UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Vettori

[Sono07]

tbf Pitolo wasn't even a high school wrestler, Alvey did wrestle in hs and has a bjj brown belt, he got a draw with a sharper striker in Jung. I think that was my original reason for picking Alvey , though i do give Marquez the athletic explosive advantage, still has elements of a coin flip.


Sometimes that's all it takes.

I can see the value in knowing someone's history but those facts about the grappling are completely misleading. Stats can be alot less usefull than actually breaking down fights. Alvey doesn't use his wrestling offensive in mma at all, it is strictly defensive. He is credited with 1 takedown on I believe 6 attempts in his entire ufc run. He averages less than 1 takedown attempt for about every two fights. Alvey will not utilize a grappling attack like Pitolo even if on paper he could have in the past. Alvey has also shown little to completely no utilization of any bjj belt level either. Unlike Marquez who has more recent submission wins.

Mma grappling and mat wrestling are different. Marvin Vettori isn't nearly as good a grapple on paper as Brunson but I fully believe Marvin would wrestle fuck Brunson. Breaking down grappling transitions is part of my bread and butter.

Sometimes it only takes 1 punch. Sometimes betting on a perpetual gate keeper who only throws/knows one good punch could be a waste. The writing is on the wall for Alvey. He isn't getting any better with age and a more diverse attack from younger less shopworn fighter is all it takes. I'll side with the man who has multiple ways to win this fight over the declining underdog with the punchers chance. Better kicking game, better clinch work, and Julian is probably still the stronger fighter even with Alvey dropping to 185.

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Does Alvey suddenly pressure wrestle like Pitolo tried to? James Krause will still be in Julian's corner pushing that same finishing mentality for all 3 rounds again.

I don´t recall Alvey really pressure wrestling, he often looks like hes pushed up against the cage, very defensive. Overall hard fight, he is still fairly durable though. But i´d def lean Marquez here. Seems to have a lot pointing to him, but the value may not be there in the odds any longer.

 

[Sono07]

@OuterDrake
Here are the more relevant UFC specific grappling stats for Alvey if you are interested. His offensive grappling is nearly nonexistent, his wrestling is purely to avoid being taken down himself. 16% takedown accuracy is horrible and his average number of TD attempts and submission attempts is barely even a blip.

• TD Avg.: 0.08
• TD Acc.: 16%
• TD Def.: 82%
• Sub. Avg.: 0.1

 

[Sono07]

I don´t recall Alvey really pressure wrestling, he often looks like hes pushed up against the cage, very defensive. Overall hard fight, he is still fairly durable though. But i´d def lean Marquez here. Seems to have a lot pointing to him, but the value may not be there in the odds any longer.

Check out the grappling stats for Alvey I posted. He never initiates wrestling. I'm not crazy on Marquez especially on short notice but it's about time to fade the aging one punch/ one trick pony here in my opinion.

 

[Stat_Collector]

@OuterDrake
Here are the more relevant grappling stats for Alvey if you are interested. His offensive grappling is nearly nonexistent, his wrestling is purely to avoid being taken down himself. 16% takedown accuracy is horrible and his average number of TD attempts and submission attempts is barely even a blip.

• TD Avg.: 0.08
• TD Acc.: 16%
• TD Def.: 82%
• Sub. Avg.: 0.1

Here is the thing maybe he won't wrestle. Which is a good thing, he won't leave himself open for a sub which I don't think Marquez can pull off anyways. cancels all of Marquez grappling Imo. So what does Marquez Excel at? Kick boxing combinations, setting up his kicks with his punches. What does Alvey Excel at ? Being well rounded defensively ,exp, 3 inch reach advantage,sitting in the pocket and counter punching. While Julian is athletic and has power , Alvey has only been koed 3x in 47 fights. There is high probability of this fight going the distance. If Alvey got a draw in his last fight against a solid boxer , why will Marquez do any better job than Jung? Marquez best ko was on Phil hawes who was a green striker at the time. Other than that he hasn't secured a high rated ko or submission. Alvey has at least better wins vs Evans, Marquart and lots of combat test he can draw exp from. Then add lastly Julian coming in on short notice to fight Alvey in his best shape. Alvey has a decent shot.

 

[Sono07]

Here is the thing maybe he won't wrestle. Which is a good thing, he won't leave himself open for a sub which I don't think Marquez can pull off anyways. cancels all of Marquez grappling Imo. So what does Marquez Excel at? Kick boxing combinations, setting up his kicks with his punches. What does Alvey Excel at ? Being well rounded defensively ,exp, 3 inch reach advantage,sitting in the pocket and counter punching. While Julian is athletic and has power , Alvey has only been koed 3x in 47 fights. There is high probability of this fight going the distance. If Alvey got a draw in his last fight against a solid boxer , why will Marquez do any better job than Jung? Marquez best ko was on Phil hawes who was a green striker at the time. Other than that he hasn't secured a high rated ko or submission. Alvey has at least better wins vs Evans, Marquart and lots of combat test he can draw exp from. Then add lastly Julian coming in on short notice to fight Alvey in his best shape. Alvey has a decent shot.

It almost doesn't matter if he even tried to wrestle. Look at the stats, even if Alvey wanted to he has an 84% failure rate on his attempts. Attempting to do so would probably end in him being submitted. Low volume southpaw wrestle boxer who doesn't throw kicks or ever shoot for takedowns or submissions. What part of any of that makes Alvey well rounded? The rounded fighter here is in no way Alvey. Alvey also doesn't cancel out all of Julian's grappling. He has shown great weakness in his standing clinch work.

Who said Jung looked good in that last fight at all? Only being koed 3 times in 47 fights is cool. Until you add in that two of those KO loses were in the last 5 fights. Bet Alvey if you feel comfortable but expecting him to do something he has never done before and rating his early career may build false confidence. I can see the veteran appeal but this one trick pony is shopworn and probably on his way to be put out to pasture shortly.

 

[Stat_Collector]

It almost doesn't matter if he even tried to wrestle. Look at the stats, even if Alvey wanted to he has an 84% failure rate on his attempts. Attempting to do so would probably end in him being submitted. Low volume southpaw wrestle boxer who doesn't throw kicks or ever shoot for takedowns or submissions. What part of any of that makes Alvey well rounded? The rounded fighter here is in no way Alvey. Alvey also doesn't cancel out all of Julian's grappling. He has shown great weakness in his standing clinch work.

Who said Jung looked good in that last fight at all? Only being koed 3 times in 47 fights is cool. Until you add in that two of those KO loses were in the last 5 fights. Bet Alvey if you feel comfortable but expecting him to do something he has never done before and rating his early career may build false confidence. I can see the veteran appeal but this one trick pony is shopworn and probably on his way to be put out to pasture shortly.

I wrote defensively well wounded . I don't see Julian doing anything to Alvey in grappling, his wrestling flat out sucks. It's very possible Alvey can just sit in the pocket ,land a few combinations every few times and squeeze a decision.julian is missing key boxing techniques that Jimmy Crute and Lil nog have.

I'm saying Jung is a better boxer than Marquez .higher ko power and rating

Julian was seconds from losing to Maki Pitolo 12-6 , why is Alvey impossible?


Edit: sorry for typos. Typing on a crappy phone. Fix some typos

 

[Sono07]

I wrote defensively well wounded . I don't see Julian doing anything to Alvey in grappling, his wrestling flat out sucks. It's very possible Alvey can just sit in the pocket ,land a few combinations every few times and squeeze a decision.decisi is missing key boxing techniques that Jimmy Crute and Lil nog have.

I'm saying Jung is a better boxer than Marquez .higher ko power and rating

Julian was seconds from losing to Maki Pitolo 12-6 , why is Alvey impossible?


Edit: sorry for typos. Typing on a crappy phone. Fix some typos

Because Pitolo fought very aggressively and with a grappling heavy attack. Two things that Alvey is not known to do at all. Marquez's clinch work isn't actually that bad, he is good at landing short power shots while using a collar tie. Saying Julian's grappling flat out sucks is a bit of an under sale. Though I would say his level changes and leg attacks are nothing to write home about.

The reason Alvey probably can't just sit back and win with a few combos is because he doesn't really throw his strikes in combination at all anymore. It's not impossible for Alvey to win I just don't think the guy is UFC level anymore and Dana seems to be using him as a stepping stone for every prospect he can on Alvey's way out. I know what you mean about the typos. My phone seems to auto correct me poorly more often than not.

 

[Jordan3399]

Alvarez lost by DQ, was complete bullshit. Best case he gets it overturned to a NC but he should have been given the win. If anyone's at fault it's the ref.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Because Pitolo fought very aggressively and with a grappling heavy attack. Two things that Alvey is not known to do at all. Marquez's clinch work isn't actually that bad, he is good at landing short power shots while using a collar tie. Saying Julian's grappling flat out sucks is a bit of an under sale. Though I would say his level changes and leg attacks are nothing to write home about.

The reason Alvey probably can't just sit back and win with a few combos is because he doesn't really throw his strikes in combination at all anymore. It's not impossible for Alvey to win I just don't think the guy is UFC level anymore and Dana seems to be using him as a stepping stone for every prospect he can on Alvey's way out. I know what you mean about the typos. My phone seems to auto correct me poorly more often than not.

A draw against a decent prospect and a split decision with spann who is easily top 30 ranked with 20 pounds lighter and better condition than before. 19 knockouts ,full training camp vs a guy who almost lost technically to a fighter who is on his way out of the ufc. I'm gonna double down and say Sam knocks him out with that lead right hook.

I appreciate the back and fourth . I got my orange belt

 

[SolarSeiko]

I know this is the wrong thread for this, but I think maybe some fuckery was afoot tonight in One. All this late money pours in on Lapicus and DJ’s opponent. BOL graded my Alvarez action as a push.

edit: to clarify I don’t think anyone took a dive but I wonder if it wasn’t delayed

what site did u bet on to get their odds? I only found 1 site and it didnt even have props. DJ was -800. Eddie was like -175.

 

[Sono07]

A draw against a decent prospect and a split decision with spann who is easily top 30 ranked with 20 pounds lighter and better condition than before. 19 knockouts ,full training camp vs a guy who almost lost technically to a fighter who is on his way out of the ufc. I'm gonna double down and say Sam knocks him out with that lead right hook.

I appreciate the back and fourth . I got my orange belt

Spann is bad in my opinion or very inconsistent to say the least. My take on Alvey's last fight is more to do with a poor performance by Jung than anything Alvey did well. Being a foreign fighter traveling and fighters camps being restricted due to covid last year I will give Jung a pass there.

Alvey also hasn't cut to 185 since 2017. This isnt like moving from 145 to 155 or something, 20lbs is alot to cut if you aren't use to it. We saw what happened to Souza, he moved up to 205 and had a boring fight with the current champion. Then his first cut back to 185 and the guy gets meme koed by Kevin freaking Holland.

Alvey only has one KO in the past 5 years and the guy literally walked into his punches with his hands by his side, watch it if you haven't. Factoring in those KO's from outside of the UFC is just like people betting Woodley for his championship record. Purely stat based capping that willing disregards current circumstances and recent performances. I'll double down myself by saying Alvey will probably be cut from the UFC roster after Saturday night.

Knocking out a man who has proven to be durable and never been stopped is a tough ask for a guy who throws more feints than punches. Congrats on the new belt, why such low activity for such an old account though, did you forget you had the profile until recently?

 

[FimbulFightPicks]

Alvarez lost by DQ, was complete bullshit. Best case he gets it overturned to a NC but he should have been given the win. If anyone's at fault it's the ref.

I was thinking BS aswell..if that is a DQ, seems like a lot more fights should result in a DQ. Really felt like his opponent was looking for a way out and then capitalized on being able to get the DQ.
Maybe there needs to be more of this before it gets better, if it happens a lot with all these DQs maybe something will happen. Right now it seems it depends on whoever is the ref, not only with DQs but with a lot of things in mma.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Spann is bad in my opinion or very inconsistent to say the least. My take on Alvey's last fight is more to do with a poor performance by Jung than anything Alvey did well. Being a foreign fighter and fighters camps being restricted due to covid last year I will give Jung a pass there.

Alvey also hasn't cut to 185 since 2017. This isnt like moving from 145 to 155 or something, 20lbs is alot to cut if you aren't use to it. We saw what happened to Souza, he moved up to 205 and had a boring fight with the current champion. Then his first cut back to 185 and the guy gets meme koed by Kevin freaking Holland.

Alvey only has one KO in the past 5 years and the guy literally walked into his punches with his hands by his side, watch it if you haven't. Factoring in those KO's from outside of the UFC is just like people betting Woodley for his championship record. Purely stat based capping that willing disregards current circumstances and recent performances. I'll double down myself by saying Alvey will probably be cut from the UFC roster after Saturday night.

Knocking out a man who has proven to be durable and never been stopped is a tough ask for a guy who throws more feints than punches. Congrats on the new belt, why such low activity for such an old account though, did you forget you had the profile until recently?

I think woodley had run his milage already, made his money and is 38 years old .his heart wasn’t in it, there isn’t much to say really about this fight we’re going to find out saturday.

i was inactive , moved to east side boxing forum. I preferred the smaller mma community there. I came back strictly for betting. The community here is more active when it comes to betting. Needed to make some quick cash, hoping to bank on information here and hopefully start a business someday.

we should open a bellator thread it’s tomorrow. So many mismatches like last time , huge profit potential.

 

[Foghorn Leghorn]

My two cents on Alvey cutting back to 185: I don't think it will be much of an issue, though he did miss pretty badly in his last MW fight (4 lbs over).

If he's cutting back down there with some intent, which I think is probably fair, he should be more than capable.

 

[Jordan3399]

I was thinking BS aswell..if that is a DQ, seems like a lot more fights should result in a DQ. Really felt like his opponent was looking for a way out and then capitalized on being able to get the DQ.
Maybe there needs to be more of this before it gets better, if it happens a lot with all these DQs maybe something will happen. Right now it seems it depends on whoever is the ref, not only with DQs but with a lot of things in mma.

I don't see how Eddie is at fault, I'd be surprised if it's not reviewed. Lapicus pushing his chin meant he couldn't clearly see so he looked up at the ref for approval the whole time who said nothing until he had unloaded and put Lapicus away. If the ref thought it was illegal then he needed to say something immediately not wait until he could DQ Eddie.

 

[Sono07]

I think woodley had run his milage already, made his money and is 38 years old .his heart wasn’t in it, there isn’t much to say really about this fight we’re going to find out saturday.

i was inactive , moved to east side boxing forum. I preferred the smaller mma community there. I came back strictly for betting. The community here is more active when it comes to betting. Needed to make some quick cash, hoping to bank on information here and hopefully start a business someday.

we should open a bellator thread it’s tomorrow. So many mismatches like last time , huge profit potential.

I'd be down for a bellator thread they don't usually get as much activity when the ufc has cards though. I've already got money on Budd at -340 before her line exploded.

Your assessment of Woodley is probably accurate the mileage just caught up. Considering Alvey has nearly twice as many fights that is partly how I drew the comparison. Just like Shane Young a few weeks back, it's less about the age than it is the mileage/damage and wear and tear.
I started out here in the betting thread originally trying to learn more myself.

 

[Sono07]

Just a reminder incase anyone forgot like myself. This is an early card prelims start at 12pm on the east coast. I can only assume that time slot is better suited to European viewers. Take from that what you will.

Saw this in the break room at work a second ago too. Looks like we're about 2 weeks away from Italian liberation day. I thought that was interesting, viva la Italy!

 

[Stat_Collector]

I'd be down for a bellator thread they don't usually get as much activity when the ufc has cards though. I've already got money on Budd at -340 before her line exploded.

Your assessment of Woodley is probably accurate the mileage just caught up. Considering Alvey has nearly twice as many fights that is partly how I drew the comparison. Just like Shane Young a few weeks back, it's less about the age than it is the mileage/damage and wear and tear.
I started out here in the betting thread originally trying to learn more myself.

On the contrary . Alvey is facing being cut, i think he is going to come in looking for the w in anyway possible. We might even see him wrestle.

as far as julian’s Chin . He is 8-2 , his chin should be listed as ‘suspect’ as he has never faced a heavy handed hitter. I think Alvey is a good test to see if his chin can take a decent punch.

 

[Sono07]

On the contrary . Alvey is facing being cut, i think he is going to come in looking for the w in anyway possible. We might even see him wrestle.

as far as julian’s Chin . He is 8-2 , his chin should be listed as ‘suspect’ as he has never faced a heavy handed hitter. I think Alvey is a good test to see if his chin can take a decent punch.

Statistically Alvey has an 84% percent failure rate wrestling so that would probably be a poor choice in his case. Who knows maybe he is magically an entirely differnet fighter here. I don't see how Phil Hawes wouldn't be considered heavy handed though, you lost me there. Chins are considered suspect when you see a fighter struggle to take clean shots consistently, completely the opposite case here.