UFC on ESPN+: Edgar v Munhoz

Right off the bat the following stick out to me:

Amanda Lemos should run right through Mizuki Inoue and 2.37 odds are nuts

Jared Gooden at 2.39 feels wrong against an extremely inactive fighter who has had an extended layoff

Daniel Rodriguez isn't a wrestler so I can't see why he's favoured over Takashi Sato?????

Angela Hill should be WAY more heavily favoured against a Mom who doesn't appear to care about fighting anymore, feel like her 1.72 line is gonna get steamed hard
 
Oh yeah, Maki Pitolo as a dog against a Contender Series guy??? What?????

Dude lost early by sub without taking too much damage. Kasanganay has athleticism but looked fucking TIRED on the Contender Series last week and took a decent amount of damage early on. I just can't fathom this line at all
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Oh yeah, Maki Pitolo as a dog against a Contender Series guy??? What?????

Dude lost early by sub without taking too much damage. Kasanganay has athleticism but looked fucking TIRED on the Contender Series last week and took a decent amount of damage early on. I just can't fathom this line at all
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Where do you see Maki Pitolo?
 
Got 4u on Munhoz here at 1.45 bet placed long time ago, I´m suprised they didn´t change the odds when it went from a 3 rounder to a 5 rounder. Edgar has looked really old in the face, and there´s not enough data yet, but I feel we´ve seen a trend of old fighters in lower weight classes not doing well, simply too slow and weak. Munhoz hits hard too, so imo Edgar has to fight the perfect fight to a decision here, and should give plenty of time to livebet for hedging in that case. Really like what Munhoz been saying aswell, based on a recent interview. Munhoz got great submissions, good power, he´s a bit slow at times, but I don´t think edgar can submit Munhoz here, he has to point fight, and Munhoz will just need to get it right one time unless Edgar looks completely refreshed going down in weight, but doubt it. When it was a 3 rounder it looked better for him, but in a 5 round fight, hard to see him not getting clipped or submitted at one point. I feel its the same as the Holloway fight, he may look good or it may be somewhat close but ultimately its a slow but sure loss, and Edgar has seem done for a while. Think Munhoz should be more around 1.25-1.30.



Been seeing quite a lot of people talking about Pitolo line being way underrated and line should be flipped.. Pitolo/Impa fight was great, bet365 had him at like 2.62 or so he got played down as expected, got to do quite a lot of arbitrage for once with Impa so I´m happy for that fight.
 
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I like Gooden as a dog. Solid striking and submissions. Grant hasn't fought in over a year and is climbing in age. I think the guys who have fought more recently have an advantage during COVID restrictions.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Right off the bat the following stick out to me:

Amanda Lemos should run right through Mizuki Inoue and 2.37 odds are nuts

Jared Gooden at 2.39 feels wrong against an extremely inactive fighter who has had an extended layoff

Daniel Rodriguez isn't a wrestler so I can't see why he's favoured over Takashi Sato?????

Angela Hill should be WAY more heavily favoured against a Mom who doesn't appear to care about fighting anymore, feel like her 1.72 line is gonna get steamed hard
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Agreed with Sato and Hill. Lemos vs Inoue is a coin toss to me, Lemos has zero UFC experience..
 
SolarSeiko said:
Agreed with Sato and Hill. Lemos vs Inoue is a coin toss to me, Lemos has zero UFC experience..
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Yeah but Lemos looked great vs Granger. She is also naturally bigger than Inoue. She seems very well rounded to me both on the feet and the ground. She gassed horribly vs smith on very short notice and up a weightclass but looked very good for a round, it is hard to take much away from that fight obviously. But I am willing to take a flyer on Lemos. At +160 odds.
 
Broe. said:
Yeah but Lemos looked great vs Granger. She is also naturally bigger than Inoue. She seems very well rounded to me both on the feet and the ground. She gassed horribly vs smith on very short notice and up a weightclass but looked very good for a round, it is hard to take much away from that fight obviously. But I am willing to take a flyer on Lemos. At +160 odds.
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Any info on weight class? Tapology said 115 and 125. Is one fighter going up in her usual weight? Or down?
 
Big line movement against the Alaskan fighter minus
 
So far i'm liking Munhoz @-235, Menifield @-155, Hubbard @-105, and Pitolo @+125
 
Crimp_Keeper said:
Definitely putting 4 units on Munhoz here. Frankie at BW is one of the worst career moves I’ve ever seen.

I’m also putting 2 units on Hill. Waterson isn’t going to be able to keep up with Hill and Hill has looked great lately despite the robbery.
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Hill vs Waterson got pushed back to October, I believe.
 
Munhoz might send Frankie to retirement

First look: will probably fade Dwight Grant, Pitolo looks like value, Hill (but it just got pushed back), Lemos, Sato
 
Haven't looked too much into it, but i feel frankie isn't fade material yet.
 
Tirimasuperman said:
Oh yeah, Maki Pitolo as a dog against a Contender Series guy??? What?????

Dude lost early by sub without taking too much damage. Kasanganay has athleticism but looked fucking TIRED on the Contender Series last week and took a decent amount of damage early on. I just can't fathom this line at all
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I dont mind seeing or betting Pitolo as a dog agaisnt a Contender Series guy. This actually could work. If the Contender Series fighter wins then it makes since for him to be the fav, and values his reason to be a fav, however if he doesn't win then the dog wins who is a experienced fighter.
 
I am liking Mark Striegl. Striegl could finish the other guy in first/second round submission.
 
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