UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva

I have Cole Williams in a couple of parlays and now I'm getting col(e)d feet

To miss weight by nearly 5 pounds is a hell of a lot and I don't know how to read it to be honest

I'm sure I read a few years ago that the fighter who misses weight wins the fight like 8 out of 10 times but i doubt that's true, think that was around the time Cowboy Oli beat the shit out of Will Brooks or it may have been a Romero fight

Anyway if a Sherbrother wants to provide some insight it would be much appreciated
 
lyndon955 said:
I have Cole Williams in a couple of parlays and now I'm getting col(e)d feet

To miss weight by nearly 5 pounds is a hell of a lot and I don't know how to read it to be honest

I'm sure I read a few years ago that the fighter who misses weight wins the fight like 8 out of 10 times but i doubt that's true, think that was around the time Cowboy Oli beat the shit out of Will Brooks or it may have been a Romero fight

Anyway if a Sherbrother wants to provide some insight it would be much appreciated
Click to expand...

I think there are too many variables surrounding fighters missing weight to simply state that missing weight is either a definite pro or a con. I might be wrong but from what I remember most stats on this that I've seen don't really support either side of the argument either.
 
lyndon955 said:
I have Cole Williams in a couple of parlays and now I'm getting col(e)d feet

To miss weight by nearly 5 pounds is a hell of a lot and I don't know how to read it to be honest

I'm sure I read a few years ago that the fighter who misses weight wins the fight like 8 out of 10 times but i doubt that's true, think that was around the time Cowboy Oli beat the shit out of Will Brooks or it may have been a Romero fight

Anyway if a Sherbrother wants to provide some insight it would be much appreciated
Click to expand...
I just think the guy is not very disciplined, he hasen't fought at WW in the last 4 fights and always has fat around his mid section.
 
lyndon955 said:
I have Cole Williams in a couple of parlays and now I'm getting col(e)d feet

To miss weight by nearly 5 pounds is a hell of a lot and I don't know how to read it to be honest

I'm sure I read a few years ago that the fighter who misses weight wins the fight like 8 out of 10 times but i doubt that's true, think that was around the time Cowboy Oli beat the shit out of Will Brooks or it may have been a Romero fight

Anyway if a Sherbrother wants to provide some insight it would be much appreciated
Click to expand...
William's v Witt is the battle of fat dad bods.

I'm sorry to hear you bet on this fight
 
Wiktoruspro said:
Greg hardy still trains at ATT?
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Coulda swore he changed camps for this fight because of covid. Texas maybe??

Edit: yeah he said he couldn't bring coaches into ATT right now because of covid. Sounds like his main trainers are Rashad Evans and Din Thomas
 
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What's up fellas. Help me out with my DK lineups.

Better chance to pull the upset: Ledet or Anderson Silva?
 
mkess101 said:
What's up fellas. Help me out with my DK lineups.

Better chance to pull the upset: Ledet or Anderson Silva?
Click to expand...

I won't be surprised at all to see Silva clinch a split decision. Silva is a counter striker and Hall is a statue with long stretches of inactivity. I could see this fight being a staring match with very little action and after 5 rounds it will be unclear who won.
 
LEMONZEST said:
I won't be surprised at all to see Silva clinch a split decision. Silva is a counter striker and Hall is a statue with long stretches of inactivity. I could see this fight being a staring match with very little action and after 5 rounds it will be unclear who won.
Click to expand...

Yeah I could see that but likely that would end with not a great DK score for Silva anyway, even if he won. If Ledet wins I'd assume he has a better chance to finish and score bigger?
 
Looking at the official bets page...I cannot agree with all you guys playing Fili at near even odds (well relatively near). And I am a BIG fan of his. I thought he really turned the corner in the Miles Jury fight. His jab was amazing. His striking has improved a TON since he was younger. BUT...


...he has shown he is very confident in his ground game. His TDD is okay I guess, but he doesn't avoid scrambles, he likes to grapple. And he's not bad. But he's not on Mitchell's level. Bryce is a top tier MMA grappler. He made black belt Rosa (who's grappling is probably a tad overrated granted) look like an absolute BUM on the mat. Like, not just beat him there but did whatever he wanted except sub him. Constantly advancing, just clowning him. Looked like a bjj tourney where the clearly better guy doesn't look for the sub but is trying to score as many points as possible.

If Fili was a bigger dog, okay. And yeah, Mitchell's wrestling and ability to get the fight to the mat is somewhat a question mark if Fili truly does everything he can to avoid the grappling. But we don't know if Fili will actually use that gameplan first of all, and second of all it may literally only take 2 TD's for the fight to be a wrap. If Fili was a bigger dog, sure. He has a clear striking edge. But I see Thugnasty showing superior grappling and getting the W here.
 
ThatsFckingIllegal said:
You posted a pic where the head is forward, but Alex's head is leaning back. Just stating facts
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well that’s your fault for not understanding it’s not the head, but the hips. Alex Hernandez has anterior pelvic tilt. I’m not going to argue this with you. You clearly don’t know what I’m talking about.
 
Card said:
opponents-sean-strickland-and-jack-marshman-of-wales-face-off-during-picture-id1283060522
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Jack got that Hank Hill booty. Bet the house on sean
 
mkess101 said:
Looking at the official bets page...I cannot agree with all you guys playing Fili at near even odds (well relatively near). And I am a BIG fan of his. I thought he really turned the corner in the Miles Jury fight. His jab was amazing. His striking has improved a TON since he was younger. BUT...


...he has shown he is very confident in his ground game. His TDD is okay I guess, but he doesn't avoid scrambles, he likes to grapple. And he's not bad. But he's not on Mitchell's level. Bryce is a top tier MMA grappler. He made black belt Rosa (who's grappling is probably a tad overrated granted) look like an absolute BUM on the mat. Like, not just beat him there but did whatever he wanted except sub him. Constantly advancing, just clowning him. Looked like a bjj tourney where the clearly better guy doesn't look for the sub but is trying to score as many points as possible.

If Fili was a bigger dog, okay. And yeah, Mitchell's wrestling and ability to get the fight to the mat is somewhat a question mark if Fili truly does everything he can to avoid the grappling. But we don't know if Fili will actually use that gameplan first of all, and second of all it may literally only take 2 TD's for the fight to be a wrap. If Fili was a bigger dog, sure. He has a clear striking edge. But I see Thugnasty showing superior grappling and getting the W here.
Click to expand...
Charles Rosa is a happy meal black belt
 
Live betting strategy for tonight:
  • I'm thinking Cole could win rd 1 and gas hard so maybe betting Witt after rd 1 if the odds are good.
  • Silva will probably look great for a rd and a half before he stops fighting completely so another potential money maker there.
Anything else?
 
mkess101 said:
Looking at the official bets page...I cannot agree with all you guys playing Fili at near even odds (well relatively near). And I am a BIG fan of his. I thought he really turned the corner in the Miles Jury fight. His jab was amazing. His striking has improved a TON since he was younger. BUT...


...he has shown he is very confident in his ground game. His TDD is okay I guess, but he doesn't avoid scrambles, he likes to grapple. And he's not bad. But he's not on Mitchell's level. Bryce is a top tier MMA grappler. He made black belt Rosa (who's grappling is probably a tad overrated granted) look like an absolute BUM on the mat. Like, not just beat him there but did whatever he wanted except sub him. Constantly advancing, just clowning him. Looked like a bjj tourney where the clearly better guy doesn't look for the sub but is trying to score as many points as possible.

If Fili was a bigger dog, okay. And yeah, Mitchell's wrestling and ability to get the fight to the mat is somewhat a question mark if Fili truly does everything he can to avoid the grappling. But we don't know if Fili will actually use that gameplan first of all, and second of all it may literally only take 2 TD's for the fight to be a wrap. If Fili was a bigger dog, sure. He has a clear striking edge. But I see Thugnasty showing superior grappling and getting the W here.
Click to expand...

I watched a 21 minute interview of his that Piglord posted earlier in this thread. I usually don't gain confidence from interviews, but this one in particular I did.

He knows the threat of Mitchell's ground game, and he's not going to be careless fighting him. He trains with elite grapplers/wrestlers, has a solid ground game, and has so much more experience than Bryce. He even went as far as to say that he could sub Bryce, which I don't doubt, considering Bryce was subbed 2 years ago by someone with grappling worse than Fili's.

There's a lot of recency bias going on with Bryce. He's getting praised for his win over Rosa(and quite frankly I think that's the only reason he's the favorite), who is a legit black belt, but if you rewatch the fight, Rosa fought like a fucking IDIOT.

All of Bryce's takedowns came off of spinning back kicks, or just kicks that he'd throw at 100% and Bryce would catch them and take him down within the first 15 seconds of the round.

Fili wont load up on shots like Rosa did. He has the superior cardio, superior striking, and a ground game to match Bryce's. Is he has dominant on top as Bryce? No. But can he handle himself off of his back and get back to his feet? More than likely.

I think Fili just pieces him up on the feet, wears Bryce out, and either wins a rather dominant decision or gets a finish later on when Bryce is tired. I mean look at Bryce's resume, it's not impressive. Brad Katona submitted him 2 years ago. Has he improved a lot in 2 years? No doubt.

Does he deserve to be a -140 favorite over a veteran like Fili? Fuck no.
 
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I think Strickland ITD @ +150 has some value.

Marshman is pretty bad, came in overweight, and gasses in every single one of his fights.

Strickland taking him down and being able to choke him after some GnP is a pretty decent bet. Someone talk me out of it.
 
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