UFC FN 241: Barboza vs. Murphy

[PuertoRican]

Main Card (ESPN+)​
Featherweight	Edson Barboza	vs.	Lerone Murphy
Welterweight	Khaos Williams	vs.	Carlston Harris
Welterweight	Themba Gorimbo	vs.	Ramiz Brahimaj
Bantamweight	Adrian Yanez	vs.	Vinicius Salvador
Women's Strawweight	Luana Pinheiro	vs.	Angela Hill
Preliminary Card (ESPN+)​
Light Heavyweight	Oumar Sy	vs.	Tuco Tokkos
Lightweight	Victor Martinez	vs.	Tom Nolan
Women's Bantamweight	Tamires Vidal	vs.	Melissa Gatto
Middleweight	Abusupiyan Magomedov	vs.	Warlley Alves
Women's Strawweight	Piera Rodriguez	vs.	Ariane Carnelossi
Bantamweight	Alateng Heili	vs.	Kleydson Rodrigues
Women's Strawweight	Vanessa Demopoulos	vs.	Emily Ducote

 

[Macaque]

I feel like Barboza KO is live. Culibao did stun Murphy a few times throughout the fight.

 

[mkess101]

I feel like Barboza KO is live. Culibao did stun Murphy a few times throughout the fight.

Clipped him with one good punch and landed a clean knee that definitely got Lerone's attention. But Murphy dominated the fight, and Culibao is no cupcake. A different ref may well have stopped Edson/Youseff in rd1 and we wouldn't have this fight. (Was the right call not to stop it, but Edson was in massive trouble and plenty of refs jump in there).

I'm not saying Edson KO isn't always live because if he lands some spinning roundhouse or something then yeah he can KO anyone. I don't see it here though. Murphy is the real deal imo.

 

[Thesnake101]

Think Sy, Yanez and Kleydson are great value at their current odds.

 

[Macaque]

Interesting to see the Brahimaj line close in. I think Ramiz is a bum, but need to refresh my memory.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Interesting to see the Brahimaj line close in. I think Ramiz is a bum, but need to refresh my memory.

its likely the guillotine threat.

 

[Thesnake101]

Interesting to see the Brahimaj line close in. I think Ramiz is a bum, but need to refresh my memory.

It's a weird fight to cap for me. Gorimbo has seemingly found his footing in the UFC, but idk, he just feels like one of those fighters that could crumble at any moment.

Brahimaj isn't good, but he could potentially find the neck. Also don't know if Ramiz has improved since the last time he fought. Maybe a FDGTD bet or an under is worth it, but I'd have to look at the odds.

 

[Guld]

A few older Brazilian fighters have looked very impressive lately (Aldo, Ferreira) so I wouldn't be surprised if Barboza looks leveled up for this one as well.

 

[Broe.]

A few older Brazilian fighters have looked very impressive lately (Aldo, Ferreira) so I wouldn't be surprised if Barboza looks leveled up for this one as well.

Yes since USADA is gone the brazilians are on fire. I wonder why?

 

[Spath]

Yes since USADA is gone the brazilians are on fire. I wonder why?

Aldo is a legend and an all time great, no way around it. Put some hespect in his name. Ferreira piecing his opponent up and using his jiu jitsu very well has nothing to do with PEDs either.

I root for Barboza and I think he always has a chance, against pretty much anyone. He tends to load up his punches, though, and this often gets him in trouble. I expect Murphy to pressure and land straight shots, use his speed as he’s a fair bit younger. He’s certainly less worn down!

Still… War Barboza!

 

[Georges Hefner]

Post USADA era is a little tricky to bet on. It gives me a headache when I have to factor that into my capping. So many younger prospects (hype-trains) got derailed in 2024 by veterans. I forecast Barboza as likely winner because of this but it’s not just veterans. Chase Hooper looked like a different fighter too.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Murphy gives his opponents space to work and impose his pace. That's where Barboza is still unstoppable.
Excellent underdog pick.

 

[ether]

The new beed ia becoming smarter in fighting and I know Murphy can get around someone like Barboza. New dogs new tricks.

 

[mkess101]

Murphy gives his opponents space to work and impose his pace. That's where Barboza is still unstoppable.
Excellent underdog pick.

Unstoppable? Giga fought at the range and pace that Edson wanted and picked him apart and finished him.

Murphy will mix up striking and grappling and will absolutely try to make Edson uncomfortable. That also will of course give Edson chances to do what he did to Billy Q. But Murphy won't just stay in the range that Edson wants.

 

[Guld]

Post USADA era is a little tricky to bet on. It gives me a headache when I have to factor that into my capping. So many younger prospects (hype-trains) got derailed in 2024 by veterans. I forecast Barboza as likely winner because of this but it’s not just veterans. Chase Hooper looked like a different fighter too.

Despite my previous comment, I definitely don't mean to single out the Brazilians.
There is a lot of "levelling up" going on right now with fighters from all over, and I agree that it makes it hard to guess how much of a factor it plays when betting. For guys with legit foundation of skills who might have been slowing/falling off a bit physically it will likely play a more noticeable factor. I don't know if Barboza himself necessarily fell into that category because I haven't really noticed so much of a slowing/fading chin/cardio/power in him, but more so a "some fighters have followed the blueprint and know how to beat him now".

 

[sonhow]

My opinion is that Murphy is the real deal.
His ability to overcome adversity with his obvious talent gives him chances against the upper echelon of the div.

Mind you I thought Carlos was gonna get run over by the Pole last week but that was more of fade of the older, damaged fighter than because the upcoming guy was good. But I thought he had shown enough to beat Carlos just like now I think Murphy has shown enough to pack hlm against Edson.

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Unstoppable? Giga fought at the range and pace that Edson wanted and picked him apart and finished him.

Murphy will mix up striking and grappling and will absolutely try to make Edson uncomfortable. That also will of course give Edson chances to do what he did to Billy Q. But Murphy won't just stay in the range that Edson wants.

Chikadze had a volume on his side... Pace it's not just a matter of occupying the center of the cage. Murphy has far less output than Chikadze.

A moving target that constantly hits at different angles is much harder to catch. Giga use every angle to capitulate on him with a punch. Murphy is a fighter who is passive and looks for the right timing, which is quite risky for this kind of fight, very easily Barboza can finish him with accumulated damage in the later rounds.

 

[Georges Hefner]

Despite my previous comment, I definitely don't mean to single out the Brazilians.
There is a lot of "levelling up" going on right now with fighters from all over, and I agree that it makes it hard to guess how much of a factor it plays when betting. For guys with legit foundation of skills who might have been slowing/falling off a bit physically it will likely play a more noticeable factor. I don't know if Barboza himself necessarily fell into that category because I haven't really noticed so much of a slowing/fading chin/cardio/power in him, but more so a "some fighters have followed the blueprint and know how to beat him now".

Exactly Barboza is far from done. Murphys undefeated record and age difference is why he’s a slight favorite. But skillwise its not close. His wrestling is ok but Barboza has good defense. Striking wise he’s not on the level of Edson. I could see this looking similar to Aldo vs Martinez

 

[mkess101]

Chikadze had a volume on his side... Pace it's not just a matter of occupying the center of the cage. Murphy has far less output than Chikadze.

A moving target that constantly hits at different angles is much harder to catch. Giga use every angle to capitulate on him with a punch. Murphy is a fighter who is passive and looks for the right timing, which is quite risky for this kind of fight, very easily Barboza can finish him with accumulated damage in the later rounds.

Sort of, difference is that Murphy also provides a grappling threat and Giga provided none. Edson's offense is neutralized when he has to fend off persistent grappling. Thugnasty showed that. It doesn't mean Edson still can't be dangerous, but the accumulated damage scenario you're talking about goes away and it becomes a situation where Edson needs one big moment.

 

[Thesnake101]

Exactly Barboza is far from done. Murphys undefeated record and age difference is why he’s a slight favorite. But skillwise its not close. His wrestling is ok but Barboza has good defense. Striking wise he’s not on the level of Edson. I could see this looking similar to Aldo vs Martinez

I wouldn't really count on Edson being head and shoulders above Murphy on the feet, he always had bigger deficiencies standing than Aldo ever did.

Sort of, difference is that Murphy also provides a grappling threat and Giga provided none. Edson's offense is neutralized when he has to fend off persistent grappling. Thugnasty showed that. It doesn't mean Edson still can't be dangerous, but the accumulated damage scenario you're talking about goes away and it becomes a situation where Edson needs one big moment.

Beneil and Lee also showed that, and Edson did win one of those fights with just one big moment. Boils down to how durable you think Lerone is.