UFC Fight Night - Barboza vs Chikadze - Offical discussion

[SalvadorAllende]

A lot of the people here are looking for someone to tail

Pretty much lol.

This card has not a lot of familiar fighters and not a lot of value.

I'm on the fence with Kevin Lee fight. At first I thought he was going to get starched but I'm still unsure.

I just got lucky with Kongo vs Sergei lol.

 

[Thesnake101]

Pretty much lol.

This card has not a lot of familiar fighters and not a lot of value.

I'm on the fence with Kevin Lee fight. At first I thought he was going to get starched but I'm still unsure.

I just got lucky with Kongo vs Sergei lol.

I'd probably just look for a prop in the Lee fight, maybe DNGTD since I think the dynamic would either be Kevin getting the sub or crumbling late.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Jae sighting!!!

What's up Mike! Not trying to hijack the thread, but how are you and the family doing? Hope everything is good

 

[TrueAscension]

Passing up on a shitload of value if you only bet on elite fighters.

I place bets on fighters that I think have a strong edge with good odds that I have watched fight for a long, long time and taped to a degree where I can drop 2-5k on them, I don’t have the time to do that with this card and I probably won’t even be able to watch it so while I maybe missing out on value that I could have found in my younger years, I prefer to not just toss money blindly at fights.

I save that for football thank you very much.

 

[mkess101]

What's up Mike! Not trying to hijack the thread, but how are you and the family doing? Hope everything is good

Everything is good man. Kid growing up fast, all that good stuff. Good to see you drop in here man, hope all is good with you too!

 

[Deleted member 510399]

You think Lee takes him down and chokes him? He should have no trouble getting him down, not sure about the sub though

Yeah, I think he submits him in round 1 with ease.

The ghost of Mike Perry took him down easily. Kevin Lee is a phenomenal grappler, and d-rod is a journeyman at best.

People drawing comparisons from the Iaquinta fight is a bit comical. Iaquinta is the only person to stave off multiple Khabib TDs, and regularly trains with Matt Serra.

 

[Monster Meat]

I’m always tempted to make degen plays

we’ll see what happens with the odds this week

oh definitely force some bets it’s not fun if you don’t

 

[Monster Meat]

Barboza has been great to me so I’ll
Def be riding him here at around even. He’s looked really good lately.

 

[Monster Meat]

I place bets on fighters that I think have a strong edge with good odds that I have watched fight for a long, long time and taped to a degree where I can drop 2-5k on them, I don’t have the time to do that with this card and I probably won’t even be able to watch it so while I maybe missing out on value that I could have found in my younger years, I prefer to not just toss money blindly at fights.

I save that for football thank you very much.

football!!! Yesssss I cannot wait

 

[BigSteve]

Yeah, I think he submits him in round 1 with ease.

The ghost of Mike Perry took him down easily. Kevin Lee is a phenomenal grappler, and d-rod is a journeyman at best.

People drawing comparisons from the Iaquinta fight is a bit comical. Iaquinta is the only person to stave off multiple Khabib TDs, and regularly trains with Matt Serra.

Interesting. This fight will tell us a lot about D-Rods grappling.

Journeyman at best is deffs harsh in my opinion. Guy could easily be 17-0. Not the best competition sure but solid UFC talent. After his loss we have seen that Means still has some gass in the tank. Perry will beat you unless you have ranking potential. Perry took him down yes but then ate bombs for 3 rounds, bombs that Lee wont be able to eat. Like I said I see Lee being able to take him down in the first, hes a great wrestler. If D-rod gets up without being finished its looking real bad for Lee.

Lee got Al down and had his back in 2 different rounds and still lost. Thats because he has no head movement and was eating jabs all fight. Technical strikers are Lees problem, he seems to do great against grapplers because for the most part he is a better and stronger grappler. Even the Olivera fight, he was super uncomfortable from the pressure and striking. D-Rod will implement the same style. Again it all depends on how he looks on his back, live bet could be an option. I might leave half a uni on D-Rod in case he has a solid round 1, odds are a bit off in my opinion. More of a fade on Lee who is a flake, moving up and coming back from 2 ACLs and a rib injury recently

 

[Noel Wards]

Martinez

• Coming off a first round submission loss in DWCS
• Must have crazy power because all his wins are first round or second Round KO
• I have no idea about his level of striking or anything else in his game

Canneti

• Coming off a KO loss
• 2-4 in his UFC career. 41 yr old BW.
• All wins in UFC are decisions. Last win in 2018. Granted he hasn't been very active.

What does everyone think? Worth chucking a bit on a Martinez 1st round KO?

 

[Stat_Collector]

a lot of risk bets, maybe one

Really surprised people see Barboza as the one more likely to fade here. This reminds me of how many people were fading Oliveira in the past few fights for looking for a way out if things don't go his way. Burgos pushes an insane pace and he finished him in the 3rd. Felder and Hooker are also known to push forward with the pace. Barboza has now shown several times he can be in wars and also take a ton of punishment. I'd be very surprised to see him as the one fading vs. Giga unless he's absorbed a shitload of punishment.

Giga is a better point fighter imo. Giga is like the 145 ceryl Gane. I dont think giga will be putting on the pressure. I think he out scores Edson from the outside, making Edson the one to push forward.

Martinez

• Coming off a first round submission loss in DWCS
• Must have crazy power because all his wins are first round or second Round KO
• I have no idea about his level of striking or anything else in his game

Canneti

• Coming off a KO loss
• 2-4 in his UFC career. 41 yr old BW.
• All wins in UFC are decisions. Last win in 2018. Granted he hasn't been very active.

What does everyone think? Worth chucking a bit on a Martinez 1st round KO?

Look at Martinez' record, he fought the same guy twice in his pro career and 1 in amatuer, casey jones. That is already a red flag, how legit are his wins when he is fighting local low tier competition? There can even be possibility that his fights could be works, fighters should never fight the same guy repeatedly in the beginning of their career, its definitely record stacking tactic.

Caneneti put massive pressure on Marlon in one round and showed a tough push. He also displayed solid wrestling in his ufc career. His biggest defect is his sub defense game, but Mana doesnt have this threat. Nor is the threat of a decision lost. Mana is like a Royval type fighter, tries to go for the finish but is not a point fighter, and he has less 3 round decision experience, Caneneti is a better decision type fighter. Watch him on instagram , some ppl will roll their eyes at me, but he has good boxing technique, i did amateur boxing myself, and i know good technique when i see it.

Mana also lost to a lower tier fighter in drako, mana iS the Rafa Garcia of this card, very unproven against solid tier competition.

 

[Noel Wards]

a lot of risk bets, maybe one

Giga is a better point fighter imo. Giga is like the 145 ceryl Gane. I dont think giga will be putting on the pressure. I think he out scores Edson from the outside, making Edson the one to push forward.

Look at Martinez' record, he fought the same guy twice in his pro career and 1 in amatuer, casey jones. That is already a red flag, how legit are his wins when he is fighting local low tier competition? There can even be possibility that his fights could be works, fighters should never fight the same guy repeatedly in the beginning of their career, its definitely record stacking tactic.

Caneneti put massive pressure on Marlon in one round and showed a tough push. He also displayed solid wrestling in his ufc career. His biggest defect is his sub defense game, but Mana doesnt have this threat. Nor is the threat of a decision lost. Mana is like a Royval type fighter, tries to go for the finish but is not a point fighter, and he has less 3 round decision experience, Caneneti is a better decision type fighter. Watch him on instagram , some ppl will roll their eyes at me, but he has good boxing technique, i did amateur boxing myself, and i know good technique when i see it.

Mana also lost to a lower tier fighter in drako, mana if the Rafa Garcia of this card, very unproven against solid tier competition.

Thanks. Good analysis.

Do you think it's a work? Their first fight was in Bellator, I don't think they would do that. But you are saying when they fought again two years later in LFA?

Regardless I'll find another bet. Cannetti sounds better than his record shows.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Thanks. Good analysis.

Do you think it's a work? Their first fight was in Bellator, I don't think they would do that. But you are saying when they fought again two years later in LFA?

Regardless I'll find another bet. Cannetti sounds better than his record shows.

this video gives clarity fixes work^, too put it shortly , mma is full of jobbers.

Underdog bets are always risky, but mana as a favorite should be a pass for everyone, I cant see the value , when there are better fighters to rely on.

 

[Spath]

Interesting. This fight will tell us a lot about D-Rods grappling.

Journeyman at best is deffs harsh in my opinion. Guy could easily be 17-0. Not the best competition sure but solid UFC talent. After his loss we have seen that Means still has some gass in the tank. Perry will beat you unless you have ranking potential. Perry took him down yes but then ate bombs for 3 rounds, bombs that Lee wont be able to eat. Like I said I see Lee being able to take him down in the first, hes a great wrestler. If D-rod gets up without being finished its looking real bad for Lee.

Lee got Al down and had his back in 2 different rounds and still lost. Thats because he has no head movement and was eating jabs all fight. Technical strikers are Lees problem, he seems to do great against grapplers because for the most part he is a better and stronger grappler. Even the Olivera fight, he was super uncomfortable from the pressure and striking. D-Rod will implement the same style. Again it all depends on how he looks on his back, live bet could be an option. I might leave half a uni on D-Rod in case he has a solid round 1, odds are a bit off in my opinion. More of a fade on Lee who is a flake, moving up and coming back from 2 ACLs and a rib injury recently

Good post.

Perry is surprisingly solid grappler and I think many have expected him to only stand and bang. By that I mean he has taken people down by surprise. With Kevin Lee I don’t think the surprise element is there, D-rod will expect Lee to try and take him down. Should Lee surprise him in the stand up?

Lee’s injuries and gas tank/pace problems in the past certainly are the questions that we don’t have the answers to. How good version of FKL will we see? I think this is a no bet for me, but it’s a interesting fight for sure

 

[benebox]

Is UFC fight pass working for everyone. I've been getting connection failed page every time I try to log on?

*Nevermind it was due to my VPN

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Yeah, I think he submits him in round 1 with ease.

The ghost of Mike Perry took him down easily. Kevin Lee is a phenomenal grappler, and d-rod is a journeyman at best.

People drawing comparisons from the Iaquinta fight is a bit comical. Iaquinta is the only person to stave off multiple Khabib TDs, and regularly trains with Matt Serra.

Mike perry actually has pretty good wrestling

a large bet on a wrestler coming off two blown knees and moving up 15lbs with 1 round of cardio and hasn’t fought in 18 months generally isn’t a good idea

 

[Jordan3399]

Martinez

• Coming off a first round submission loss in DWCS
• Must have crazy power because all his wins are first round or second Round KO
• I have no idea about his level of striking or anything else in his game

Canneti

• Coming off a KO loss
• 2-4 in his UFC career. 41 yr old BW.
• All wins in UFC are decisions. Last win in 2018. Granted he hasn't been very active.

What does everyone think? Worth chucking a bit on a Martinez 1st round KO?

I see you struggle to wikicap

 

[Noel Wards]

I see you struggle to wikicap

I don't know what a wikicap is.

Your tone sounds a bit insulting. So I'll take a moment to disparage you.

Ye you bum. I'm sitting here with 85% accuracy rate, with a fair amount of underdogs. Do you think I sound like I need a wikicap?

Wikicap ya self into bankruptcy. Only use fancy technical words when you aren't down money.

 

[Noel Wards]

JJ Aldrich VS Vanessa

• JJ Aldrich has fairly strong wrestling & clean enough striking for my taste
• A large amount of JJ Aldrich wins & loses are in the UFC. All UFC calibre.
• Vanessa is .500 in lesser organisations. She has lost and won against some pretty poor opponents.
• Vanessa is undersized for this bout. Though she preparing for another bout so her cardio shouldn't be worse than usual.
• Almost all Aldrich wins are by Decision. So if you betting on Aldrich like I am. The odds are notably better.

Alessio Di Chircio VS Abdul
As a fair few in this thread has mentioned.

• Alessio has never been finished. Abdul gassss after the 1st, is predictable. On a 3 fight losing streak.
• Although formerly on a losing streak of 3 himself. Alessio Di Chirico faced quite skilled strikers that he did fairly well in. i.e. Holland
• He stopped that streak by finishing another dangerous finisher in Buckley in the 1st.
• Abdul wins in the UFC are against fighters a tier or two below Alessio.

Mukmud Muradov VS Gerald

• Gerald is nearing .500 in the UFC. He was KO'd twice in a fairly short period of time recently.
• Mukmud has crisp boxing, with a fair amount of power. Sambo Combat background and has shrugged off TD's from a solid wrestler in Andrew Sanchez.
• Mukmud is on a 3 fight win streak in the UFC. The latest 2 by finish. The first fight was on short notice. Good cardio.
• Mukmud is on something like a 14 fight win streak. With a crazy amount of KO finishes. His last loss was in 2016 by doctor stoppage.

Guido Canneti VS Martinez
This is a wild one. I might make two parlays to have one with this.

• Martinez looked real bad on his back. Losing too not great competition in Drako.
• 100% finishing rate in Martinez. However, his record has a good amount of cans.
• Guido is an 41 BW. He has very little fights. The mileage is different.
• DOGGO has seen that Guido has adapted his boxing. Fairly clean. Good high guard.
• A big part of Guido problem is Sub defense. Not a factor in this fight. He has solid wrestling and good pressure.
• All Guido wins in the UFC are by decision. So if you are looking to bet on him, the odds are notably better.
• Meanwhile Doggo has seen that Martinez tries to take your head off. If not he's not the point fighter Guido is, and will likely lose the fight from that point.