UFC on Fox 30 Alvarez vs Poirier II

Wiktoruspro said:
Never throws kicks ? rewatch his fight with Gilbert lol
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MT6ix said:
He never throws kicks? I'm on Aldo but Stephens used them to chop Melendez down.

Stephens has bad footwork, guys with good footwork and aren't stationary beat him like Moicano and Holloway who circle away and step out of range when Stephens stops and loads up to punch.
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Lol thats his only fight I didnt see.
 
Ham Socks said:
Lol thats his only fight I didnt see.
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he definitely struggled to throw kicks throughout his career, but he executed a heavy leg kick gameplan perfectly in the Giblert fight.
I'm on Aldo, but I will give credit to Jeremy for really improving over the past few years. he'd been sticking to gameplans and adapts in the middle of a fight if need be.
However Aldo has been doing that for a decade with 3 hiccups. and Jeremy isn't likely to be another... hiccup.
 
GrantSorenson said:
I saw similar comments before Aldo Holloway 2. People seem to have a hard time seeing that Aldo is shot.
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Holloway's a horrific matchup for Aldo and beats any iteration of Aldo, IMO. Aldo needs his gasbreaks, and Holloway absorbed a bunch of shots that would have been fight-enders against anybody else whilst just maintaing that insane pace. Stephens isn't throwing any 40-strike combos here, and the way Holloway beat Aldo actually supports my belief in Aldo's chin not being waxed. Main question here is going to be how much gas is in Aldo's tank against a guy that doesn't work the body, and who can't afford to take the same shots that Holloway did.

Aldo also won essentially pure-boxing matchups with Mendes and Edgar. He threw 10 legkicks in 10 mins between those two rematches, and Mendes is nothing if not a better, faster version of Stephens.
 
Lightbringer said:
Devin Powell is an absolute lock. He has a massive output, cardio, durability, and ground advantage here. He has to be worried about getting stung with a big punch for maybe 2
Minutes and then the cardio will make him cruise to an easy sub win or dominant decision. Please do yourselves a favor and take Powell moneyline and make some cash. This is as clear as they come.
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Every post I read about this fight all week says something about how they both stink and shouldn't be in the UFC, can't tell if this is sarcasm or not...
 
Gugabe said:
Holloway's a horrific matchup for Aldo and beats any iteration of Aldo, IMO. Aldo needs his gasbreaks, and Holloway absorbed a bunch of shots that would have been fight-enders against anybody else whilst just maintaing that insane pace. Stephens isn't throwing any 40-strike combos here, and the way Holloway beat Aldo actually supports my belief in Aldo's chin not being waxed. Main question here is going to be how much gas is in Aldo's tank against a guy that doesn't work the body, and who can't afford to take the same shots that Holloway did.

Aldo also won essentially pure-boxing matchups with Mendes and Edgar. He threw 10 legkicks in 10 mins between those two rematches, and Mendes is nothing if not a better, faster version of Stephens.
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Agreed Holloway always beats him but Aldo puts up a much better performance. His legs are gone. Watch the second fight again. They are usually the first thing to go. Can't fight such a static way in front of Stephens. He is going to gas and get lit up in a very serious way when Jeremy starts getting the exchanges he wants.
 
Here's a breakdown on Chookagian vs. Davis:

I think this matchup is pretty simple to understand. Davis will need to find a way to get this fight to the ground or Chookagian dances around her and picks her apart.


Chook made her UFC debut against Murphy who was absolutely relentless looking to pressure and get her mitts on Chook. Despite it being her debut and having fought professionally for only 2 years, Chook was able to fight off the TDs for 2 out of 3 rounds and pot-shot her way to a clear 29-28 decision.


In her second fight, Chookagian wasn't able to stop the much faster and stronger Liz Carmouche, who landed 4 TDs against Chook to win a split decision. Carmouche had the perfect entries to her TDs, closing distance with strikes and continuing to drive for a TD.


In her latest fight, Chook won another unanimous decision against Mara Borella. Fresh in our memories was the image of Chook punching at the air near Borella for 3 rounds and staying at distance. Though this conservative and boring performance dropped Chook's stock in the eyes of many, her ability to win the striking exchanges against Borella while fighting off multiple TD attempts showed an impressive amount of patience and dedication to the gameplan. Borella's corner was imploring her to catch kicks, close distance, and land TDs and Chook's movement and distance management left Borella absolutely flustered.


There's a lot of reasons to think that Davis will have even less success getting Chookagian down than Lauren Murphy and Mara Borella. Davis is slower and more plodding than any of Chook's prior UFC opponents. Davis is only 33, but has been fighting professionally for 11 years. She also gave birth 2 years ago. Never much of an athlete, one can imagine that all those fight years will add up soon, if they haven't already.


Davis is also not a TD artist. She has landed 2 TDs since 2015. 1 was against Sarah Kaufman where Kaufman was actually attempting a TD of her own and got reversed. The other was a kick catch which stumbled Carmouche backwards. One might be inclined to think that Davis will be catching the many kicks of kick-happy Chookagian but I don't think it's likely. First off, Chookagian won't even need to kick here to win the striking exchanges. Chook, if she does throw kicks, can throw them at the end of punch combos, which she has shown she can do in the past. Finally, Carmouche was throwing kicks at Davis in the pocket and was very off balanced doing so. Chookagian's kicks are retracted faster and are thrown at distance.


Physically, Davis isn't strong or explosive enough to force Chookagian to the ground and will need to be lucky to get it there. It may happen once in the fight, but one can't rely on Davis doing it to win 2 out of 3 rounds (especially in the 3rd round where Davis slows down a bit).


This fight should be contested mostly on the feet where Chook will have a huge striking advantage. While criticized as an air-puncher, Chook landed over 100 strikes on Irene Aldana, who is a legit striker. The fact that she committed less to her punches and kicked much less against Borella seems to have been a calculated move to avoid being taken down. Even if she tries equally hard to maintain the distance here, Davis has some of the worst striking defense in the WMMA and Chook's air punches will inevitably land on the gravity well that is Davis' face, which unfortunately for Davis shows damage as clearly as it takes damage.


Chookagian should win a clear and wide decision here. She might even finish Davis late in the fight once damage accumulates (not likely but it's "entirely possible").
 
There are 5 fight pass prelims. They always slot for 30 min a fight. Fight pass and UFC.com says the fight pass prelims start at 4pm (est) though. Wonder if they’re going to “squeeze” 5 fights in 2 hours or if there’s a mistake and it starts at 3:30.
 
zeckdo said:
There are 5 fight pass prelims. They always slot for 30 min a fight. Fight pass and UFC.com says the fight pass prelims start at 4pm (est) though. Wonder if they’re going to “squeeze” 5 fights in 2 hours or if there’s a mistake and it starts at 3:30.
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Maybe they are looking to speed up their pacing for FP prelims? Would be great if they did.
 
turbozed said:
Maybe they are looking to speed up their pacing for FP prelims? Would be great if they did.
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on some real shit, for a while i thought your location was some rural village in finland until i saw it was a joke.
 
Edole leans:
Eddie TKO
Aldo TKO
JJ Dec
OAM Dec
Mein TKO
Dawodu Dec
Makachev TKO
Cutelaba TKO
Makdessi DEC
Chook Dec
Ortiz Dec
Ansaroff Dec
Herrera TKO
 
piglord said:
on some real shit, for a while i thought your location was some rural village in finland until i saw it was a joke.
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It's a joke from Family Guy season 1, which should tell you just how old this account is haha
 
So happy with these EDDIE and Aldo odds, probably will get a reality check and lose a lot of money but still looks nice
 
GrantSorenson said:
I saw similar comments before Aldo Holloway 2. People seem to have a hard time seeing that Aldo is shot.
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I know Aldo isn’t prime Aldo no more. But if he loses you Stephens he is off the cliff.

Fuck this, I add 0.5U Aldo ML.
 
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mkess101 said:
To be fair, I don't think @Ham Socks was trying to be a dick initially. I think he's probably just maybe a bit too skeptical about the amounts some people bet. (Keep in mind, this is coming from a guy who purely does this as a hobby and bets hundreds, and not thousands). Ham Socks also does contribute to the threads, he's not here just trying to stir shit up like we've had certain people do in the past (which you rightfully pointed out have driven away good contributors). I don't think @SBJJ or @piglord would get too ruffled by someone asking to see a bet slip. I agree they damn sure don't need to post them, I just don't think they'd take big offense to the request.

I think lately we've seen a lot less bickering and unnecessary antagonism here, which benefits all of us. I'm a bit sporadic at times in how much I post, I just sometimes have too much other stuff going on to contribute as much as I'd like. That's life, gotta prioritize. Maybe when I retire I can bombard this forum with my thoughts nonstop LOL. But times when I'm here, it's so much better not having to wade through a ton of posts that are shit talking and nothing else.

Anyway, I'm just throwing my 2 cents in to try to keep the peace a bit, in hoping good contributors like you and Ham Socks don't go back and forth too much at each other. Not that you would necessarily anyway...

So tomorrow I have a charity golf outing, will miss the entire undercard with the early start time. Hoping to be home in time for the main card to at least have a chance at some live betting. I suck at golf too, but at least it's a scramble and it's for a good cause.

Makdessi dec is my big play so far. Bigger than I'd normally play a prop, but at +128 the value was huge imo (down to -103 now).
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Good call on Mak DEC.
 
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