UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2, September 16

[EndlessCritic]

Was thinking how I want to have my action on Jasudavicius/Cortez... literally nothing looking remotely appealing... until: Fight goes to split/majority decision: +195.


I'm not saying this is some fantastic play, but I do see value. It is highly probable that this is a close fight which goes to a decision.

 

[EndlessCritic]

Someone want to explain how kyle nelson doesn't have clear value at +200? He's coming off arguably the best performance of his career.

Notwithstanding that he was winless in his prior 3 fights (and should have lost the Choi fight), he won a round in all 3 of those fights.

 

[fedortips]

Was thinking how I want to have my action on Jasudavicius/Cortez... literally nothing looking remotely appealing... until: Fight goes to split/majority decision: +195.


I'm not saying this is some fantastic play, but I do see value. It is highly probable that this is a close fight which goes to a decision.

+195 is not a value to bet on split decision

 

[EndlessCritic]

+195 is not a value to bet on split decision

Fight going to a decision is -400 (ie: 80% implied odds).

It is also extremely likely it's a close fight.

If you agree with the -400 decision line, and think it's equally likely to be a unanimous vs split decision, then +195 has value.

 

[Psychojoe86]

Ended up taking lots of underdogs main card, going with grasso, Holland, Mitchell, and giagos

-shevchenko has been declining I believe and she’s getting older
-JDM is good but Holland will be physically advantaged in this one
-rosas is way too young to be such a huge fav
-zellhuber broke my parlays in his ufc debut and isn’t doing much to wow so far

we’ll see how it all goes down but if all 4 underdogs hit I’m gonna celebrate lol

 

[SolarSeiko]

I gotta toss cash on grasso. That last fight shev showed really bad fight iq. The spinning kick needs to stop. She's most likely peaked. But it's wmma... Shev could throw a fuckin spinning heel kick and land a KO 14 seconds in.

 

[Don Sharpe]

Daniel Zellhuber (13-1) Vs Christos Giagos (20-10)

In what promises to be an exciting match up we have an upcoming prospect facing off against a UFC veteran.

Zellhuber holds a significant height and reach advantage over Giagos and is the younger fighter by 9 years.

While Zellhuber has garnered substantial hype leading into this bout, I personally have reservations.

He boasts a record of 2-1 in his last three fights, all of which went to decision, and he has yet to demonstrate the ability to finish opponents at the highest level of the sport.

Giagos, on the other hand, has twice the number of professional fights compared to Zellhuber and can be best described as a fighter who often goes for the kill or gets killed.

Although Giagos's 10 losses may seem daunting at first glance, a closer look reveals that they aren't as unfavorable as they appear.

In his second stint with the UFC he has lost to Thiagos Moises, Arman Tsarukyan, Drakker Klose & Charles Oliveira. All of whom are highly skilled.

I believe Giagos veteran experience will make him very live for this fight and I will be backing him.

Pick: Christos Giagos ML (+211)

 

[Don Sharpe]

 

[EndlessCritic]

Daniel Zellhuber (13-1) Vs Christos Giagos (20-10)

In what promises to be an exciting match up we have an upcoming prospect facing off against a UFC veteran.

Zellhuber holds a significant height and reach advantage over Giagos and is the younger fighter by 9 years.

While Zellhuber has garnered substantial hype leading into this bout, I personally have reservations.

He boasts a record of 2-1 in his last three fights, all of which went to decision, and he has yet to demonstrate the ability to finish opponents at the highest level of the sport.

Giagos, on the other hand, has twice the number of professional fights compared to Zellhuber and can be best described as a fighter who often goes for the kill or gets killed.

Although Giagos's 10 losses may seem daunting at first glance, a closer look reveals that they aren't as unfavorable as they appear.

In his second stint with the UFC he has lost to Thiagos Moises, Arman Tsarukyan, Drakker Klose & Charles Oliveira. All of whom are highly skilled.

I believe Giagos veteran experience will make him very live for this fight and I will be backing him.

Pick: Christos Giagos ML (+211)

Zellhuber got a bizarre hypetrain for coming back against Almeida on DWCS after getting beaten up in rd1. He was given an absolute gimme opponent in his debut against Ogden, and managed to fail that test spectacularly. Beating Vannata in 2023 doesn't mean a whole lot.

I really don't understand who's laying the chalk here on Zellhuber.

 

[Bakayoko]

You’re way off. Terrence hits hard and has good takedown defense. He’s active off his back and has fast hand speed. Not to mention he’s much more developed and experienced. Rosas should be like -174 but only due to hype. He’s also way bigger and longer reach

Yeah,for Alaskan regionals.He's not full time,he has a side job.He has half a round cardio and that's when he probably gets chocked out.

 

[Guld]

Decided to rewatch Grasso vs Shev 1.
Shev struggled HARD to land anything significant when standing (a few good jabs, and a nice elbow on a break, but that's about it.)
For the most part she was getting outstruck soundly. Her kicks were out of range, and glancing at best, for every good jab she landed Grasso would land a better 1-2 combo, and she didn't work the body at all.
That was why she started pushing the takedown game.
The problem with that is that is seems like she's a 1 trick pony down there. She knows how to go for the crucifix, and that's about it. She did a good job trying to set it up once, but once Grasso escaped you could see Shev looked defeated. Every time she took Grasso down she basically layed and prayed. VERY minimal strikes (ironically the one time she started to finally posture up and do some GnP in the 3rd they separated them because she was so inactive prior haha).
Then, she was getting stuffed hard in the fourth because Grasso had finally made the distance and TDD adjustments.
Then she looked even more defeated, ate a few more shots, gave up her back for a second and got squeezed out.
Shev might be able to make the adjustments she needs to win this, but Grasso already made the adjustments she needed last fight to prove she can win. Which is what a good champ does, adjusts in the fight and finds a way to win.
I wouldn't say I'm "super confident" in Grasso winning, but based on the rewatch it's hard not to see her as the fav.

 

[mkess101]

Decided to rewatch Grasso vs Shev 1.
Shev struggled HARD to land anything significant when standing (a few good jabs, and a nice elbow on a break, but that's about it.)
For the most part she was getting outstruck soundly. Her kicks were out of range, and glancing at best, for every good jab she landed Grasso would land a better 1-2 combo, and she didn't work the body at all.
That was why she started pushing the takedown game.
The problem with that is that is seems like she's a 1 trick pony down there. She knows how to go for the crucifix, and that's about it. She did a good job trying to set it up once, but once Grasso escaped you could see Shev looked defeated. Every time she took Grasso down she basically layed and prayed. VERY minimal strikes (ironically the one time she started to finally posture up and do some GnP in the 3rd they separated them because she was so inactive prior haha).
Then, she was getting stuffed hard in the fourth because Grasso had finally made the distance and TDD adjustments.
Then she looked even more defeated, ate a few more shots, gave up her back for a second and got squeezed out.
Shev might be able to make the adjustments she needs to win this, but Grasso already made the adjustments she needed last fight to prove she can win. Which is what a good champ does, adjusts in the fight and finds a way to win.
I wouldn't say I'm "super confident" in Grasso winning, but based on the rewatch it's hard not to see her as the fav.

I remember Grasso clearly landing the better shots standing early in the fight, but it seemed like that shifted a bit as the fight went on? In rd 4, seemed like Shev started to find her range more and was outlanding Grasso but then Shev went for that spinning kick that had Grasso instantly take her back and choke her out. Am I remembering wrong? I had Grasso ML at +600 and remember early on thinking she looked great but then started feeling like Shev was taking over both with grappling and a bit standing until the sub. Maybe I'm not remembering exactly right though.

 

[sonhow]

I remember Grasso clearly landing the better shots standing early in the fight, but it seemed like that shifted a bit as the fight went on? In rd 4, seemed like Shev started to find her range more and was outlanding Grasso but then Shev went for that spinning kick that had Grasso instantly take her back and choke her out. Am I remembering wrong? I had Grasso ML at +600 and remember early on thinking she looked great but then started feeling like Shev was taking over both with grappling and a bit standing until the sub. Maybe I'm not remembering exactly right though.

Shev was landing more in 4th but nothing too big. She was shooting so much her knees were red as fook.And she didnt get the takedowns. So you could think Alexa was hesitant on the feet because Val was shooting so much. Everytime Alexa extended Val shot. So it kinda depends how you look at it.

 

[Guld]

I remember Grasso clearly landing the better shots standing early in the fight, but it seemed like that shifted a bit as the fight went on? In rd 4, seemed like Shev started to find her range more and was outlanding Grasso but then Shev went for that spinning kick that had Grasso instantly take her back and choke her out. Am I remembering wrong? I had Grasso ML at +600 and remember early on thinking she looked great but then started feeling like Shev was taking over both with grappling and a bit standing until the sub. Maybe I'm not remembering exactly right though.

Shev's jab did start to pick up as the fight went on. But that was about the only thing she was throwing that landed. So that was a good adjustment on her side. In spite of that, the cleaner strikes were almost always in Grasso's favor.
You are also correct that the spin kick is what led to the finish.
Another thing to note, is that Rogan (and Cormier more so) were all over Shev. They kept reacting like her blocked/missed shots were landing.
By the fourth they were calling it more accurately, noting that her jab was working, but her takedowns were getting stuffed etc.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Someone want to explain how kyle nelson doesn't have clear value at +200? He's coming off arguably the best performance of his career.

Notwithstanding that he was winless in his prior 3 fights (and should have lost the Choi fight), he won a round in all 3 of those fights.

Nearly all of Nelson's MMA based skills are inferior to Padilla's. Nelson has a cage wrestling advantage, thats it, and Fernando is slick enough with his subs that he will almost certainly sub Nelson or be able to use them to quickly reverse position. Nelson is also notorious for wilting late in fights while Fernando is extremely durable and mentally resilient, he has never been finished across nearly 20 fights as a professional, while Nelson has been broken by the likes of Matt Sayles.

The betting line is more than justified imo and playable up until -300. Ironically Daniel Zellhuber, who lost a decision to Trey Ogden in his UFC debut and who couldn't finish Lando Vannata in his last fight, is currently trading at around -300 against an opponent who is better than Ogden everywhere.

 

[mkess101]

How durable is Chairez? Anyone seen his chin tested? I see he's been finished twice but both were by sub. Lacerda with 4 losses in a row...but dude has had 3 of the 4 in serious trouble in rd 1. Chairez is Mexican so my default is that he probably has a good chin LOL, but you'd think Lacerda has to be super live for rd 1 anyway. Obviously he will gas and wilt after that but he's gonna come out guns blazing and has to be dangerous for 5 minutes right?

 

[RockyLockridge]

He's fought nothing but cab drivers in Alaska, there's no way to accurately gauge his skill level going off those fights alone. Whenever he fought anyone with a pulse (KKF, Saimaan) he got finished in 1.

we're comparing rosas to kkf and saimaan now?

 

[Bakayoko]

we're comparing rosas to kkf and saimaan now?

Jay Perrin would fuck Mitchell up

 

[Tebowned]

How durable is Chairez? Anyone seen his chin tested? I see he's been finished twice but both were by sub. Lacerda with 4 losses in a row...but dude has had 3 of the 4 in serious trouble in rd 1. Chairez is Mexican so my default is that he probably has a good chin LOL, but you'd think Lacerda has to be super live for rd 1 anyway. Obviously he will gas and wilt after that but he's gonna come out guns blazing and has to be dangerous for 5 minutes right?

IDK how durable he is but he looks so big for 125 imo.