UFC Fight Night - Makhachev vs Moises

I might be retarded for betting on a 44 year old woman but despite Reneau supposedly being a gimme fight for Tate, I think she's a horrible match up. Better on the feet, more grit and good enough a grappler. Tate, in her prime, already had absolutely horrendous stand up and not the best fight IQ, what's it gonna look like after 4 year lay-off? How does Miesha win this? Her path to victory is by landing takedowns and via top control, could happen. But if that doesn't work I think she is going to get jabbed to a boring UD. Despite being 44 year old, Reneau is also in great physique.

Well Reneau did lose to Zingano in the most Miesha type way possible. Miesha might gas and get stopped from grappling and no way is she winning via sub but the win via top control is there for her.
 
Well Reneau did lose to Zingano in the most Miesha type way possible. Miesha might gas and get stopped from grappling and no way is she winning via sub but the win via top control is there for her.
The amount of TDs Miesha actually gets isn't very high, she's not a relentless wrestler. She got 3 on Zingano before getting TKOd and her best outside of that is getting 2 over 25 minutes with Holm.

Reneau's fight with Zingano was the one time she was decisively outwrestled for 15 minutes but Zingano was spamming TDs constantly, attempting 10 and getting 6. It was wrestling sure but the volume wasn't very characteristic of Tate.
 
The amount of TDs Miesha actually gets isn't very high, she's not a relentless wrestler. She got 3 on Zingano before getting TKOd and her best outside of that is getting 2 over 25 minutes with Holm.

Reneau's fight with Zingano was the one time she was decisively outwrestled for 15 minutes but Zingano was spamming TDs constantly, attempting 10 and getting 6. It was wrestling sure but the volume wasn't very characteristic of Tate.
Bro Reneau gets taken down by literally anyone who tries lol
 
I might be retarded for betting on a 44 year old woman but despite Reneau supposedly being a gimme fight for Tate, I think she's a horrible match up. Better on the feet, more grit and good enough a grappler. Tate, in her prime, already had absolutely horrendous stand up and not the best fight IQ, what's it gonna look like after 4 year lay-off? How does Miesha win this? Her path to victory is by landing takedowns and via top control, could happen. But if that doesn't work I think she is going to get jabbed to a boring UD. Despite being 44 year old, Reneau is also in great physique.
Tate's fight IQ is massively better than Reneau who seems completely thoughtless all fight until turning it on in round 3 in her wins, most of which she was losing prior. And how would that ptv for Miesha not be likely when shes going against someone who literally gets taken down by anyone who tries, no exaggeration there.
 
You're missing the point, it's questionable how much Miesha will even try.
Its for sure not though. Her grappling has always been her bread and butter. There is literally no chance she says "fuck it i'm gonna abandon what was always the best part of my game against an opponent who never stops a td"
 
Didn’t she do that against holly holm for a few rounds?
She took down Holm in round 2 and the last round where she got the finish. The only reason she wasn't able to in other rounds is cause its Holly Holm who had great footwork, was much faster than Tate, and now with the benefit of hindsight has never been easy to take down. Tate was the first one to ever do so to her.

Reneau is the complete opposite. Easy to grab, try a td and you'll get it, and hell, sometimes she'll even pull guard and just let you be on top of her
 
What was the rule change? Limiting the number of entries? I am just starting to play dk, so id like to know.

Well for starters, when DK first did MMA contests, you had to field a lineup with 5 fighters instead of 6. More often than not it was easier to pick 4 early finishers and usually 1 upset pick to round out your lineup to fit the 50K salary structure. The problem was that it didn't take long before people caught on, which led to a problem that still exists on DK today - which is there's a crap ton of ties in the larger tournaments. This really can't be fixed too much because on fight nights there's only but so many fighters from the pool to pick from. In comparison, the same doesn't happen if there's an NBA, NFL, NHL or MLB DK fantasy tournament. Lineup variation in those sports is massive, but only because the player pool is so big to choose from.

Not only that, but back then (2017), entry fees for tournaments were much higher and 1st prize was much smaller. The big tournaments today usually cost maybe around $15 but back then they were $33 or so. When I won those contests at UFC 200, the biggest tournament was the $33 entry one with first prize being maybe $10K. But I tied with several other people for 1st, cutting my winnings, same with the other 3 contest I won that night. The only contests I won sole first place in were the $3 single entry and $3 - 3 entry max.

I bring up the entry fees to make a point about why DK had to change the format to 6 fighters instead of 5. If it's easier to pick the 5 fights on a lineup, essentially all you need is a large bankroll to enter the bigger contests week after week. Your lineups won't change much outside of 1 or 2 fights and you play the same lineups most likely to win multiple times. If it works out and you get first place, the the lineups you've played multiple times in large contests tie for 1st place and freeze everyone else out of the top 10 which is where all the money is. Do this week after week and essentially you'll see it's rare anyone except for the same few people win. In fact, I saw a guy exploit this for maybe 2-3 months after I won, week after week on DK back then, which led to the format change.

Also, wrestlers in MMA DK fantasy didn't score points for control time back then, and takedowns didn't account for many points either - so strikers scored the majority of points. Having a wrestler in a lineup was pointless.

All in all, the entry fees are smaller nowadays and first prize bigger, but if so many people are playing and a lot of people all tie at the top - no one really notices in larger tournaments how slim your margin actually is to be profitable long term. You're throwing money away with no real chance week after week. Your best bet would be to play single entry tournaments in the long run.


Ya we used to have a sherdog draftkings group where on avg about 10 people would sign up per week 10$ contest winner takes all but it stopped and now since I live in vegas I still do it I just have my buddy from back home reserve the lineups Im a small baller so usually 3$ entries So i cant win alot I mainly just do it for fun though Ive won like 2 contest before for I think 250#

I have a friend do the same for me, but I don't bother unless I know I can field a solid lineup with 6 fighters in a single entry format.


Do keep in mind that Renau has largely been winless in 3 years due to girls being able to grind her out from top position or the clinch. She could win if Tate reacts poorly to getting hit with power, but it should be Miesha's fight to lose.

Tate could always take a punch though. Reneau may be better striking but she doesn't have the power that would deter Tate from implementing a wrestling game. Only Nunes had that kind of power that shocked Tate enough to make her think twice. Zingano had to almost kill Tate before the ref got involved.
 
Well for starters, when DK first did MMA contests, you had to field a lineup with 5 fighters instead of 6. More often than not it was easier to pick 4 early finishers and usually 1 upset pick to round out your lineup to fit the 50K salary structure. The problem was that it didn't take long before people caught on, which led to a problem that still exists on DK today - which is there's a crap ton of ties in the larger tournaments. This really can't be fixed too much because on fight nights there's only but so many fighters from the pool to pick from. In comparison, the same doesn't happen if there's an NBA, NFL, NHL or MLB DK fantasy tournament. Lineup variation in those sports is massive, but only because the player pool is so big to choose from.

Not only that, but back then (2017), entry fees for tournaments were much higher and 1st prize was much smaller. The big tournaments today usually cost maybe around $15 but back then they were $33 or so. When I won those contests at UFC 200, the biggest tournament was the $33 entry one with first prize being maybe $10K. But I tied with several other people for 1st, cutting my winnings, same with the other 3 contest I won that night. The only contests I won sole first place in were the $3 single entry and $3 - 3 entry max.

I bring up the entry fees to make a point about why DK had to change the format to 6 fighters instead of 5. If it's easier to pick the 5 fights on a lineup, essentially all you need is a large bankroll to enter the bigger contests week after week. Your lineups won't change much outside of 1 or 2 fights and you play the same lineups most likely to win multiple times. If it works out and you get first place, the the lineups you've played multiple times in large contests tie for 1st place and freeze everyone else out of the top 10 which is where all the money is. Do this week after week and essentially you'll see it's rare anyone except for the same few people win. In fact, I saw a guy exploit this for maybe 2-3 months after I won, week after week on DK back then, which led to the format change.

Also, wrestlers in MMA DK fantasy didn't score points for control time back then, and takedowns didn't account for many points either - so strikers scored the majority of points. Having a wrestler in a lineup was pointless.

All in all, the entry fees are smaller nowadays and first prize bigger, but if so many people are playing and a lot of people all tie at the top - no one really notices in larger tournaments how slim your margin actually is to be profitable long term. You're throwing money away with no real chance week after week. Your best bet would be to play single entry tournaments in the long run.




I have a friend do the same for me, but I don't bother unless I know I can field a solid lineup with 6 fighters in a single entry format.




Tate could always take a punch though. Reneau may be better striking but she doesn't have the power that would deter Tate from implementing a wrestling game. Only Nunes had that kind of power that shocked Tate enough to make her think twice. Zingano had to almost kill Tate before the ref got involved.

I much prefer the captain format for MMA on DK. The issue is that they leave the early prelims off those contests. I still do much better with the format, although top prizes still get chopped up. My only first place finish in this format was the Texeira vs Santos card and the top prize was $10k but was chopped to around $1300 with the ties iirc.

If they did the captain format with the entire card, it would eliminate a lot of the ties at the top. Adding 6 fighters is a huge change when you factor in all the extra combinations possible with a captain.
 
I much prefer the captain format for MMA on DK. The issue is that they leave the early prelims off those contests. I still do much better with the format, although top prizes still get chopped up. My only first place finish in this format was the Texeira vs Santos card and the top prize was $10k but was chopped to around $1300 with the ties iirc.

If they did the captain format with the entire card, it would eliminate a lot of the ties at the top. Adding 6 fighters is a huge change when you factor in all the extra combinations possible with a captain.

MIke what are your leans for this event?
 
MIke what are your leans for this event?

Haven't done a lot of study at all. Will be out of town for my kid's swim meet this weekend. I'll likely look at a few fights tonight, I'll post a few thoughts and tag you man.
 
I much prefer the captain format for MMA on DK. The issue is that they leave the early prelims off those contests. I still do much better with the format, although top prizes still get chopped up. My only first place finish in this format was the Texeira vs Santos card and the top prize was $10k but was chopped to around $1300 with the ties iirc.

If they did the captain format with the entire card, it would eliminate a lot of the ties at the top. Adding 6 fighters is a huge change when you factor in all the extra combinations possible with a captain.

The DK change to the captain format is a rip off of FanDuel's format honestly. FanDuel is better in that regard because as you mentioned, their contests include prelims. However, there are still instances in which ties do occur. Not as many as on DK, but they do occur periodically. The other thing that's interesting about FanDuel vs DK is the salary structure. DK MMA salary structure is directly correlated to opening betting odds/win % probability whereas FanDuel's structure is set up based upon points potential. FanDuel's contests for MMA is much better IMO, but also much harder to win (but again, far fewer ties).
 
The DK change to the captain format is a rip off of FanDuel's format honestly. FanDuel is better in that regard because as you mentioned, their contests include prelims. However, there are still instances in which ties do occur. Not as many as on DK, but they do occur periodically. The other thing that's interesting about FanDuel vs DK is the salary structure. DK MMA salary structure is directly correlated to opening betting odds/win % probability whereas FanDuel's structure is set up based upon points potential. FanDuel's contests for MMA is much better IMO, but also much harder to win (but again, far fewer ties).

What you pointed out about DK's salary structure is exactly why I was able to exploit it for a lot of profit for awhile because a decent % of entries didn't realize that lineup construction was about far more than picking 6 winning fighters.

That's changed of course as now most people understand how to properly construct their lineups.
 
DraftKings is complete trash for MMA if long term profitability is your goal, even after they revamped the scoring for improvement. Too much variance, too little choices especially on weeks like this w 11 fights, and too much subjectivity from the one guy who calculates stats and what counts as a knockdown, significant strike, etc

Draftkings for NFL on the other hand >>>>>>>
 
DraftKings is complete trash for MMA if long term profitability is your goal, even after they revamped the scoring for improvement. Too much variance, too little choices especially on weeks like this w 11 fights, and too much subjectivity from the one guy who calculates stats and what counts as a knockdown, significant strike, etc

Draftkings for NFL on the other hand >>>>>>>

They just have one guy calculating their stats? They don't use fightmetric or anything? They did get rid of "significant" for strikes. They now just count any strike, but it's .2 pts instead of .5

Didn't know they have one dude calculating their stats. I've done well so far with it but probably some luck involved.
 
What you pointed out about DK's salary structure is exactly why I was able to exploit it for a lot of profit for awhile because a decent % of entries didn't realize that lineup construction was about far more than picking 6 winning fighters.

That's changed of course as now most people understand how to properly construct their lineups.

True. 6 winning fighters really doesn't guarantee you to "get in the green" in those types of contests. It's still all about the point per dollar mathematical formula. That formula is king for other daily fantasy sports more so than MMA, but the point still holds here. Same goes for having the lowest drafted % player who goes performance goes boom. Winning a large contest without that player in your lineup cannot happen.

6 winning fighters, regardless of having a finishing fighter will often get you to cash in the triple up contests (well at least it used to). Triple up contests is also a very profitable way of winning money in DK MMA if you know what you're doing.
 
They just have one guy calculating their stats? They don't use fightmetric or anything? They did get rid of "significant" for strikes. They now just count any strike, but it's .2 pts instead of .5

Didn't know they have one dude calculating their stats. I've done well so far with it but probably some luck involved.
P sure they do use fightmetric but i'm p sure thats still one guy lol. Always see crying on places like twitter from the DK MMA community about what they're counting as knockdowns and sig strikes and tds etc.

Yeah the strike thing was an improvement but they still do ss too they just get you more points. So still subjective variance to a pretty high degree.
 
Some mma math for you:
Mike Perry beat Preston Parsons
D-Rod beat Perry
So D-Rod will beat Preston
Free bet for you guys :)
 
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