UFC Fight Night: Covington v Woodley

[Broe.]

This is travelling outside the realm of betting discussion BUT I'd rather fast-track these insanely hyped prospects straight to the top fighters in their division. Sink or swim. It they win, great, the hype was justified. If they get tooled a la Frankie Edgar v Yair, everybody can shut the fuck up about them

yeah but you need to time to adjust to a higher level. if they would have thrown in Adesanya against Whittaker in his first ufc fight he would have gotten smoked and he wouldnt have been as good as he is now. Chimaev beat 2 bums, if he convincingly beats GM3 it is more clear how good he actually is.

 

[Tirimasuperman]

yeah but you need to time to adjust to a higher level. if they would have thrown in Adesanya against Whittaker in his first ufc fight he would have gotten smoked and he wouldnt have been as good as he is now. Chimaev beat 2 bums, if he convincingly beats GM3 it is more clear how good he actually is.

I'm not even sure he would have to be honest

Also worth mentioning Yair worked his way back up to fringe #1 contender status so it's not like failing your initial top 5-10 test is a death sentence. If anything it's better for the fighter as it shows them their own glaring holes

Also beating GM3 tells us nothing about whether he's ready for Maia lmfao, don't kid yourself

 

[Tirimasuperman]

yeah but you need to time to adjust to a higher level. if they would have thrown in Adesanya against Whittaker in his first ufc fight he would have gotten smoked and he wouldnt have been as good as he is now. Chimaev beat 2 bums, if he convincingly beats GM3 it is more clear how good he actually is.

Is worth mentioning we're coming at this from different perspectives though:

You genuinely want to build up prospects, I want them to fail

 

[Broe.]

I'm not even sure he would have to be honest

Also worth mentioning Yair worked his way back up to fringe #1 contender status so it's not like failing your initial top 5-10 test is a death sentence. If anything it's better for the fighter as it shows them their own glaring holes

Also beating GM3 tells us nothing about whether he's ready for Maia lmfao, don't kid yourself

I am of the opinion that you can destroy talent by letting talented fighters fight too good of competition too soon. If you take a horrific beating that could diminish your confidence significantly and maybe even do irrevocable physical damage and destroy your once prosperous future forever. Just look at Alex Hernandez for example.

 

[Broe.]

Is worth mentioning we're coming at this from different perspectives though:

You genuinely want to build up prospects, I want them to fail

But i dont understand that. I would want every fighter to reach maximum potential. I don't see how you could not be in favour of that.....

 

[Tirimasuperman]

But i dont understand that. I would want every fighter to reach maximum potential. I don't see how you could not be in favour of that.....

It literally isn't possible for every fighter to reach their maximum potential. In every fight someone has to win and someone has to lose lmfao

Fighters should be reaching their potential (or close to) BEFORE they get to the UFC. Once in the UFC it's a proving ground, if you can't hang then go back to regionals until you can. And a lot of the reason fighters are forced back to regionals is because they didn't develop enough before getting to the UFC (the premier fighting organisation/the big show)

From a betting perspective I hate the way prospects get free wins on the way up because it means more squash match odds and less fights at evens. Yeah there's money to be made off fading fighters who get these astronomical odds on the rare occasions they don't deserve them, but it's so much more fun to cap matchups that are legitimately even (or close enough to) as opposed to Khamzat Chimaev v John Phillips

 

[Broe.]

It literally isn't possible for every fighter to reach their maximum potential. In every fight someone has to win and someone has to lose lmfao

Fighters should be reaching their potential (or close to) BEFORE they get to the UFC. Once in the UFC it's a proving ground, if you can't hang then go back to regionals until you can. And a lot of the reason fighters are forced back to regionals is because they didn't develop enough before getting to the UFC (the premier fighting organisation/the big show)

From a betting perspective I hate the way prospects get free wins on the way up because it means more squash match odds and less fights at evens. Yeah there's money to be made off fading fighters who get these astronomical odds on the rare occasions they don't deserve them, but it's so much more fun to cap matchups that are legitimately even (or close enough to) as opposed to Khamzat Chimaev v John Phillips

lol of course it is possible for all fighters to reach their maximum potential, just gradually increase difficulty of opponents for prospects, for older guys with many fights you obviously already know their level of competition. With chimaev its still a mystery, so you gradually build him up to the level where he matches up well with his competition.

 

[careto]

I dont care who Chimaev faces but Dana hypes him up so much and then matches him with GM3 is just ridiculous. If he is so high on him then give him a decent test, dont keep giving him gimme fights to keep selling the casuals on his hype.
I can already hear all the other made-up stories about him traveling to Ireland but was detained by the authorities to protect Conor.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Lol,

I’ll be betting Woodley and GM3...

yeah have fun laying -500 on the guy who beat 2 dudes from the UK who have never put on a pair of wrestling shoes in their life.

I got a feeling woodleys roids are gonna kick in to beat Colby. He’s gonna win this the same way Biden will win the election.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Chimaev is way heavy to be the favorite i agree with some had said about his recent wins at the fight islands as much as i liked the fight islands.
I have to disagree with the oddmarkers on Chimaev i wont be betting Chimaev at all.
I had seen one odd for Bektic 625! i am sorry really? he lost twice with the UFC banner i dont think he should be priced that heavy as a favorite but rather then priced slightly as a underdog.

I can understand the narrative for Bektic why some would be heavy on him though.
470/625 makes me not want to place my bet. As thats way to high.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

I dont care who Chimaev faces but Dana hypes him up so much and then matches him with GM3 is just ridiculous. If he is so high on him then give him a decent test, dont keep giving him gimme fights to keep selling the casuals on his hype.
I can already hear all the other made-up stories about him traveling to Ireland but was detained by the authorities to protect Conor.

GM3 is very a good match up for Chimaev, for someone like Chimaev who hasn't yet tested UFC grapplers. Although i am not betting Chimaev nor Bektic unless the odds drop hopefully they will.

 

[BigSteve]

Lol,

I’ll be betting Woodley and GM3...

yeah have fun laying -500 on the guy who beat 2 dudes from the UK who have never put on a pair of wrestling shoes in their life.

I got a feeling woodleys roids are gonna kick in to beat Colby. He’s gonna win this the same way Biden will win the election.

Have you seen GM3 stop a takedown yet

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Fighters should be reaching their potential (or close to) BEFORE they get to the UFC.

This isn't the way the UFC has ever operated, and especially not in the past 15 years. If fighters waited to reach their full potential before joining the UFC, they would all be 20+ fights into their career and at least 28 years old. DWTNCS wouldn't exist.

Oh, and we would go from 41 cards with 13/14 booked fights to about 10 cards all year.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

Have you seen GM3 stop a takedown yet

GM3 is such a huge step up in competition. It will be interesting to see how Khamzat will be as the fight goes on. Of course he should be able to take him down, but if he gasses out after the 2nd round maybe Khamzat will shoot an ill advised takedown and GM3 will snatch that neck. How do we know how good Khamzats submission defense is or striking is? Cause his name is Dagestany sounding? I mean, Khamzat should be -300 if that.

 

[Crimp_Keeper]

Lol,

I’ll be betting Woodley and GM3...

yeah have fun laying -500 on the guy who beat 2 dudes from the UK who have never put on a pair of wrestling shoes in their life.

I got a feeling woodleys roids are gonna kick in to beat Colby. He’s gonna win this the same way Biden will win the election.

It’s going to be a rough couple of months for ya on top of the losing week you just had.

 

[theTKDguy]

At first sight don't like the odds but im very confident colby and bektic get the win, will most likely end up parlaying them. Khamzat should win too but id play the under rather than his ml. Cowboy vs price is gonna be a barnburner, not sure how i wanna play that one.

Like the under for the randy costa fight and maybe the over for spann vs walker too.

 

[Vitor Apologist]

It’s going to be a rough couple of months for ya on top of the losing week you just had.

Ok?

 

[GoldenWolf87]

GM3 is such a huge step up in competition. It will be interesting to see how Khamzat will be as the fight goes on. Of course he should be able to take him down, but if he gasses out after the 2nd round maybe Khamzat will shoot an ill advised takedown and GM3 will snatch that neck. How do we know how good Khamzats submission defense is or striking is? Cause his name is Dagestany sounding? I mean, Khamzat should be -300 if that.

Is this fight card going to be Fight Island? because i understand the odd markers on this but yeah -300 is much prefered then 500+ or 625 lol. The last time a fighter was this heavy in odds remember how heavy people on agapova? and Dobson was the biggest underdog to win that night?

I remember two years ago a fighter who was doing YT fight videos, he said that odds shouldn't to be heavy for favorites. Otherwise some people arent going to be betting them. -300 or lower then that is responsible. I mean this is MMA not tennis.

So still i do think the odd markers are wrong here hopefully the odds will change before next otherwise i wont be betting him all i will just bet on GM3.

In fact GM3 should have being the favorite.

 

[GoldenWolf87]

At first sight don't like the odds but im very confident colby and bektic get the win, will most likely end up parlaying them. Khamzat should win too but id play the under rather than his ml. Cowboy vs price is gonna be a barnburner, not sure how i wanna play that one.

Like the under for the randy costa fight and maybe the over for spann vs walker too.

I am Not very confident in Khamzat. I already mentioned i understand the narrative for Bektic but still even his odds i saw there are two odds that are way to high.

Look at what happened yesterday. Most Underdogs won you should not feel high of % confident.

 

[loller90278]

i'm liking niko price at -150. He hits hard enough and cerrone is shot