UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs. Allen, Sat. Oct. 29

[mkess101]

Sometimes a little edge like being relatively bigger in a new weight is just the nudge that suddenly makes some asset stand out more. People only started noticing Emmet's ko power when he dropped to 145, so maybe it's more fair for the argument to only consider those fights. That would increase his ko ratio to 42%. He didn't ko Arantes, but like I said before, I distinctly remember he was physically knocking Arantes around with his punches, and that was before I had any strong perceived notions either way about his punching power. I think he hurt Burgos in the third, who might be hitteable, but is still considered pretty tanky. He also turned Michael Johnson into a stiffened corpse in the third round with one shot. Yes, MJ is an inconsistent fighter, but he across almost 40 fights he has only been ko'd by two people, Emmet and Justin Gaethje, and the JG's stoppage was more an accumulation of strikes and pure fatigue. And not finishing Ige and Katar isn't really shocking, those are just really tough and crafty fighters.



Both statements can be true, him landing a good shot, and him posessing dangerous stopping power. But my point was you already moved the fence posts from he only ko's people with overhand rights, to he only landed the perfect hook. So it sounds like you already made up your mind regardless. Which is fine, I don't really have a horse in the race, I just think the whole discussion is a bit funny.

Completely fair point about him dropping to 145. The context of this discussion was regarding whether Kattar would respect Allen's power the way he did Emmett's. I guess I would say that Kattar was still far less aggressive and showed more caution late in that fight EVEN after getting tagged by Emmett numerous times and still being right in the fight. Maybe that won't be the case with Allen, but if I was betting Kattar I would be a little nervous that it's some sort of stylistic or philosophic change with Kattar instead of just a one off deal due how he perceived his opponent's power.

 

[PuertoRican]

I'm not sure why Gore/Fremd ITD went from -225 to -172 on BAS, but I bet whatever it allowed me to bet: $124.55 for $72.24

I looked on BFO, and the ITD line is getting bet down on all books to -180.

 

[Thesnake101]

Hit Rodriguez by KO. Weems has a couple of losses by that route, and I think Christian carries more power than Fernie Garcia.

Besides, can't help but fade the durability of a guy who shares the same last name as Wayne Weems.

 

[Kaius]

Any ideas how to find over 1½ lines in 5Dimes? After a long break in betting, noticed the user interface is rewamped, and cannot find lines anymore. E.g. Means vs Griffin seems to have a over 1½ line at 5Dimes looking via fightodds.io but cannot find in real life..?

 

[B.Goetz]

Any ideas how to find over 1½ lines in 5Dimes? After a long break in betting, noticed the user interface is rewamped, and cannot find lines anymore. E.g. Means vs Griffin seems to have a over 1½ line at 5Dimes looking via fightodds.io but cannot find in real life..?

Go to the fight listing and click on the red + next to it.

 

[Kaius]

Go to the fight listing and click on the red + next to it.

Thank you, I seem to be becoming blind

 

[B.Goetz]

Thank you, I seem to be becoming blind

Sorry, you said 5Dimes. Go to Straight > Fighting > MMA Props.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I don't like much on this card but a few were interesting. I haven't seen anyone talking about Holmes/Park so I'm interested in thoughts on that one.

Holmes/Park: This is the only fight where I was really surprised by the odds and am betting accordingly. I have Holmes a very small favorite. As good as Park can be as an offensive wrestler, his defensive wrestling is really bad. Holmes also has a more energetic style and he's strong on top. I don't think Park has the power to hurt him, and my only concern would be Holmes gassing and Park taking over in the later rounds. I'll be betting Holmes and then the under smaller.

Park is the better striker and grappler, so he is justifiably a moderate favorite. I thought Park showed off good defensive wrestling in his last fight when he stuffed over 20 takedowns. The only fighters to take Park down and control were Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues whose offensive grappling I rate significantly higher than Holmes. Even if Holmes were to complete a takedown, I haven’t seen anything to make me believe he could control Park.


On the feet Park has a pretty significant advantage from my vantage point. He likes to pressure his opponents, sometimes somewhat recklessly, which Holmes has previously looked uncomfortable with. Holmes cardio also seems to drop off substantially between the first and second round which is going to be a problem against Park who can comfortably fight on the feet for three rounds.

I would be interested to know where you see Holmes winning because I think he is at a striking, grappling, and conditioning deficit. Park is easy to overlook because he doesn't have any UFC finishes but his MMA game has proven to be effective.

 

[The Disasters]

Park is the better striker and grappler, so he is justifiably a moderate favorite. I thought Park showed off good defensive wrestling in his last fight when he stuffed over 20 takedowns. The only fighters to take Park down and control were Anthony Hernandez and Gregory Rodrigues whose offensive grappling I rate significantly higher than Holmes. Even if Holmes were to complete a takedown, I haven’t seen anything to make me believe he could control Park.

On the feet Park has a pretty significant advantage from my vantage point. He likes to pressure his opponents, sometimes somewhat recklessly, which Holmes has previously looked uncomfortable with. Holmes cardio also seems to drop off substantially between the first and second round which is going to be a problem against Park who can comfortably fight on the feet for three rounds.

I would be interested to know where you see Holmes winning because I think he is at a striking, grappling, and conditioning deficit. Park is easy to overlook because he doesn't have any UFC finishes but his MMA game has proven to be effective.

I like Park and I've bet on him multiple times, and I can see why he's the favorite. If the market had this -130 or so for Park I wouldn't touch it. At -210 though...

He showed good takedown defense against Anders, but Anders has terrible takedowns. Anders does a lot with limited skill just because he's so physical but his takedowns are tackles, not wrestling. I didn't take much out of that one. Rodrigues is a very strong grappler, but his takedowns aren't anything special either. His grappling is strong but not his takedowns. He has that bjj weakness when it comes to the takedown portion of grappling, from what I've seen(flat back, reaching instead of lowering elevation, not following through, not elevating, etc.). Rodrigues also doesn't hunt submissions. He has strong control and good hips but you don't see him taking risks or attacking submissions since he'd rather maintain control and use ground and pound.

On the feet Park definitely has the advantage. He goes forward the whole fight and throws decent volume. But he doesn't hit hard, so there's not a lot of KO danger. Holmes is also very long so the reach should complicate things, a little bit at least. Against Rodrigues, who isn't known for great head movement, he took a while to get the reach figured out.

The path to victory for Holmes, imo at least, is a takedown and submission or a takedown and control, throwing in some ground and pound and sub attempts to score. Holmes has those long arms that make submissions dangerous quickly. I could see him catching something in the guillotine-family on a stuffed Park shot too. For Holmes to win he'll have to show improvement, but at this point in his career he should be showing improvement each time out. Park is as solid as they come but I think his ceiling is already here.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

I like Park and I've bet on him multiple times, and I can see why he's the favorite. If the market had this -130 or so for Park I wouldn't touch it. At -210 though...

He showed good takedown defense against Anders, but Anders has terrible takedowns. Anders does a lot with limited skill just because he's so physical but his takedowns are tackles, not wrestling. I didn't take much out of that one. Rodrigues is a very strong grappler, but his takedowns aren't anything special either. His grappling is strong but not his takedowns. He has that bjj weakness when it comes to the takedown portion of grappling, from what I've seen(flat back, reaching instead of lowering elevation, not following through, not elevating, etc.). Rodrigues also doesn't hunt submissions. He has strong control and good hips but you don't see him taking risks or attacking submissions since he'd rather maintain control and use ground and pound.

On the feet Park definitely has the advantage. He goes forward the whole fight and throws decent volume. But he doesn't hit hard, so there's not a lot of KO danger. Holmes is also very long so the reach should complicate things, a little bit at least. Against Rodrigues, who isn't known for great head movement, he took a while to get the reach figured out.

The path to victory for Holmes, imo at least, is a takedown and submission or a takedown and control, throwing in some ground and pound and sub attempts to score. Holmes has those long arms that make submissions dangerous quickly. I could see him catching something in the guillotine-family on a stuffed Park shot too. For Holmes to win he'll have to show improvement, but at this point in his career he should be showing improvement each time out. Park is as solid as they come but I think his ceiling is already here.

Park was able to build back to his feet relatively quickly during all of Hernandez's takedowns, sans the finishing sequence. When Rodrigues took him down he was controlled for a bit during the first round, but was able to get back to his feet quickly when he was taken down in the second round.

Holmes does not have good top control from the limited time I have seen him on the ground. When he fought DeWayne Diggs (4-4) at LFA 114 he was swept during the first round on both of his completed takedowns. I am sure Holmes has improved since then but it was only a little over a year ago. Park does give up his back to getup and Holmes has a good RNC but that RNC opportunity is contingent on Holmes completing a takedown which is a weak area for him. Holmes also doesn't appear to have the conditioning to grapple outside of the first 1.5 rounds.

I gotta disagree on the Park not hitting hard part. He definitely rocked Marc-Andre Barriault, Anthony Hernandez, and Gregory Rodrigues. Park also opened up Tafon Nchukwi with his ground and pound badly enough that he was given a 10-8 in round 3 by two judges. I think this fight likely goes to decision but Holmes has looked weak to the body to me so I wouldn't rule out some type of TKO.

 

[Bakayoko]

Surprised by the Kattar favoring.I got a few wrong reads lately but I'm confident that Allen is quicker and more versatile and unless he gasses badly he takes a UD

 

[PuertoRican]

UFC FN 213 PBP/Discussion: https://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-fn-213-pbp-discussion.4262364/

 

[Shelter]

Parlay of Hooper/Cortes-Acosta/Fremd comes out to +248 right now.

I faded Hooper against Peterson but he looked sharp in his last fight against Colares. I think the relentless grappling he showed will be enough to overwhelm Garcia, whose durability doesn’t seem great and more importantly had Luis Peña on him like a backpack for three straight rounds. Granted he survived that, but that’s not a game you want to play with Hooper.

Including Waldo is as much a fade of Vaderaa as it is faith in Waldo. Vaderaa’s just a lumbering oaf, bad fight IQ, and likely not enough power to outgun Cortes-Acosta. Big risk here is if Vanderaa can hold Waldo against the cage and take him down like Thomas Petersen was able to do fairly often, but Waldo doesn’t go away and his cardio was still there to put Petersen away in round three. I’ll risk it.

For Fremd I just think he’s already beaten better fighters than Gore, and Gore doesn’t have the finishing skills to spark him. I’d take Joel Bauman, Fremd’s last pre-UFC win over Gore for sure. Fremd’s UFC debut was short notice, he’s training at Factory X, I think he’ll blast him just like Brundage was able to.

Serves me right for betting on that weak, gangly clown. Oh well