UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez

This card is terrible. There isn't enough tape on these fighters to make me confident in anything. Gonna be small overall and will start taping Holm/Dumont instead.

I like Hawes to keep it standing and not get TKO'd, but his line is steep. Winn could make it a sweat with that wrestling and clinch, but his cardio is probably gonna fail him in the 3rd so he HAS to win the first 2. Could be a live bet situation if Winn makes it close early.

I like Brown here to be a more complete fighter versus a still developing, mostly athletic guy. Low kicks and better cardio should help him take over with hands then likely finish in 2 or 3. Gooden is RD1 TKO or bust, IMO.

Rosa v Jackson probably goes over 2.5. I think the Jackson SUB line is so low because of club and sub. Kinda think Jackson can dictate levels and grind it out if he needs to, but Rosa put up a good show against Jaynes and made it close. Rosa's slowed a lot though so I favor Jackson who also isn't the same guy as his first UFC run.

No way could I play Gutierrez at those odds. Colares could clinch him up and grind out 2 rounds possibly from top control. I think Gutierrez evades and calf kicks to a DEC, but I can't play -250.

Elliott v Nicolau is another weird fight. Probably goes to DEC, but Elliott is so unpredictable he could get subbed off an ill advised takedown. Line seems wide and the over 2.5 is steep.

I'm not touching Romanov, but he should win.

Staropoli at -225? Nope. Might feel dumb for passing, might not.

Ontiveros showed up on 3 days notice then rocked Holland and forced him to wrestle, right? Pass.

Agapova/Mazo and Godinez/Hughes aren't worth taping, IMO. Dog or pass.

Dern doesn't chain takedowns, she just runs after the single until she gets it and uses no setup strikes. That should be enough to get Rodriguez down, but that closed guard is gonna be hard to pass and if Dern can't get it down or finish then she's getting TKO'd. FDGTD at -210 seems like a good play. Would only play Dern SUB/ITD at plus money and small. Maybe hedge Rodriguez TKO +335 with Dern ITD/SUB +110, but that's weak ROI.
 
After watching Dern pre fight interviews I am getting the impression that she has a very good camp because:
1. She recognises it’s going to be hard win and will likely bleed and get her face softened up. Gotta love that warrior mentality, not all women fighters have that and get level of aggression.
2. She had tall fighters in her camp to practice her takedown setups
3. She actually watched all of marina fights and seems to be taking her seriously. Clearly recognising it’s a dangerous fight for her and looks to be preparing a proper gameplan

on top of that you can’t scoff on the fact the she gave birth and appears to be in better shape than ever.
 
Taking Winn by default at +250…

This is a mid tier fight in the MW division. I’ll be honest, I don’t remember watching Phil Hanes fight but I do know that he has a wrestling background as well…

However, Deron Winn was a higher level wrestler then Hawes and Winn does like to wrestle in MMA. Hawes is more of a striker from what I’ve heard? If so this will be a clash of styles where Deron will be the one trying to push the grappling and Hawes will try to control the fight with the striking.

Reason why I like Winn is that I don’t see Hawes being a top 10 or top 5 dude and when he is flashing that -300 price, we have to take the underdog especially when that dog can wrestle to win 2 rounds.

The most likely outcome will probably be Hawes by decision, but don’t count Winn out on getting the dub. I cap this fight at about 60-40 with Hawes being the favorite due to his size, striking advantage, and he has a good wrestling background.

dog or pass on this one.
 
Vitor Apologist said:
Taking Winn by default at +250…

This is a mid tier fight in the MW division. I’ll be honest, I don’t remember watching Phil Hanes fight but I do know that he has a wrestling background as well…

However, Deron Winn was a higher level wrestler then Hawes and Winn does like to wrestle in MMA. Hawes is more of a striker from what I’ve heard? If so this will be a clash of styles where Deron will be the one trying to push the grappling and Hawes will try to control the fight with the striking.

Reason why I like Winn is that I don’t see Hawes being a top 10 or top 5 dude and when he is flashing that -300 price, we have to take the underdog especially when that dog can wrestle to win 2 rounds.

The most likely outcome will probably be Hawes by decision, but don’t count Winn out on getting the dub. I cap this fight at about 60-40 with Hawes being the favorite due to his size, striking advantage, and he has a good wrestling background.

dog or pass on this one.
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Winns only chance of winning is a KO plain and simple. His takedowns are in effective as he can’t keep bigger guys down long enough to land significant strikes
 
Al Tair said:
After watching Dern pre fight interviews I am getting the impression that she has a very good camp because:
1. She recognises it’s going to be hard win and will likely bleed and get her face softened up. Gotta love that warrior mentality, not all women fighters have that and get level of aggression.
2. She had tall fighters in her camp to practice her takedown setups
3. She actually watched all of marina fights and seems to be taking her seriously. Clearly recognising it’s a dangerous fight for her and looks to be preparing a proper gameplan

on top of that you can’t scoff on the fact the she gave birth and appears to be in better shape than ever.
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Yep. If a grappler needs to get the fight to the mat but is petrified of getting hit on the way in, they end up standing outside getting picked apart. Dern won't do that. She will fight her way inside and eat some shots to get ahold of Marina. And I really do think she may only need one takedown.
 
Could be a dog card... But could also just be another juice does what it's supposed to do card

Last 3 events combined only 7 dogs have won, but that might be more because the UFC are just knocking these trash events together and having whoever fight whoever
 
2020Tracked said:
Could be a dog card... But could also just be another juice does what it's supposed to do card

Last 3 events combined only 7 dogs have won, but that might be more because the UFC are just knocking these trash events together and having whoever fight whoever
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I lean towards it being another juice does what it's supposed to do card, there's a few favourites I like the looks of, especially Mazo, Romanov and Nicolau, Leaning towards Dern in the ME and Gooden/Brown ITD seems like a good play to me.
 
mkess101 said:
The gap in striking probably WAS as wide previously, but while there's still a fairly wide gap, I'd argue that Dern's recent improvements have narrowed it a little anyway. And Dern is pretty clearly the best female grappler in WMMA, so I think the grappling gap is much wider. Dern hasn't subbed everyone, but she's utterly dominated everyone she's been on the mat with aside from when she tired a bit. Which I know was your point to a degree ( that she may tire again), but again we have to look at the fact she's actually training seriously now.

I think IF Dern gets Marina down (not a guarantee but likely imo) you are going to see exactly how she's simply on another planet with her grappling than Marina is. Marina will likely get the better of the striking, I agree on that. But she has to be almost perfect early on to stay upright or she's going to be drowning in the mat.
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She still has sloppy striking, she is one of those grapplers that looks at the ground and throws overhands into clinch position.

Another thing that i forgot to mention is how muay thai oriented Marina is, she has a nice clinch knee and thai boxing grappling. I think Dern is going to eat a lot of knees to the body and gas out. Include the draws into marina's record and she has far more cage time experience than Dern, The value side is on her, but i dont fault no one who picks Dern, I could be eating my words on saturday.
 
Doggo_Stat_Collector said:
She still has sloppy striking, she is one of those grapplers that looks at the ground and throws overhands into clinch position.

Another thing that i forgot to mention is how muay thai oriented Marina is, she has a nice clinch knee and thai boxing grappling. I think Dern is going to eat a lot of knees to the body and gas out. Include the draws into marina's record and she has far more cage time experience than Dern, The value side is on her, but i dont fault no one who picks Dern, I could be eating my words on saturday.
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Dern's striking is still a bit sloppy, but it's improving a ton fight to fight. And she doesn't need to be perfect or make zero mistakes in the standup. Marina isn't going to one-shot KO Dern the first time Dern overcommits and leaves her chin exposed. I guess that's why I favor Dern so heavily...I think Marina may actually need to be perfect with her TDD. Maybe she survives one go round on the mat...maybe. But I tend to doubt it unless it's right near the end of a round. Marina can try to close up her guard and tie Dern up, but most likely Dern will inch her way to a dominant position and have Marina in trouble pretty quickly. I'd argue Nunes, Markos, and maybe even Cifers are better grapplers than Marina and Dern disposed of them easily on the mat recently. None had a prayer of surviving, can't see why Marina would if she's taken down. I actually think the value is on Dern where the line is. I'd cap her -250ish here. Marina can win, sure, if the fight plays out just as she needs it to. I wouldn't bet massive amounts on Dern. But she **should** win, and I think the line is actually too narrow.
 
mkess101 said:
Dern's striking is still a bit sloppy, but it's improving a ton fight to fight. And she doesn't need to be perfect or make zero mistakes in the standup. Marina isn't going to one-shot KO Dern the first time Dern overcommits and leaves her chin exposed. I guess that's why I favor Dern so heavily...I think Marina may actually need to be perfect with her TDD. Maybe she survives one go round on the mat...maybe. But I tend to doubt it unless it's right near the end of a round. Marina can try to close up her guard and tie Dern up, but most likely Dern will inch her way to a dominant position and have Marina in trouble pretty quickly. I'd argue Nunes, Markos, and maybe even Cifers are better grapplers than Marina and Dern disposed of them easily on the mat recently. None had a prayer of surviving, can't see why Marina would if she's taken down. I actually think the value is on Dern where the line is. I'd cap her -250ish here. Marina can win, sure, if the fight plays out just as she needs it to. I wouldn't bet massive amounts on Dern. But she **should** win, and I think the line is actually too narrow.
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Women just aren’t one shot koing each other, especially not marina. Getting a ko in general is pretty rare in wmma.

dern has showed she has grit and can take a punch and has consistently improved from fight to fight since her return from pregnancy

max bet for me in this spot. Playing rd 1 sub as well
 
Vitor Apologist said:
https://www.mmamania.com/2021/7/4/2...icked-out-of-att-for-drug-use-violent-threats


Mazo is the side?
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she's always been the side imo and i've been moderately interested in various finish props too. agapova has sus cardio and durability to me and mazo has huge volume edge, prob the better grappler too. i could see her pouring it on late in the 2nd stanza of the fight and getting a tko tbh or get on top of an exhausted agapova in a scramble to sub her. that dobson fight was a crimson red flag can't be ignored.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
she's always been the side imo and i've been moderately interested in various finish props too. agapova has sus cardio and durability to me and mazo has huge volume edge, prob the better grappler too. i could see her pouring it on late in the 2nd stanza of the fight and getting a tko tbh or get on top of an exhausted agapova in a scramble to sub her. that dobson fight was a crimson red flag can't be ignored.
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Yeah, Mazo itd could be worth some dough. Probably boots her in the head in the third and then finishes her.
 
Sprinkling Dern KO +1400.

Unlikely, as she usually commits to subs on the ground. But if she can flatten Marina out, and land some ground and pound if the sub isn't there, it's possible.

One of the reasons I've been profitable this year is spotting lines that are wide. Not many people use the sportsbook apps I use for MMA in my state, it's one of the least bet sports here, I actually just read an article about it.

I've hit a lot of long shots this year, and if I'm wrong, I lose small. If I'm right, I win big.

I threw a mere $50 on Robbie Ray to win the AL Cy Young @ +8000 during all star weekend. He's the frontrunner now @ -500.
 
InTheCut said:

check this thread out, from earlier in the year
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Damn she is messed up. It is sad really you dont know how much getting punched in the head contributes to her mental state. I can't imagine that she trained very well being in such mental state. Mazo is the clear bet here...
 
Initially said:
Sprinkling Dern KO +1400.

Unlikely, as she usually commits to subs on the ground. But if she can flatten Marina out, and land some ground and pound if the sub isn't there, it's possible.

One of the reasons I've been profitable this year is spotting lines that are wide. Not many people use the sportsbook apps I use for MMA in my state, it's one of the least bet sports here, I actually just read an article about it.

I've hit a lot of long shots this year, and if I'm wrong, I lose small. If I'm right, I win big.

I threw a mere $50 on Robbie Ray to win the AL Cy Young @ +8000 during all star weekend. He's the frontrunner now @ -500.
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This looks like you copy/pasted my post #35 in this thread about Dern KO haha. (I know you didn't, you probably didn't even see it, but you kinda repeated EXACTLY what I said LOL.)
 
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