Just bet Boser -190. Latifi undersized at HW, plus Boser's footwork and speed edge likely makes it tough for Ilir to close distance if he wants to wrestle. And Ilir's gas tank sucks.
Boser wins this 75% of the time, maybe more.
I'm only replying to this because I like and respect you so much, but this analysis is shallow and lazy.
To begin with, Latifi's gas tank was noticeably better at heavyweight in his last fight against Derrick Lewis (one he was very close to winning, with Lewis stealing it in the final minute of the contest), since he didn't have to cut weight and heavyweights fight at a slower pace, anyways. Hell, a major reason he moved back up to heavyweight was to improve his cardio, and it was very noticeable against Lewis.
Secondly, Boser's "speed edge", if it exists, doesn't count for much, considering he was out-pointed by the slow, brain-damaged Andrei Arlovski.
I haven't fully taped the fight yet, but I can't imagine Boser at -190 being value, unless you have some inside knowledge that Latifi has drastically declined since his last outing. Boser's safe, circling, pot-shotting style just isn't one built to take advantage of Latifi's weaknesses.
Latifi can defend solidly enough, and will score with leg kicks, and possibly the odd overhand right and left hook (from southpaw, amusingly enough, perhaps confusing Boser) from time to time, and that's if we think Boser can avoid any and all takedowns. It has the makings of an even striking affair, with Boser probably landing more total strikes, but Latifi connecting on the harder ones.
And Boser's safe, defensive style won't especially stress Latifi's cardio tank, which is exactly what older fighters love, being able to fight at their own pace. Just ask Andrei Arlovski!
Boser is a risky bet not for the striking factor but because his grappling is shit.That's fair about Latifi at HW, maybe some improvement of his gas tank. But he also looked noticeably slower to me than he ever did at 205. And that was against Lewis who's if course powerful as hell but has no quickness.
Latifi also seems to become more and more predictable as fights go on. His entries are telegraphed, both to land strikes and to attempt TD's. His leg kicks are okay yeah, but him being so short puts him at a massive disadvantage in an outside striking match with a guy like Boser imo. Maybe...maybe Latifi can get some wrestling going but being undersized at HW hurts his chances there too. I tend to doubt he has much success with it and he's taking a big chance trying because that could actually really tax his gas tank.
Boser's performance vs AA is concerning a bit but man I swear Arlovski must cast some sort of spell on these younger guys that makes them fight at his "glorified sparring match" pace. How many times have we seen it over the past few years? So I will not put TOO much stock in how Boser looked there. It matters...I just don't know how much.
I don't think Boser is a world beater by an stretch but Latifi to me is a guy who couldn't really get much done at 205 so just said "Well guess I'll try HW". A decent performance vs a good HW like Lewis is something I guess, but it's hard to ever know how much Lewis cares going into any fight.
If I'm wrong...won't be the first time (or the last!) But I think Boser gets it done and maybe even makes it look easy.
UFC Vegas 28,
Saturday, June 5, 2021
#UFCVegas28
parlay +308
Tanner Boser -225
Tom Breese -230
Jordan Leavitt -230 "The Monkey King"
Mason Jones -300 "Dragon"
Yea, I’m hesitant to bet ribas at current prices. I’d have to know she will wrestle and her cardio will hold up