UFC on ESPN 55: Nicolau vs. Perez

[Tebowned]

Chris Padilla is worst fighter who signs for UFC ever. + Short notice.

6-0 XFS red flag lol

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Chris Padilla is worst fighter who signs for UFC ever. + Short notice.

Not by a longshot.

Padilla is the better grappler and Llontop demonstrated less than adequate takedown defense on the regionals against smaller fighters.

I don't expect Padilla to ultimately win but he definitely has a path to victory and its through takedowns, control, with GNP mixed in (he has good slicing elbows).

Souza, Petrovic, or Henry are all better parlay pieces than Llontop.

 

[EndlessCritic]

I'm worried that Henry likes to grapple too much, and ends up getting his back taken by Yahya. Definitely no play for me.

I appreciate Marnic Mann sucks, but does Ketlen Souza deserve to be so wide here?

Have to play Lipski at current odds.

 

[Stat_Collector]

Too many mismatches... that is an unexpected for UFC.

Niang's cardio and stand up is laughable. Ivana is better everywhere.

Yahya is a one trick pony and is old like Buddha fighting against pretty solid well rounded fighter.

Chris Padilla is worst fighter who signs for UFC ever. + Short notice.

Padilla looks like one of those sleeper dogs that upsets the favorite.

He fights very defensive and has decent takedowns. Likes to pop the jab and keeps a decent high guard . i wouldn’t write him off completely, majority of his losses are by decision. i think there are plenty worst than him. Llontop went to split in 2021 with a 7-7 fighter and one his two losses he got subbed by an average grappler. Padilla could win with a lay-n-pray strategy . he has that kind of wrestling to control him for a few minutes. it’s not like llontop is super explosive.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I appreciate Marnic Mann sucks, but does Ketlen Souza deserve to be so wide here?

I would not play her below +500 because there is a strong chance imo that she is at both a striking and grappling deficit. She is definitely going to be outmatched on the feet, by a wide margin, and will be similarly uncomfortable to how she was in her last fight due to the speed and explosiveness of her opponent.

Souza is pretty similar imo to her last opponent and I expect a similar result. Her technique is not as good nor is she as sound defensively as Knutsson but she is significantly more dangerous and physically stronger which will present challenges of their own.

Thoughts on Silva vs Lipski anyone ?

There isn't a particularly strong reason to be bullish about either side imo.

I would not presume Lipski's getup game looks similar to how it did 3 years ago, when we have seen significant improvements in her takedown defense, just as I would not presume LIpski is a lock to win a 15 minute kickboxing match when we saw how closely she fought with Melissa Gatto.

There are too many unknowns on both sides to be meaningfully confident about either.

 

[Stat_Collector]

I would not play her below +500 because there is a strong chance imo that she is at both a striking and grappling deficit. She is definitely going to be outmatched on the feet, by a wide margin, and will be similarly uncomfortable to how she was in her last fight due to the speed and explosiveness of her opponent.

Souza is pretty similar imo to her last opponent and I expect a similar result. Her technique is not as good nor is she as sound defensively as Knutsson but she is significantly more dangerous and physically stronger which will present challenges of their own.



There isn't a particularly strong reason to be bullish about either side imo.

I would not presume Lipski's getup game looks similar to how it did 3 years ago, when we have seen significant improvements in her takedown defense, just as I would not presume LIpski is a lock to win a 15 minute kickboxing match when we saw how closely she fought with Melissa Gatto.

There are too many unknowns on both sides to be meaningfully confident about either.

she historically losses to grapplers. her last 3 opponents were just below the grappling level needed to keep her down. i dont see Karine struggling to hold her or even finish her on the ground. she is on par with Montana and shevchenko who is barely a grappler.

The last 3 girls Gatto, oneal, and JJ have decent takedowns and are perceived as grapplers but they don’t have any top pressure or submission threat . i think karine smokes her under 1.5

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

she historically losses to grapplers. her last 3 opponents were just below the grappling level needed to keep her down. i dont see Karine struggling to hold her or even finish her on the ground. she is on par with Montana and shevchenko who is barely a grappler.

The last 3 girls Gatto, oneal, and JJ have decent takedowns and are perceived as grapplers but they don’t have any top pressure or submission threat . i think karine smokes her under 1.5

You are making the error of presuming her getup game is the same as it was 3 years ago, which is the last time we saw her be put on her back, thats a faulty assumption imo given the clear gains she has made in her takedown defense.

There is no real way to be confident in either due to the unknowns on both sides. Much better spots on the card imo than betting a fight with incomplete information.

 

[Stat_Collector]

You are making the error of presuming her getup game is the same as it was 3 years ago, which is the last time we saw her be put on her back, thats a faulty assumption imo given the clear gains she has made in her takedown defense.

There is no real way to be confident in either due to the unknowns on both sides. Much better spots on the card imo than betting a fight with incomplete information.

her getup is due to lesser skilled opposition on the ground than her making leaps.

Karine is having a good run i dont see her getting derailed by Lipski. i just know from having bet her in the past. she’s not the one.

 

[Stat_Collector]

retaping lipski lasts three fights, she never got taken down, I cant find her getting back up to her feet. I've seen her stuff takedowns successfully by maintaining her balance in a few slowed doubles from Jj, and a failed hip throw here and there from Gatto. But where are the getups? Can someone reference or time stamp? i cant find her scrambling from the ground to her feet. There was a brief exchange where gatto got put on her back, but i didn't see Lipski successfully getup off the ground.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

retaping lipski lasts three fights, she never got taken down, I cant find her getting back up to her feet. I've seen her stuff takedowns successfully by maintain her balance in a few slowed doubles from Jj, and a failed hip throw here and there from Gatto. But where are the getups? Can someone reference or time stamp? i cant find her scrambling from the ground to her feet. There was a brief exchange where gatto got put on her back, but i didn't see Lipski successfully getup off the ground.

You want time stamps of Lipski, who has not been taken down in her last three fights, getting back to her feet during her last three fights?

seriously?

 

[Marko Atanasovik]

Padilla looks like one of those sleeper dogs that upsets the favorite.

He fights very defensive and has decent takedowns. Likes to pop the jab and keeps a decent high guard . i wouldn’t write him off completely, majority of his losses are by decision. i think there are plenty worst than him. Llontop went to split in 2021 with a 7-7 fighter and one his two losses he got subbed by an average grappler. Padilla could win with a lay-n-pray strategy . he has that kind if wrestling to control him for a few minutes. it’s not like llontop is super explosive.

Peruvian style is a antidote for wrestlers like Padilla. Output, basic n fundamentals, footwork, scrambles...

 

[Stat_Collector]

You want time stamps of Lipski, who has not been taken down in her last three fights, getting back to her feet during her last three fights?

seriously?

that's my point, its' rhetorical. the only footage i have is the Shevchenko and Montana fight where she looked clueless.

Maybe she could kneebar her like Luana and Karine was kneebarred before, but seems like she adopted the kneebar after she tapped to it. The only way i see Karine choking this is if she gives up her dominate positions to get subs and let her back up if she breaks free.

Tho i would say Luana had her in a tight leg lock, but fumbled it .

 

[Stat_Collector]

Peruvian style is a antidote for wrestlers like Padilla. Output, basic n fundamentals, footwork, scrambles...

i did a punt play with padilla, that line is too wide. id rate llontop -180 tops.

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

that's my point, its' rhetorical. the only footage i have is the Shevchenko and Montana fight where she looked clueless.

Maybe she could kneebar her like Luana and Karine was kneebarred before, but seems like she adopted the kneebar after she tapped to it. The only way i see Karine choking this is if she gives up her dominate positions to get subs and let her back up if she breaks free.

Tho i would say Luana had her in a tight leg lock, but fumbled it .

I would say Silva rd 1 sub is the only way I would play her. I have no interest in paying chalk for her if this fight goes 3. Lipski could also get a late finish

 

[Stat_Collector]

I would say Silva rd 1 sub is the only way I would play her. I have no interest in paying chalk for her if this fight goes 3. Lipski could also get a late finish

I think that is the likely outcome. About every person who took her down kept her down for the whole round.
Molly 2x in 2 rounds, passed her guard like butter and elbowed the shit out of her.
Joanne wood, got her in several tight sub attempts, rnc, armbar.
Montana tko /Shevchenko the same ( with an early stoppage to be fair.)
I think Karine has more than several paths is where i'm getting at.
If she takes her down in at least 2 rounds, and CTRL's her, she wins.
Subs, or tko ground and pound.
Ariane hasn't showed me any improvement that she can wiggle her way off the ground. Her best bet is that she needs a perfect takedown defense, but Karine is better than the girls she fought last, she can blast a double with good timing.

 

[rille31]

Karine could win a close striking match or even get a ko, she has more power then Lipski

Her ground is much better, she would propably win from the bottom if needed

 

[Don Sharpe]

Ryan Spann (21-9) Vs Bogdan Guskov (15-3)

We have a great match up for the co main tomorrow with two light heavyweight fighters that are sure to put on a show.

Ryan “Superman” Spann has been around the block and holds a respectable 7-4 UFC record.

His fights are almost always exciting and usually end in a finish on either side with a few decisions in between.

He is a proven finisher with 18 of his 21 wins coming via stoppage and often can steal a win with his raw strength.

Standing at 6″5 he will be the bigger man versus Uzbekistan’s Bogdan Guskov.

Bogdan “Czarevitch” Guskov is making his third walk to the octagon and currently holds a 1-1 UFC record.

He lost in his debut via submission to Volkan Oezdemir and recently picked up a huge knockout win over Zac Pauga.

He has a 100% finish rate (13 KO, 2 SUB) and is a proven knockout artist who will be a dangerous fight against anybody.

In my prediction Guskov will be the faster man and be able to control the distance well before landing some huge shots and getting another KO win.

Pick: Bogdan Guskov ML (2.45)

 

[The Disasters]

I tied with someone else for 1st in a 500 person contest for a 10K seat in the Draftkings MMA contest. Tomorrow is the playoff. This card is so hard from a DFS perspective. Hard to find people I'm really solid on. I don't play much dfs so I'm open for any thoughts.

 

[mkess101]

I tied with someone else for 1st in a 500 person contest for a 10K seat in the Draftkings MMA contest. Tomorrow is the playoff. This card is so hard from a DFS perspective. Hard to find people I'm really solid on. I don't play much dfs so I'm open for any thoughts.

Is it a gpp contest you qualified for? In other words it will have a lot of entrants? If so, there's 2 things to keep in mind imo.

First, leave some salary on the table. Not a lot, but if you spend every dollar available the odds skyrocket of you having the same lineup as a lot of other people. The key in the big gpp tourneys is to try to find a way to be a little different.

Second, take fighters with high FS upside. DK prices the fighters purely based on ML odds. But a heavily favored fighter with low finishing upside who won't get TD's won't win you a gpp. Focus on fights with a high likelihood of an early finish. You're gonna have to get at least 2 underdogs in your lineup to make the salary cap work. So you might as well focus on dogs that IF they win, they score huge. Guskov stands out. Lane would be another, if you think he has a shot.

The few gpp's I won big prizes on, the lineups all were constructed that way.

 

[sonhow]

I wanted to play Onama because how good he looked last time and Pearce shitting the bed in epic fashion vs Brito. But now that David missed weight and knowing how much of grinder Pearce is Im probably leaning in different direction. If Pearce gets flash finished again you just gotta question his heart.

I'm rooting heavy for Lipski so wont play her. But I think shes more disciplined than before and fighting with more confidence. She completely wrecked Casey who should have been stylistically bad matchup but in the end wasnt. Though I gotta say Silva is a natural finisher. She dives for sub, she usually gets it.

Shouldnt Ryan Spann be able to replicate what Volkan did to Guskov? Spann seems to have a chin at least. Does Guskov even have a gas tank to go full 15?