UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane

UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Ribovics has a lot of skills and normally would make an intriguing dog but this is definitely not the spot.

If there is a hole in Ribovics MMA game it is his takedown defense and Loik is an agressive grappler capable of taking down, holding down, and submitting him. Estebans getup game is reliant on the kimura sweep, which he is unlikely to hit on Loik more than once if at all. Loik isn't the most comfortable striker but his shots are powerful enough that Ribovics is going to think twice before he runs onto one. Loik tends to fatigue in the middle of the second round but that isn't something Ribovics is going to be able to exploit unless his getup game has dramatically improved.

I see the most likely outcome as Loik subbing Ribovics but it could definitely hit the scorecards as well given Loiks tendency to fatigue in the second half of fights. I don't have any action on Loik but I do think he is one of the more reliable favorites in his price range.
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Makes some sense to me. Ribovics is normally very good at sweeping and getting up, but he hasn't faced the caliber of wrestling that Loik has.

I'm just annoyed because I was really anticipating his debut, and didn't think I'd have to consider not betting him.
 
Stat_Collector said:
Gamrot either taps you or he eventually gives up on taking you down or goes heavy on strikes. I don't operate on what could but what should . Gamrot beat Arman like I told everyone he would because of his crazy 5 rounds of cardio, at the same , i told everyone Beniel would beat Gamrot because Arman would have beaten Gamrot in a 3 round fight. I'm not lost on who Gamrot is, I've seen all his fights, and know where his weaknesses are.


'he swept Beniel multiple times.'



Show where he swept him multiple times, he scored 1 reversal in the end of round 3 and attacked a darce when his arms were tired, the fight was basically over. I don't understand how you can watch that fight and say it was remotely competitive in terms of grappling. He did a good job surviving, at no point did he even gain top ctrl or sweep other than round 3 at the last seconds. He got beat soundly, the 1 crackhead judge gave him a w based on maybe striking, not his grappling.

As for Agapova, I didn't say it was just her height, i said that she reversed Moroz who is a bigger girl and that the fight was dangerous because of Gillian being a flake. I don't care for fighters with bad records, its why i knew Gillian would lose to Aldrich, she is and still is a flake.

And second, im not going to come on here after that and try and convince you in 2023 that 'Agapova is good bro , trust me bro i train mma bro.' like i have some inside knowledge of what goes on at the top of the sport because signed up for an mma class.

I've been currently training at mma masters in miami fl for 6 months now, before that I trained at free style fighting acedemy when jorge Masvidal was training in 2007 during his backyard days, i saw him regularly in his younger days and we shared neutral friends, ive seen fighters been around boxing gyms my whole life, i don't bring this up because i don't think it matters, If having any kind of training added credibility to prediction rate every mma fighter would be multi millionaire. that's not how it works. 90% of fighters said Jake paul would beat Tommy Fury, having knowledge on how to fight and having knowledge how to look at fight data and make a prediction are two completely different things. Most fighters don't have time or care to obsess on every detail on video. So i don't really get why you keep bringing up your personal experience to the conversation, 'saying trust me bro i know' is not an argument.'
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We can probably debate "swept", I get your point. Early in rd 1, Ferriera uses a leglock to force Beneil to turn and as he does Ferriera starts to slide to his back but Beneil bails and runs away. Not technically a sweep because he didn't reverse Beneil to his back, but he used his grappling to get Beneil to a spot where he had to bail or have his back taken. He scrambled again later in the round to almost get Beneil's back again and Beneil pulled away. Rd 2 was all Beneil for sure. Rd 3 yeah late in the round he clearly swept him. And yes, the grappling was absolutely competitive because Ferriera was the only one who ever attacked at all. The only one who threatened with anything. I have no problem with Beneil getting the nod, control matters too. I never claimed otherwise. I only said it was competitive.

The rest of your rant...uhh dude...I didn't even bring up my past in MMA. At all. Was me saying that I know there are gaps in skillsets and that I understand everyone "isn't the same" what you're referencing? I'm actually trying to figure out what you're talking about here, because it seemed to set something off for you to get into your own experiences in the sport but I didn't even mention it...? I've mentioned it before here sure, if I think it maybe has some specific relevance or something but I never said a word about it this time (I don't think...unless I'm missing something?) because that's not what I was talking about. (And shit dude...my MMA "career" was 13 years ago and lasted a hot minute LOL--it gave me some insight to be in that world for 6 years but it's not like I was anything other than another guy at a gym). I'm confused about you even claiming I'm saying "trust me bro I know" to be honest LOL.

And if we're being real, your "stats" are predicated on your own assessments too. They're fine, a way for you to organize your own thoughts about who fighters are, but they aren't some sort of magical special sauce. When you rate a guy "good" "average" or whatever terminology you're using, you are adding in your own opinion on why he gets that rating. MMA isn't a sport that can solely be broken down into stats because it's a neverending rabbit hole then of "who did he take down...okay that guy had good TD defense stats...but who did he fight that has good TD stats...but then who did they fight that got them to those stats"...and on and on and on you could go. Eventually you just have to watch the fighters and make some assessments based on what you see. So to a degree, we're all looking at these guys and saying "I know what I'm seeing here and it's X" or "Seems like this guy doesn't do Y very well..."

My intent was never to pick a fight with you just so you know. It's not why any of us are here. If we see an assessment we think is off, for sure we're gonna tell each other that. And that's all I was doing. We're better at this stuff when we have these back and forths, an echo chamber does none of us any good. But we don't need it to be something where it's bordering on shit talking either.
 
NonPhixion said:
i want to play Gane at these odds but idk what his path to victory is. I can't see Jon getting knocked out.
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Winning striking exchanges via better footwork and kickboxing. Jon will have a reach edge, but it's not the crazy one he had over most LHW's. Jon may be the slower guy honestly, Gane is used to carrying this weight while Jones may not be.

I will likely play not just Gane ML but Gane decision too.
 
Garbrandt and Brunson will both lose by KO in 1st and retire. Gane TKOs Jones in the 5th. Nickal wins inside a minute but will be exposed soon. Shavkat will be champ by end of year.
 
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Benny 97 said:
Final thoughts:

Garbrandt and Brunson will both lose by KO in 1st and retire. Gane TKOs Jones in the 5th. Nickal wins but he will be exposed very soon.

I have no idea about the rest of the card.
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I Could see the main event even going for a Dec but i do like your prediction of Gane pulling an TKO on Jones in the 5th.
It could happen on the 5th or 4th.

Gane has being preparing for this fight with Jones.
 
MixMartialFarts said:
I think Grasso and Geoff Neal are both being seriously disrespected by the odds makers.
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I think they're ones where they're slightly undervalued but should still be in the 3.5-4 range and I'm not betting on someone to win who I think is in that range just because they're in the 5-6 range.
 
rev0lver said:
Anyone think Blackshear is being overlooked? I think he's actually pretty solid and has the experience advantage here. He gassed in his last fight, but he took that on 10 days notice and still brought it to Zalal (who's underrated himself imo).

I'm not really sold on Farid as much as I am with his brother. He mostly looked good in his DWCS fight, but that was against a kind of mediocre brawler, and he hasn't run over his low-quality competition as much as he should have.
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Farid is a good striker and very well rounded. There aren't any glaring holes in his MMA game he really is solid everywhere. The one knock on him, if any, would probably be his striking defense which can at times be a bit lax but that won't be a liability against Blackshear who will want nothing to do with him on the feet.

Blackshear has good offensive wrestling and is a great scrambler but he is easily taken down and will pursue low percentage submissions over riding out a round in dominant position. Farid is a good grappler himself, that rarely make mistakes on the ground, and will make Blackshear pay if he goes for low percentage submissions or surrenders a dominant position in lieu of a submission attempt.

If this fight is fought primarily on the feet Farid will likely win ITD. At least half of the submission wins on his record are club and subs. The fight is lined accurately as is imo.
 
mkess101 said:
Winning striking exchanges via better footwork and kickboxing. Jon will have a reach edge, but it's not the crazy one he had over most LHW's. Jon may be the slower guy honestly, Gane is used to carrying this weight while Jones may not be.

I will likely play not just Gane ML but Gane decision too.
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yeah thats fair, i don't trust Gane's TDD though and i think Jon can really control this fight on the ground.
I think i might just play FGTD.
 
NonPhixion said:
yeah thats fair, i don't trust Gane's TDD though and i think Jon can really control this fight on the ground.
I think i might just play FGTD.
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Of course it's possible Jones uses wrestling to win. But it wasn't a part of his last 2 fights at all even though he was being outstruck for good stretches in both.

And now he's fighting a much bigger guy than he ever has. Ngannou shocked Gane with using wrestling, and Francis had a big size edge. If we see a bigger and stronger version of 2015 Jones, Gane may be in trouble for sure. But it's more likely to me that we see the more recent version of Jones. Which hasn't looked dominant at all.
 
mkess101 said:
Of course it's possible Jones uses wrestling to win. But it wasn't a part of his last 2 fights at all even though he was being outstruck for good stretches in both.

And now he's fighting a much bigger guy than he ever has. Ngannou shocked Gane with using wrestling, and Francis had a big size edge. If we see a bigger and stronger version of 2015 Jones, Gane may be in trouble for sure. But it's more likely to me that we see the more recent version of Jones. Which hasn't looked dominant at all.
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Have you seen his embedded blog? He sure doesn’t look bigger or stronger. Just a bit fatter

so his advantage of being a big light heavyweight is gone. No upside to moving to heavy except the lack of competition and let’s be real he was getting beat in that division by guys he would
Never lose to in his prime
 
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Captain Chesapeake said:
Have you seen his embedded blog? He sure doesn’t look bigger or stronger. Just a bit fatter

so his advantage of being a big light heavyweight is gone. No upside to moving to heavy except the lack of competition and let’s be real he was getting beat in that division by guys he would
Never lose to in his prime
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That's kind of what I don't get. I didn't see embedded, I guess let's see what he looks like on the scale. But yeah...it feels like because of the long layoff, Jones most recent performances were kind of forgotten and a lot of people are banking on a prime Jones showing up.

If his fight with Reyes was a year ago, would the line still look like this?
 
UFCIsNOTRigged said:
Farid is a good striker and very well rounded. There aren't any glaring holes in his MMA game he really is solid everywhere. The one knock on him, if any, would probably be his striking defense which can at times be a bit lax but that won't be a liability against Blackshear who will want nothing to do with him on the feet.

Blackshear has good offensive wrestling and is a great scrambler but he is easily taken down and will pursue low percentage submissions over riding out a round in dominant position. Farid is a good grappler himself, that rarely make mistakes on the ground, and will make Blackshear pay if he goes for low percentage submissions or surrenders a dominant position in lieu of a submission attempt.

If this fight is fought primarily on the feet Farid will likely win ITD. At least half of the submission wins on his record are club and subs. The fight is lined accurately as is imo.
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I'm not betting Blackshear, but I would add that he has really good sweeps. Although a wrestler with a very good base should be able to shut that down like Sabatello did.
 
mkess101 said:
That's kind of what I don't get. I didn't see embedded, I guess let's see what he looks like on the scale. But yeah...it feels like because of the long layoff, Jones most recent performances were kind of forgotten and a lot of people are banking on a prime Jones showing up.

If his fight with Reyes was a year ago, would the line still look like this?
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FqLIAxdaEAEzYTT


Just looks the same with bigger arms and a lot fatter lol.
 
mkess101 said:
That's kind of what I don't get. I didn't see embedded, I guess let's see what he looks like on the scale. But yeah...it feels like because of the long layoff, Jones most recent performances were kind of forgotten and a lot of people are banking on a prime Jones showing up.

If his fight with Reyes was a year ago, would the line still look like this?
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It’s got to be because of ngannou taking gane down. Only reasoning for the line imo
 
mkess101 said:
If his fight with Reyes was a year ago, would the line still look like this?
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Imagine if Santos and Reyes Decision were a little bit different and Jones was 0-2 in his last two fights (totally reasonable), coming from a 3 year layoff, up a weight class and fighting an absolute killer in Gane.
 
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