctrl on the ground and point striking, he can steal the win, but i see the value side on Turner.

 

[mkess101]

I just can't play Gamrot when he has low ctrl time. He's a good grappler who can take guys down and avoid getting taken down, solid standup, but for some reason can't muscle or bully ppl by flooring them.

View attachment 970730


He koed Scott on the feet.
View attachment 970731

Even against Diego he took him down 3x and lost top position within seconds.

View attachment 970732


I have to go with the stats being the stat collector that I am. then you compound the 3 knockdowns Gamrot received by Beniel ,Arman, and Guram, there is a likely hood Turner scores a 10-8 round or steals a 10-9 rnd by dropping him in this fight. I have Turner winning 2-1 on the scorecards.

One thing i'll say is that Gamrot could win if he just uses his tools in a balance manner, cage stalling, a little ctrl on the ground and point striking, he can steal the win, but i see the value side on Turner.

Fereira is a helluva scrambler, to me like I said it's Gamrot's ability to constantly re-engage the grappling and go after TD after TD that makes him tough to bet against. He doesn't slow and won't stop looking for it. But he's not worthless standing either, he's well rounded. Problem is, I'll be betting all the fights at Caesars and right now Gamrot is -200. That's too steep for me, can't pay that juice. I would need $ to come in on Turner to consider a play. If Turner somehow goes above +200, I'd probably flip and consider a play on him. Odds where they are, I'll pass.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Fereira is a helluva scrambler, to me like I said it's Gamrot's ability to constantly re-engage the grappling and go after TD after TD that makes him tough to bet against. He doesn't slow and won't stop looking for it. But he's not worthless standing either, he's well rounded. Problem is, I'll be betting all the fights at Caesars and right now Gamrot is -200. That's too steep for me, can't pay that juice. I would need $ to come in on Turner to consider a play. If Turner somehow goes above +200, I'd probably flip and consider a play on him. Odds where they are, I'll pass.

If Turner was a gassy fighter, I can see all those takedowns breaking him down and him starting to lose on the feet, but doesn't look that way. Turner has little body fat and long athletic frame, Jon Jones body type for a lw is another problem we haven't mentioned. I mean i get he will take him down, but judges don't care about takedowns, if you can't control a guy or gass him , it becomes worthless.

 

[mkess101]

If Turner was a gassy fighter, I can see all those takedowns breaking him down and him starting to lose on the feet, but doesn't look that way. Turner has little body fat and long athletic frame, Jon Jones body type for a lw is another problem we haven't mentioned. I mean i get he will take him down, but judges don't care about takedowns, if you can't control a guy or gass him , it becomes worthless.

Yes and no. Gamrot is also good at using cage control so he could win rounds via wall n stall followed by a takedown...more wall n stall, then hold his own striking. Dvashvili style.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Yes and no. Gamrot is also good at using cage control so he could win rounds via wall n stall followed by a takedown...more wall n stall, then hold his own striking. Dvashvili style.

with that little ctrl time (ufcstats combines cage ctrl with ground ctrl) it’s not a part of his fighting strategy , but who knows if he might..Turner just looks too athletic and explosive to let a smaller guy cagestall him.

Turner has a questionable chin. i agree Gamrot can strike ,…and pose a danger on the feet . tho no easy task with that height.

 

[mkess101]

with that little ctrl time (ufcstats combines cage ctrl with ground ctrl) it’s not a part of his fighting strategy , but who knows if he might..Turner just looks too athletic and explosive to let a smaller guy cagestall him.

Turner has a questionable chin. i agree Gamrot can strike ,…and pose a danger on the feet . tho no easy task with that height.

The thing that sucks is there are so many wide lines on this card. I'm driving out of state (only 1.5 hours each way so not THAT far, but still a little haul) to get bets in at the book. So looking for spots I like other than Gane and Ricci, and this line wasn't one of the crazy wide ones. But I also am not gonna force a play that's not there. I'd rather fade Garbrandt and play Jones at + money at this point. But I have this week to research a little more and also see if there's line movement.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

The thing that sucks is there are so many wide lines on this card. I'm driving out of state (only 1.5 hours each way so not THAT far, but still a little haul) to get bets in at the book. So looking for spots I like other than Gane and Ricci, and this line wasn't one of the crazy wide ones. But I also am not gonna force a play that's not there. I'd rather fade Garbrandt and play Jones at + money at this point. But I have this week to research a little more and also see if there's line movement.

You want to bet ricci at nearly -300?

 

[Holz37]

Fereira is a helluva scrambler, to me like I said it's Gamrot's ability to constantly re-engage the grappling and go after TD after TD that makes him tough to bet against. He doesn't slow and won't stop looking for it. But he's not worthless standing either, he's well rounded. Problem is, I'll be betting all the fights at Caesars and right now Gamrot is -200. That's too steep for me, can't pay that juice. I would need $ to come in on Turner to consider a play. If Turner somehow goes above +200, I'd probably flip and consider a play on him. Odds where they are, I'll pass.

Beneil, Arman and Diego have all showed insane scrambling ability and have much better TDD than what Turner has shown. The Frevola fight was a while ago but against Mullarkey he got taken down and didn't seem to have much off his back in terms of get up game. If Turner hasn't improved there significantly he prob gets grinded out unless he finds a KO standing.

 

[mkess101]

Beneil, Arman and Diego have all showed insane scrambling ability and have much better TDD than what Turner has shown. The Frevola fight was a while ago but against Mullarkey he got taken down and didn't seem to have much off his back in terms of get up game. If Turner hasn't improved there significantly he prob gets grinded out unless he finds a KO standing.

Agree, but I just can't -200 juice on Gamrot. -150 yes.