UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

Wiktoruspro said:
Devin Powell - Alvaro Herrera ( maybe dog wins)
Didnt analyse this fight, both are bums

Randa Markos - Nina Ansarof
Nina should put here out a decision, she has edge in stand up and training with Amanda Nunes should pay off for this fight

Dustin Ortiz - Matheu Niccolau (maybe dog wins, 30%)
Im betting here Matheu, he has good stand up, droped Smolka multiple times and Matheu has a ground game also.
Only concern is cardio but I think he should win this fight. He looked fine after such long layoff against Smolka.

John Makdesi - Ross Pearson
Makdesi will win this, Pearson should retire. John won last fight against Trujilo who would smoke Pearson.
Odds are accurate, Makdesi should win a decision.

Alexis Davis - Katlyn Chookogian
Katlyn should win a decision in Holly Holm style

Antigulov - Cutelaba (maybe Dog wins 30%)
The question is if Antigulov can take down Cutelaba, I bet Antigulov but Im not so confident now that he wins.
If Cutelaba defends the takedowns than he should smoke Antigulov
For me Antigulov 70/30

Kajan Johnson vs Islam
Not much to say, Islam will rape Kajan.
If you want to lose money than better send money to a dog shelter than bet Kajan Johnson

Hakeem Dawodu vs Austin
Hakeem will smoke Austin in stand up, last fight was a fluke and Hakeem will want to make a statement.
Dont bet the dog, better send money to a dog shelter

Jordan Mein vs Alex Morono
Im betting here Jordan, he is way experienced and is well rounded. He should win this fight against Morono who isnt a world beater.
Suprised he is the underdog here LOL

Alexander Hernandez vs OAM
Im on Hernandez, he has showed good movement and ko power. He should pull out a upset here, Im not convinced on OAM

JJ vs Tecia
JJ will smoke Tecia, dont lose money on betting the dog.. better send money on charity or dog shelter.

Jose Aldo vs Jeremy
Well I know Aldo lost 2 fights in the row against Max but I kinda favour him in this fight to win a decision.
Its a risky fight anyway because we dont know how Aldo will look like after the beating he took in the last fight...
Aldo decision or Jeremy ko (Aldo 60/40) no bet for me.

Dustin vs Eddie
I got a feeling that this time Eddie will win, he is very motivated since this is his last fight on the contract and he had his moments in their first fight too. Odds should be near evens but Im happy to bet Eddie at this odds.

Oh and I was serious with dog shelter, when winter comes Im always bringing food and so on to a dog shelter in my city, if you want lose money on dogs who wont win than better use it in a better way and help others.
Click to expand...


If you think Nicolau only has a 70% chance of winning, you are likely placing a losing bet on him (long-term) at this price. Better off to pass, IMO.
 
Sadistics said:
Brief notes on Nicolau:
BJJ black belt, grew up in Nova Uniao and has all the traits you'd expect, moved to JW after his debut. Started BJJ at 13, Brazilian national champ, brief amateur boxing experience. Excellent counter striker, phenomenal in the pocket, great eyes, deadly left hook, defensively sound, big power for a FLW. Very quick, good combos, leg kicks, cardio, NU level TDD. Great frame for FLW. Spent time at Sityodtong under Dellagrotte who was ultra impressed. Pederneiros said he'll be fighting for a title soon.

I think Nicolau is the best prospect in the division, however he's still untested against certain styles. I do have some concerns with the Ortiz match up, he won't have his usual speed advantage, can't make full use of his phenomenal pocket boxing as Ortiz will duck under and shoot, and he hasn't shown get ups the rare times he's been put on his back.
Click to expand...

He seems to be very low volume on the feet.
 
Personally, I dont quite understand the Ortiz/Nicolaus line.

Dustin Ortiz is a problem for 90% of the flyweight division and he really hasn't received his due credit.

Nicolau is a talented, yet unproven prospect.

His best win is over John Moraga who I like as a fighter, but that was essentially a staring contest.

I will likely be taking a stab at the Ortiz by decision prop.
 
Sadistics said:
Agreed about the Smolka win, I just love his overall skillset. He's the first FLW with a Nova uniao style which I think is a great fit for the weight class. I managed to get the -145 opener, wouldn't touch him at current odds
Click to expand...
I also remember he almost lost the Moraga fight due to a lack of output. Ortiz might not be great, but he does have a ton of output. Ortiz winning a fairly-questionable split wouldn't shock me.
 
I think it's a funny fact that Adriano Martins KO'd Islam Makhachev and Kajan Johnson KO'd Martins and now Islam is a +550 favourite over Johnson. I know MMA math doesn't work and Islam should be a big favourite here, but I though it was funny when watching tape. Still +550 is getting a bit out of hand I think.
 
Sadistics said:
Agreed about the Smolka win, I just love his overall skillset. He's the first FLW with a Nova uniao style which I think is a great fit for the weight class. I managed to get the -145 opener, wouldn't touch him at current odds
Click to expand...
think he has good sucess defending the takedowns?
 
I think the Aldo physical decline is being overhyped a lot. Everyone commented how the second Holloway fight was so similar to the first well surely that shows Aldo after the first beating still came back on short notice and managed to perform as good? With betting Aldo the main concern imo is his fight IQ. Everyone mentions leg kicks but the guys grappling is outstanding yet never used (see what he did to KZ) and he couldn't resist the urge to trade with Holloway which vs Stephens would be ridiculous. Still think he should get an easy enough win vs Stephens.
 
piglord said:
anyone else thinking about taking a stab on torres? she's a very legit striker, usually only gives rounds away via wrestlefuck.
Click to expand...
When has she fought a striker anywhere near the level of jj? She has pretty good boxing. That’s about it

I’ve always liked Tecia but she doesnt have anything for jj
 
TheOneTrueKing said:
he can be hurt in the footage ive seen. and gets taken down a lot, a bit too easy and back taken a lot also. i donk think you need to be a great wrestler to get him down. initial thoughts are he is too short at this price.
Click to expand...
No way he deserves to be this expensive

Arnett dec +600

Waiting for his sub line
 
ill800 said:
When has she fought a striker anywhere near the level of jj? She has pretty good boxing. That’s about it

I’ve always liked Tecia but she doesnt have anything for jj
Click to expand...
back to business as usual for jj for me.
 
Pearson was given the exact type of stand up fight he wanted by a wrestler last time out if i recall correctly. not great when you dont look good in those situations.
 
For Ukram. =) (sorry too busy to transcribe)

 
Last edited:
pearsons getting cut. hes not needed for local cards anymore, decision machine , losing streak. stand up fights but not ones you ever look forward to
 
Watching some of Dawodu's fights.

He MIGHT have enough to get by Arnett here, but he is serious fade material in the future.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,237,802
Messages
55,518,032
Members
174,807
Latest member
Mapichtli

Share this page

Back
Top