UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song, Sat, September 17

[theTKDguy]

I also like chidi a bit even tho gregory is a strong grappler. Sometimes fighters are unstoppable when on a streak, and chidi is getting ko's left and right. Price is good.

Cory and song should be a long fight, they are both durable and well conditioned. Cory prob takes it by points but his ml is not good enough imho. I 'll be looking for the over, prob set at 3.5 if i had to guess.

Sabatini and boser are good parlay pieces, they should both win, especially sabatini.

I like fili at first sight but it might get tricky, algeo is just as long as him and as some have said, he's got heart. Pass i think, maybe over.

Is gravely the underdog? I thought Basharat lacked in physicality when i saw him, elusive but not much power behind his strikes. This could look like slava clauss vs diakesse or i'm high af.

No tape, ofc

 

[svmr_db]

Props are starting to come out on BestFightOdds, over 4.5 @ -155 for the main event seems like a good bet it's hard to imagine either of these guys finishing the other imo:

https://www.bestfightodds.com/events/ufc-fight-night-211-2569

 

[Stat_Collector]

I also like chidi a bit even tho gregory is a strong grappler. Sometimes fighters are unstoppable when on a streak, and chidi is getting ko's left and right. Price is good.

Cory and song should be a long fight, they are both durable and well conditioned. Cory prob takes it by points but his ml is not good enough imho. I 'll be looking for the over, prob set at 3.5 if i had to guess.

Sabatini and boser are good parlay pieces, they should both win, especially sabatini.

I like fili at first sight but it might get tricky, algeo is just as long as him and as some have said, he's got heart. Pass i think, maybe over.

Is gravely the underdog? I thought Basharat lacked in physicality when i saw him, elusive but not much power behind his strikes. This could look like slava clauss vs diakesse or i'm high af.

No tape, ofc

Boser has shown weakness against grapplers. Nacimento could ground him. I actually think Basharat is a safer fight vs Gravely. Bash is well rounded and at least knows how to answer Gravely's wrestling.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Only fighters i like, passing rest.

Mccmann
Andre Barrauilt
Song yadong

all Underdogs with a good chance.

 

[Joonc]

View attachment 943196

Only fighters i like, passing rest.

Mccmann
Andre Barrauilt
Song yadong

all Underdogs with a good chance.

How do you see Marc Andre winning?

 

[B.Goetz]

IMO Song Yadong / Cory Sandhagen is 50/50. I could see Yadong backing him up all night with his superior power. The only advantage Sandhagen has is reach (and possibly BJJ), and he just got beaten by two guys with the same 67" reach as Yadong.

 

[Broe.]

IMO Song Yadong / Cory Sandhagen is 50/50. I could see Yadong backing him up all night with his superior power. The only advantage Sandhagen has is reach (and possibly BJJ), and he just got beaten by two guys with the same 67" reach as Yadong.

Reach volume and cardio

 

[Siver!]

Amedovski-Pyfer seems like an unnecessary risk.

Amedovski has been dog shit in his UFC run, but you can watch his entire pre-UFC run in about 5 minutes if you stack them up. He trashed two dudes in Bellator, one of them (Fleury) isn't a bad fighter at all - but the problem was it's 4 years ago since he beat Mané, and he's looked absolutely awful in the UFC. He didn't fight against Joseph Holmes with any confidence at all, and he's the most one-dimensional fighter I can remember. He's like a CAW, he's that bad.

He has two weapons, a right hook and a left hook.

But you've got to be realistic, and Joseph Pyfer is the hype guy from Contender Series, not some world class fighter. Amedovski is okay at getting back to his feet when taken down, but it's his jaw that's an issue. He got touched by Phillips and RIP'd, then Joseph Holmes landed a knee that sent him back to the shadow realm.

Pyfer probably isn't going to land something that kills Amedovski. He's probably going to go for an early takedown. But his stand up is basic and cautious, and for as long as it's on the feet, Amedovski can land (game over if he rocks Pyfer IMO). If Alen can get up, as well, it will be an interesting test for Pyfer.

I'd be worried for Pyfer backers that they somehow end up engaging in a brawl and Joe gets his lights turned out - especially after all the talk of being super exciting, and given that he's actually pretty hittable, and Amedovski's power is useful against taller opponents. I know, I know, basic fight science tells you Pyfer just has to use an effective jab, but that probably won't happen. He's not very good at that.

 

[mkess101]

IMO Song Yadong / Cory Sandhagen is 50/50. I could see Yadong backing him up all night with his superior power. The only advantage Sandhagen has is reach (and possibly BJJ), and he just got beaten by two guys with the same 67" reach as Yadong.

Do you think Song is in the same class as TJ (who Corey maybe should have gotten the nod against) or especially Yan?

If so, I would say betting Song at current odds is a no brainer.

I'm of the opinion that Song is at least a level below those guys, maybe a couple levels. Which is why I think the odds are about right and there's no value either way.

 

[B.Goetz]

Do you think Song is in the same class as TJ (who Corey maybe should have gotten the nod against) or especially Yan?

If so, I would say betting Song at current odds is a no brainer.

I'm of the opinion that Song is at least a level below those guys, maybe a couple levels. Which is why I think the odds are about right and there's no value either way.

I think he's at least as good as 35 year old steroid-free (?) TJ coming off a 2.5 year layoff and fighting four rounds with a tweaked knee. Not as good as Yan, who was also dropping round(s) to Sandhagen (49-46, according to the judges). Somewhere between the two. I think it will be closer than a lot of people think. Better than a 36.4% (+175) chance, anyway.

 

[Stat_Collector]

How do you see Marc Andre winning?

i dont see him winning most of the time, but i would not count him out, he went to split decision with Jotko who is a legit fighter, his losses against grapplers is noticeable but he never gets grounded for a long time, Park held him down the longest 3 mins 28 seconds, i can see him getting up from Hernandez top control and making it competitive on the feet. Anthony is not a consistent winner, if he can lose to Markuz perez, he can lose to Marc.

 

[mkess101]

I think he's at least as good as 35 year old steroid-free (?) TJ coming off a 2.5 year layoff and fighting four rounds with a tweaked knee. Not as good as Yan, who was also dropping round(s) to Sandhagen (49-46, according to the judges). Somewhere between the two. I think it will be closer than a lot of people think. Better than a 36.4% (+175) chance, anyway.

Yeah maybe. Layoffs affect guys differently, I thought TJ looked pretty damn good. Maybe not prime form (and yeah...no juice) but pretty good. Still a little better than I think Song is overall. Though maybe not by much.

Youth matters though for sure. Song is live, hard to argue otherwise. But live as in I think about 35% chance to win is reasonable.

 

[Jinx_AA]

Sandhagen doesn’t win decisions …. I think song wins - guy is a beast and underrated dark horse of the division

 

[Tebowned]

i dont see him winning most of the time, but i would not count him out, he went to split decision with Jotko who is a legit fighter, his losses against grapplers is noticeable but he never gets grounded for a long time, Park held him down the longest 3 mins 28 seconds, i can see him getting up from Hernandez top control and making it competitive on the feet. Anthony is not a consistent winner, if he can lose to Markuz perez, he can lose to Marc.

I rate Fluffy low end of middleweight. He beat Rodolfo but probably probably lost the first round 10-8.
I rate Barriault pretty low as well but happy to take his as an underdog.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I think he's at least as good as 35 year old steroid-free (?) TJ coming off a 2.5 year layoff and fighting four rounds with a tweaked knee. Not as good as Yan, who was also dropping round(s) to Sandhagen (49-46, according to the judges). Somewhere between the two. I think it will be closer than a lot of people think. Better than a 36.4% (+175) chance, anyway.

TJ looked fine in that fight and Corey arguably won. I don't think Song has done anything to prove that he's anything like in the class of TJ Dillashaw.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

i dont see him winning most of the time, but i would not count him out, he went to split decision with Jotko who is a legit fighter, his losses against grapplers is noticeable but he never gets grounded for a long time, Park held him down the longest 3 mins 28 seconds, i can see him getting up from Hernandez top control and making it competitive on the feet. Anthony is not a consistent winner, if he can lose to Markuz perez, he can lose to Marc.

Barriault usually wins on cardio imo and Hernandez was pushing the pace and getting endless mat retuns against Fremd, being able to get up over and over isn't much use if the dude just takes you down again straight away.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

I'm gonna play Denise Gomes I think, she's scrappy and she'll keep coming forward, she's bigger than Loma and I don't think she'll clinch enough to get too fucked up by her trips. I'm not sure she'll win but I don't think she'll look as big a dog as she is.

 

[Thesnake101]

Barriault usually wins on cardio imo and Hernandez was pushing the pace and getting endless mat retuns against Fremd, being able to get up over and over isn't much use if the dude just takes you down again straight away.

Will have to refresh my memory but I remember seeing Barriault have issues getting controlled in the clinch against the fence rather than on the ground, and no offense to Fremd, but I think there's worlds of difference between trying to impose your will against Marc than him.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Will have to refresh my memory but I remember seeing Barriault have issues getting controlled in the clinch against the fence rather than on the ground, and no offense to Fremd, but I think there's worlds of difference between trying to impose your will against Marc than him.

Fremd is a bit of a glass cannon but he's a decent grappler whenever I've seen him, pretty physically strong and I didn't really notice any cardio issues when he went long with Valente.

 

[2020Tracked]

Song is much more limited than guys like Yan and TJ. He has good power, speed, he's dangerous but he's more or less limited to boxing and head kicks, he's pretty linier in his attacks too. Sandhagen is much more diverse and mobile and has the 5 round experience