UFC on ESPN 14: Whittaker vs. Till

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theTKDguy said:
I'm thinking till is ko or bust here. He DOESN'T THROW VOLUME (which they value a lot in abu dhabi) . And rob isn't a wonderboy/gas type of fighter to engage in a staring fest. Rob will get aggressive if till plays the distance game, and will either land more shots to put him away/ steal rounds or get clipped by darren, reaching like he did vs izzy. Robert has shown this, to his detriment, in both izzy and romero 2 fights, he won't let you rest. It's up to till to find that counter, cause i hiiighly doubt he gets a dec. He doesn't have the physical edge here neither, so winning rounds based on clinching against the fence is unlikely as fuck too. If anything, rob might be the stronger man in the clinch.
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If the fight goes the distance its probably cause Whittaker got drawn into Tills kind of fight in which I doubt he wins a clear dec. I expect Whittaker will force action though with his blitzes and in that scenario both guys are defensively opened up a lot and I think we get a KO sooner or later.
 
theTKDguy said:
I'm thinking till is ko or bust here. He DOESN'T THROW VOLUME (which they value a lot in abu dhabi) . And rob isn't a wonderboy/gas type of fighter to engage in a staring fest. Rob will get aggressive if till plays the distance game, and will either land more shots to put him away/ steal rounds or get clipped by darren, reaching like he did vs izzy. Robert has shown this, to his detriment, in both izzy and romero 2 fights, he won't let you rest. It's up to till to find that counter, cause i hiiighly doubt he gets a dec. He doesn't have the physical edge here neither, so winning rounds based on clinching against the fence is unlikely as fuck too. If anything, rob might be the stronger man in the clinch.
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I agree about the volume issue, but at the same time I think Whittaker's offensive pressure can actually make Till more dangerous. He came into the Mas fight knowing that's a guy who will throw a lot at him, and it forced Till to be a bit more active in his pressure and throw first more often than not. Ultimately ended poorly for him, but he clipped Mas with some good shots and knocked him down early in the first. I think Till having a sense that he can't wait and dance around, but rather has to maintain pressure and nullify volume striking (while being smarter about it than the Mas fight), makes it more likely he could land the big shots here.

I don't necessarily agree with Rob being the stronger guy though. Darren's still strong at MW and probably quite a bit stronger than he was while draining himself to WW.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
Wat.

I usually don't share my plays ahead of time, but I will note that I put a modest 5.8u, my biggest bet in months, on Gustaffson at -290.

There are a lot of parallels to Tito-Liddell 3 here, where I went 12u deep. When one fighter shows THAT level of severe brain damage, with their neurons not firing properly and no longer able to execute a proper punch, takedown, or back take, and makes Aleksey Oleynik, a literal cripple with severely slow reactions and moderate brain damage himself, look like Francis N'Gannou by comparison, then you bet any remotely capable fighter against them.
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Tail this it's an absolute lock.

Definitely not just saying that cause I hit Gus at -125 early and want to freeroll hard
 
EndlessCritic said:
All of the big favorites on this card as square as fuck.

Chimaev is being completely overrated for beating Phillips.

Werdum is being underrated for coming off a tough loss to Oleinik -- who fight snothing like Gustafsson. Aside from giving away the first round (because Oleinik was going nuts), Werdum didn't even look that bad.

Castanada is a decent fighter. Wood is too pricey.

Emeev -400 is a joke. Stolze is young and athletic with good power (and yuge thighs). Emeev barely got past Sekulic.
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Werdum looked fat as fuck. He literally looked like he didn't spend 1 day training or dieting for that fight. VS Alexei who basically has always fought the same slow ass pace he always does but with SLIGHTLY better cardio this time. Alexei has absolute shit striking and Werdum looked even worse somehow.

aleksei-oleinik-fabricio-werdum-ufc-249-4.jpg
 
Jordan3399 said:
Tail this it's an absolute lock.

Definitely not just saying that cause I hit Gus at -125 early and want to freeroll hard
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Was that betfair or which Bookie? Thats crazy odds, hope it hits so it gets rewarded for you and @Broe. because thats nuts that line. Betfair seem to have some good openings. Havent seen anything like that, but youre the master at hitting early lines.
Definitely true that thats a major skill as a bettor both to hit them early but also anticipate LM.
 
FFS even Gastelum out-landed Till. Unless he gets a 1st round KO he's just gonna slow down and get smashed as the fight progresses. If an alien version of Whittaker shows up where he suddenly turns super low tempo then things would get dicey but other than that I just don't see it for Till.
 
Relative to HW being terrible and LHW being mostly terrible I thought Gus looked just as bad against Smith as Doom looked against Alexi

<{chips}>
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Relative to HW being terrible and LHW being mostly terrible I thought Gus looked just as bad against Smith as Doom looked against Alexi

<{chips}>
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Totally agree, gus was just hopping around vs Smith trying to be some kind of sniper counterpuncher or something, which just ended up hopping cluelessly around and throwing 1 strike per minute. It is like he totally forgot what made him good, or he has just become afraid to get hit. I would hesitate to bet him at -200 let alone at -400!!!!
 
FimbulFightPicks said:
Was that betfair or which Bookie? Thats crazy odds, hope it hits so it gets rewarded for you and @Broe. because thats nuts that line. Betfair seem to have some good openings. Havent seen anything like that, but youre the master at hitting early lines.
Definitely true that thats a major skill as a bettor both to hit them early but also anticipate LM.
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bet888 it was under potential fights, I totally hedged it btw, not confident in Gus at all.
 
GoatArtemLobov said:
I like Boser over Pessoa, even at -250.
I would just like to have Boser raising his left hand a bit more since Pessoa has a nice straight right hand.
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Pessoa is super heavy on his lead leg and Boser will eat it up with kicks. Even with a short turn around Boser has some big momentum and took no damage in his last fight. Don't know if he's a good straight bet but he'll be good sprinkled into some parlays.
 
Broe. said:
bet888 it was under potential fights, I totally hedged it btw, not confident in Gus at all.
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Thanks bud. I´ve been looking into that, the potential fights. Seems like a way to get a head start. Also think its good you hedged, huge bet, even if werdum looked very old, gus also terrible last time. Hope you profit.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
For Gustaffson-Werdum, or Antigulov-Craig? I assume the latter, but want to make sure.

If it's Antigulov-Craig, then I don't like the under in general, especially at minus numbers. Antigulov would either have to hit a sub, which is possible, but a little nebulous (Craig has only been subbed once, when he was very tired and beaten against Crute at the end of the fight), or else Craig would have to catch a completely tired Antigulov who couldn't clinch or drag him down anymore with a knee, which is possible but also unlikely given Craig's own cardio woes and takedown defense.
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Yea I was talking about antigulov/Craig I guess I can't get out of my head how bad antigulov's cardio has looked. As well as Craig's. I typically like unders when both men have bad cardio, mixed with antigulov's wrestling/sub chops
 
TrueAscension said:
"Masvidal 2.0" is hilarious. I'll give him this: He's been really smart about making a name for himself and branding a mezcal etc in the vein of McGregor but there's nothing impressive about the Askren or Diaz fights or even the Till fight. Short notice sure (well done for stepping up late notice and cutting weight for a pay day), but dude get straight up owned by Usman. Before those 3 fights, he's absolutely nowhere near a top level fighter. He is really, really good in interviews and is incredibly likeable though.
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Underestimating the impact of fighter with camp v fighter with no camp
 
rev0lver said:
I agree about the volume issue, but at the same time I think Whittaker's offensive pressure can actually make Till more dangerous. He came into the Mas fight knowing that's a guy who will throw a lot at him, and it forced Till to be a bit more active in his pressure and throw first more often than not. Ultimately ended poorly for him, but he clipped Mas with some good shots and knocked him down early in the first. I think Till having a sense that he can't wait and dance around, but rather has to maintain pressure and nullify volume striking (while being smarter about it than the Mas fight), makes it more likely he could land the big shots here.

I don't necessarily agree with Rob being the stronger guy though. Darren's still strong at MW and probably quite a bit stronger than he was while draining himself to WW.
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Ehh outside of the knock down that happened in the first 10 seconds Till really didn't do anything that impressive. Mas was figuring him out by the end of the round and clearly was winning the 2nd before Till got knocked out. He can say he wasn't training hard and make all the excuses in the world, but at 170 Mas wins more times than not vs Till.

And not that it will really matter too much, but Whitaker is much stronger than Till. I don't even think it's debatable. He held his own against Romero and Jacare in the strength and grappling department and I'm certain they would ragdoll Till if that was their gameplan going in. Till barely had the upper hand in the clinches he initiated against Gastelum
 
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