UFC on ESPN+ 34 Overeem vs Harris

Ige vs Barboza will be closer, as I’m fully aware Ige isn’t the level of wrestler that Khabib or Lee are, however I do think with that RAT manager of his, they wouldn’t take this fight if they didn’t know something.

Barboza has taken some beatings in his time and the blueprint has been on him for so long.. that’s without the weight cut.
Ige is decent and I could see him winning rounds 2/3 after dropping the first

anyone disagree?
Ige can't just become a solid pressure fighter cause it suits the match up. He can go forward but he has a lot of periods where he's standing in front of his opponents with his leg wide open and when he does go forward he's winging looping shots with his chin out. He has the power to hurt Barboza but if he replicates what Johnson or Tony did that would be a big change in his approach.
 
Hill still has bad cardio. Biggest chanche in her game is to finish fights and she is very good at it. But she is gonna lose if she gets taken down. Would not bet it though cuz she keeps pushing the limit.

Wtf is this advice? lol. No, bro. Just no.

Hill has gone 3 rounds plenty of times and hardly slowed down too much at all. Also had two 5 rounders with a lot of grappling and was hardly slowing at the end.

Good at finishing fights? What, because she finished Cifers recently? Before that she hadn't finished anyone in 11 fights. The Arianne finish before Cifers was a lousy doctors stoppage from a cut and Arianne was nowhere near ready to go down. Cifers is her only proper finish in the UFC, and she's had a heap of fights. She's a volume striker, high-pace decision machine.

Claudia is the one with bad cardio. She has 1-2 good rounds in here and then she's done in a high pressure fight.
 
Chikadze u2.5 at -120 is pretty appealing for a 1 day short notice fighter who is naturally smaller and can't hope to keep up in the standing department.
 
For the record, let's recall that Gadelha more than held her own striking with JJ for the first 3 rounds before tiring, beat the absolute dogshit out of Andrade striking until Andrade dominated her with wrestling and GNP

yeah, the Andrade point is a massive one for me. It's the first thing that came to mind. People only remember the mauling Andrade gave her, but forget that for the start of the fight, Claudia was way too fast and skilled for Andrade on the feet. She was lighting her up easily.

The Hill-Ansaroff fight was 2.5 years ago. And while not "outright gassing", Hill showed cardio problems against Lookboonme, her last fight 3 months ago.

I like Hill's cardio. She goes pretty hard for at least 2.5 rounds. Lookboonme was a bit unique because I remember her throwing lots of nice thai knees which might have slowed Hill down some. It was a high paced fight as well, if I remember.

Against Claudia, if it stays standing, the pace will likely be whatever Hill wants it to be. I don't expect Claudia to be so stupid to focus on striking her though.
 
Anyone familiar with Gigi's new opponent? All I saw is he's a weight class smaller and taking it on a days notice.

What type of fighter is he? If he's going to try and keep it on the feet I imagine he's going to get hurt. Can he/is he likely to come out and try to force Gigi to grapple?
 
Wtf is this advice? lol. No, bro. Just no.

Hill has gone 3 rounds plenty of times and hardly slowed down too much at all. Also had two 5 rounders with a lot of grappling and was hardly slowing at the end.

Good at finishing fights? What, because she finished Cifers recently? Before that she hadn't finished anyone in 11 fights. The Arianne finish before Cifers was a lousy doctors stoppage from a cut and Arianne was nowhere near ready to go down. Cifers is her only proper finish in the UFC, and she's had a heap of fights. She's a volume striker, high-pace decision machine.

Claudia is the one with bad cardio. She has 1-2 good rounds in here and then she's done in a high pressure fight.

lol i wrote that at 4am while drunk. But still there is some truth in it i think.
 
Ige can't just become a solid pressure fighter cause it suits the match up. He can go forward but he has a lot of periods where he's standing in front of his opponents with his leg wide open and when he does go forward he's winging looping shots with his chin out. He has the power to hurt Barboza but if he replicates what Johnson or Tony did that would be a big change in his approach.

If Ige gets on the inside I think he can out box Barboza in the pocket. He does apply some pressure too but I don't think enough to scare Barboza or force him back consistently.

For Ige to win there has to be an element of toughness and forcing himself through the kicking range, and anytime he's trying to do that there is potential for Barboza to kick his head off.
 
If Ige gets on the inside I think he can out box Barboza in the pocket. He does apply some pressure too but I don't think enough to scare Barboza or force him back consistently.

For Ige to win there has to be an element of toughness and forcing himself through the kicking range, and anytime he's trying to do that there is potential for Barboza to kick his head off.
Yeah. I like the under here a decent amount since Ige should be trying to crash the pocket constantly, and lacks the wrestling to really produce long periods of grappling stall-out IMO.
 
I actually rate Gadelha's jab better. Hill's is straight and reasonably technical, but it's slow, telegraphed, and lacks a little impact. Gadelha's has more variance, occasionally coming out as a more of a push, but sometimes as a competent jab with proper mechanics and technique that has some impact and suddenness to it.

Briefly summarizing the rest, both women have weak/flawed leg kicks, both have surprisingly solid short right hooks, and while Gadelha's left hook lacks proper rotation and is a little wide, it's still more effective than the pathetic attempt that Hill throws out.

The one area where I give Hill a definite edge is her straight right. It's fairly weak, yes, but better than Gadelha's, which is downright sloppy, as it's not straight and she throws it with a hitch from an slightly overhanded motion in a type of reaching, slapping motion.

Without getting into the nitty-gritty of footwork and defense too much, I think it's a relative bright spot for both women, and likely even overall.



Funny, I think Claudia uses feints a LOT more than Hill does since she started training with Makr Henry. Have you seen her last two fights against Ansaroff and Hill?



True on both counts, but irrelevant in this case, as Hill's own leg kicks are weak.



The Hill-Ansaroff fight was 2.5 years ago. And while not "outright gassing", Hill showed cardio problems against Lookboonme, her last fight 3 months ago.

You can argue the Ansaroff fight is irrelevant (thought I would disagree), but then you have to consider that the two really bad instances of Gadelha gassing occurred 2.5 years ago (Andrade) and 1.5 years ago (Ansaroff), too. More recently, Gadelha looked fine against Markos at a slower pace without grappling (having way more energy than Markos in round 3 as well), and it likely helps that Gadelha has lost some muscle mass.

I agree about the grappling/striking point, but Claudia is the only one of the two that would initiate grappling. So maybe a better way to put it is that Hill has better cardio relative to her style/gameplan.



For the record, let's recall that Gadelha more than held her own striking with JJ for the first 3 rounds before tiring, beat the absolute dogshit out of Andrade striking until Andrade dominated her with wrestling and GNP, and was even with Ansaroff for the first 1.5 rounds striking before gassing...and her striking has improved since those three fights.

Unfortunately, it has been a lateral move, as Gadelha's wrestling has declined over the years, too.

That's a good breakdown even if I don't agree with all of it. For example, Ansaroff was the one fight I focused on for Claudia and she didn't hold her own through 1.5 rounds striking imo. In the first she mostly did, in the second she already started to slow. In the first, she did use feints and landed her check hook nicely a few times. In the second, presumably because she was slowing already, she did almost nothing standing. In fact, Nina wasn't all the busy herself and still clearly outstruck Claudia the whole time. Oddly, you saying her wrestling has declined I'm kind of surprised at. I mean, maybe it has a little but that round 2 vs Nina, she hit a beautiful power double leg with maybe about a minute to go in the round and kept top control until the bell. Even that wasn't enough to win her the round, which drives the point home that starting in rd 2, Nina really did get the better of the striking. Claudia just didn't throw anything.

Anyway, to be fair, you taped a lot more of these two than I did (I watched 2 fights each only). There's a good chance you are making valid and accurate points on some things and I absolutely can't remember those fights (and I'm not watching anymore of these two ha ha).

It's funny that sometimes two people who both know what to look for and how to cap can see different things even if watching the same fighters. It shows there's some subjectivity involved. In this case it's kind of extra funny because neither of us are even advocating a play on either fighter. But it's still good and interesting discussion.
 
And...now I'm gonna rescind that I'm not advocating a play on Hill/Claudia. People keep steaming Claudia and Hill is probably now playable at +210. And given how unlikely it is that Hill finishes Claudia (even if Claudia is so gassed by rd 3 that she can't move, I wouldn't count on HIl being able to put her away) I would say maybe HIll decision at +290 has even more value.

I'm gonna make little plays on both. All my plays are little right now though ha ha.

Edit: this is purely a value play because odds are off imo. Gun to my head I pick Claudia. If she gets her wrestling going past Rd 1 it's probably a wrap for her. But I think Angie may be able to keep it standing long enough throughout for it to be very competitive.
 
Last edited:
Crazy that Hernandez got a win over Brendan Allen and he made so easy work of Holland, i dont think that matters, but interesting.
 
Been curbing my gambling since you know little outside factors like.. not having a job anymore
Thanks corona

but I had to have a look at odds today, and I was SHOCKED to see Reem and Ige as dogs..

Walt is a one round one punch guy and his striking isn’t even very high level, hes just a big guy, and if he lands on you, you’re in trouble, Reem chin or Hunt chin, it doesn’t matter.

Reem can just outpoint him or replicate the Rozen fight (with exception to the last ten seconds)


Ige vs Barboza will be closer, as I’m fully aware Ige isn’t the level of wrestler that Khabib or Lee are, however I do think with that RAT manager of his, they wouldn’t take this fight if they didn’t know something.

Barboza has taken some beatings in his time and the blueprint has been on him for so long.. that’s without the weight cut.
Ige is decent and I could see him winning rounds 2/3 after dropping the first

anyone disagree?
Same exact thoughts bro
 
These odds for Song Yadong - Marlon Vera are straight disrespectful to Vera.

I think odds should be flipped. Vera is a killer and nobody wants to fight him. Song Yadong was gifted the draw in his last fight.

I think Vera gets another finish and I will be betting Vera ML big

Chito sub +460. He will be aggressive with the attempts if it hits the mat.
 
These odds for Song Yadong - Marlon Vera are straight disrespectful to Vera.

I think odds should be flipped. Vera is a killer and nobody wants to fight him. Song Yadong was gifted the draw in his last fight.

I think Vera gets another finish and I will be betting Vera ML big

same. Vera is on a 5 fight finishing streak. He’s legit and underrated everywhere which is good for us.
 
1 parlay of 5 Teams
Risk: $300.76 Win: $10,872.13
Ticket # 447723620
Walt Harris
-152

Eryk Anders
+120

Darren Elkins
-130

Marlon Vera
+157

Matt Brown
+124

Hilarious. I have a 300$ parlay of almost the exact opposites in every fight lol! Except we are both on Anders, which means we both know Jotko is gonna ravage him.
 
These odds for Song Yadong - Marlon Vera are straight disrespectful to Vera.

I think odds should be flipped. Vera is a killer and nobody wants to fight him. Song Yadong was gifted the draw in his last fight.

I think Vera gets another finish and I will be betting Vera ML big

He was indeed gifted a draw but I don't think Vera can get him to the ground with ease and I like Song on the feet more. Song should be more of a -150 favorite imo.
 
yeah, the Andrade point is a massive one for me. It's the first thing that came to mind. People only remember the mauling Andrade gave her, but forget that for the start of the fight, Claudia was way too fast and skilled for Andrade on the feet. She was lighting her up easily.

Andrade makes almost every opponent look like Muhammad Ali on the feet.
 
Back
Top