UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs. Allen, Sat. Oct. 29

[Shelter]

Parlay of Hooper/Cortes-Acosta/Fremd comes out to +248 right now.

I faded Hooper against Peterson but he looked sharp in his last fight against Colares. I think the relentless grappling he showed will be enough to overwhelm Garcia, whose durability doesn’t seem great and more importantly had Luis Peña on him like a backpack for three straight rounds. Granted he survived that, but that’s not a game you want to play with Hooper.

Including Waldo is as much a fade of Vaderaa as it is faith in Waldo. Vaderaa’s just a lumbering oaf, bad fight IQ, and likely not enough power to outgun Cortes-Acosta. Big risk here is if Vanderaa can hold Waldo against the cage and take him down like Thomas Petersen was able to do fairly often, but Waldo doesn’t go away and his cardio was still there to put Petersen away in round three. I’ll risk it.

For Fremd I just think he’s already beaten better fighters than Gore, and Gore doesn’t have the finishing skills to spark him. I’d take Joel Bauman, Fremd’s last pre-UFC win over Gore for sure. Fremd’s UFC debut was short notice, he’s training at Factory X, I think he’ll blast him just like Brundage was able to.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Parlay of Hooper/Cortes-Acosta/Fremd comes out to +248 right now.

I faded Hooper against Peterson but he looked sharp in his last fight against Colares. I think the relentless grappling he showed will be enough to overwhelm Garcia, whose durability doesn’t seem great and more importantly had Luis Peña on him like a backpack for three straight rounds. Granted he survived that, but that’s not a game you want to play with Hooper.

Including Waldo is as much a fade of Vaderaa as it is faith in Waldo. Vaderaa’s just a lumbering oaf, bad fight IQ, and likely not enough power to outgun Cortes-Acosta. Big risk here is if Vanderaa can hold Waldo against the cage and take him down like Thomas Petersen was able to do fairly often, but Waldo doesn’t go away and his cardio was still there to put Petersen away in round three. I’ll risk it.

For Fremd I just think he’s already beaten better fighters than Gore, and Gore doesn’t have the finishing skills to spark him. I’d take Joel Bauman, Fremd’s last pre-UFC win over Gore for sure. Fremd’s UFC debut was short notice, he’s training at Factory X, I think he’ll blast him just like Brundage was able to.

The only thing that scares me off Fremd is that he's a glass cannon and although I don't rate Gore he can crack.

 

[theTKDguy]

I like kattar, and odds are getting close to evens on my bookie. However i like the fdgtd more, something's got to give i think. They are both powerful boxers and allen can get overagressive

Rest of the card is tricky af, i'm not confident in any

 

[mkess101]

I like kattar, and odds are getting close to evens on my bookie. However i like the fdgtd more, something's got to give i think. They are both powerful boxers and allen can get overagressive

Rest of the card is tricky af, i'm not confident in any

Kattar is a good boxer but the way he was overly respectful of Emmett's power was frustrating. I still thought Calvin won but he was just way too hesitant to mix it up and it cost him the fight.

Allen has big power too and I think we could see Calvin show similar respect here except I think Allen is a smoother striker than Emmett too so it's not just the big power that Calvin has to worry about.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Kattar is a good boxer but the way he was overly respectful of Emmett's power was frustrating. I still thought Calvin won but he was just way too hesitant to mix it up and it cost him the fight.

Allen has big power too and I think we could see Calvin show similar respect here except I think Allen is a smoother striker than Emmett too so it's not just the big power that Calvin has to worry about.

I also suspect Allen fights to the level of his opponent a bit. He's just always seemed to adjust to roughly slightly better than the level of whoever he's fighting aside from the Hooker fight.

 

[Thesnake101]

The only thing that scares me off Fremd is that he's a glass cannon and although I don't rate Gore he can crack.

He can also get cracked though, and as we've seen, wh

Kattar is a good boxer but the way he was overly respectful of Emmett's power was frustrating. I still thought Calvin won but he was just way too hesitant to mix it up and it cost him the fight.

Allen has big power too and I think we could see Calvin show similar respect here except I think Allen is a smoother striker than Emmett too so it's not just the big power that Calvin has to worry about.

I don't think the power of Emmett and Allen is really comparable tbh. I think Calvin's chin is also better than Sodiq's by a lot, so we might see a similar dynamic as in Arnold/Yussuf without the knockdowns saving Allen here.

I do wonder if we'll see Kattar use his wrestling again here, I feel like that could be something to be exploited even if there's the risk of him getting snagged in a guillotine.

 

[mkess101]

He can also get cracked though, and as we've seen, wh

I don't think the power of Emmett and Allen is really comparable tbh. I think Calvin's chin is also better than Sodiq's by a lot, so we might see a similar dynamic as in Arnold/Yussuf without the knockdowns saving Allen here.

I do wonder if we'll see Kattar use his wrestling again here, I feel like that could be something to be exploited even if there's the risk of him getting snagged in a guillotine.

Emmett maybe hits a little harder but Allen can crack. I missed Allen at the really good odds, now it's a pick 'em basically so maybe a pass. IDK.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Durden now fighting Tizil Mota. Looking forward to seeing the odds for this, I reckon Tizil sparks him.

 

[Danis_champ]

Rountree's win over Roberson didn't age well. I think Jacoby will make him look stupid like he looked against Prachnio. Khalil very inconsistent. Sometimes he wins impressively but next time looks like a bum. Can't trust him.

 

[theTKDguy]

Kattar is a good boxer but the way he was overly respectful of Emmett's power was frustrating. I still thought Calvin won but he was just way too hesitant to mix it up and it cost him the fight.

Allen has big power too and I think we could see Calvin show similar respect here except I think Allen is a smoother striker than Emmett too so it's not just the big power that Calvin has to worry about.

Good points, he was way too respectful indeed. This is a different matchup tho, those bulky explosive dudes can be tricky, especially when they have good head movement/know how to slip their way inside like emmett does. Should be a fun one either way, they are both very good strikers with virtually identical frames

 

[PuertoRican]

I like kattar, and odds are getting close to evens on my bookie. However i like the fdgtd more, something's got to give i think. They are both powerful boxers and allen can get overagressive

Rest of the card is tricky af, i'm not confident in any

I put $100 on Kattar -115 on BAS last night.

I will add a bigger bet on Kattar after Round 1, as Allen will be at his best during the first 1.5 to 2 rounds, and I'll be able to get the same odds or slight dog odds during that time. Just need to verify what Allen's game plan will be, but I assume it will be business as usual.

I think Kattar wins the last 3 rounds, for sure the last 2 rounds.

 

[BigSteve]

Another early one, lets go $$$

 

[PuertoRican]

I put $100 on Kattar -115 on BAS last night.

I will add a bigger bet on Kattar after Round 1, as Allen will be at his best during the first 1.5 to 2 rounds, and I'll be able to get the same odds or slight dog odds during that time. Just need to verify what Allen's game plan will be, but I assume it will be business as usual.

I think Kattar wins the last 3 rounds, for sure the last 2 rounds.

I guess I bet Kattar too early. He's currently -105 on BAS, and +100 on other books.

 

[michi972]

Lima should knockout Arlovski? Anyone? I think he's a step up from last opponents, he should even outstrike Andrei even if he doesn't finish him. Anyway, at this stage father time will be too much for Andrei. We don't know when, but it's coming sooner or later

 

[mkess101]

Lima should knockout Arlovski? Anyone? I think he's a step up from last opponents, he should even outstrike Andrei even if he doesn't finish him.

Yep but after I lost my ass when I bet Collier vs Arlovski and was robbed horribly I'm gunshy about betting against that old fucker. He's got pics of all the judges at midget orgies or something I swear, it's like they are incapable of having him lose a decision.

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Yep but after I lost my ass when I bet Collier vs Arlovski and was robbed horribly I'm gunshy about betting against that old fucker. He's got pics of all the judges at midget orgies or something I swear, it's like they are incapable of having him lose a decision.

The last judge to give a decision against him just got arrested for child molestation, you could actually be onto something here.

 

[B.Goetz]

Another early one, lets go $$$

Playing Devil's Advocate a bit with the Jacoby/Rountree fight. You said "Jacoby doesn't get KO'd much." The fact is, he's never been KO/TKO'd standing in an MMA fight. The only guy to properly KO him was Alex Pereira in a kickboxing match in 2014. It's possible that Rountree could win a decision against a guy with a 4" reach advantage if he can stay on the front foot and force Pereira to orbit the perimeter of the cage the whole fight, like your buddy was describing. Aggression is the second judging criteria, and it's hard to win a fight backing up and counter-striking unless you're amazing at it. You rate Jacoby as having the better cardio (I actually think it's greater efficiency, as Khalil burn himself up throwing power shots, but that's splitting hairs), so that might be a tall order. Your friend was fortunate enough to get Khalil in the brief period when he was +185, which is a good bet, but I don't think I'd take him at the current +140ish line. I might be proven wrong, but I don't think I could bet Khalil with any confidence. I like him though. Hope he wins.

 

[BigSteve]

Playing Devil's Advocate a bit with the Jacoby/Rountree fight. You said "Jacoby doesn't get KO'd much." The fact is, he's never been KO/TKO'd standing in an MMA fight. The only guy to properly KO him was Alex Pereira in a kickboxing match in 2014. It's possible that Rountree could win a decision against a guy with a 4" reach advantage if he can stay on the front foot and force Pereira to orbit the perimeter of the cage the whole fight, like your buddy was describing. Aggression is the second judging criteria, and it's hard to win a fight backing up and counter-striking unless you're amazing at it. You rate Jacoby as having the better cardio (I actually think it's greater efficiency, as Khalil burn himself up throwing power shots, but that's splitting hairs), so that might be a tall order. Your friend was fortunate enough to get Khalil in the brief period when he was +185, which is a good bet, but I don't think I'd take him at the current +140ish line. I might be proven wrong, but I don't think I could bet Khalil with any confidence. I like him though. Hope he wins.

If anyone is to do it it's Khalil

 

[Broe.]

Hooper by KO/Tko or dq +500 me likey likey

 

[Hellowhosthat]

Playing Devil's Advocate a bit with the Jacoby/Rountree fight. You said "Jacoby doesn't get KO'd much." The fact is, he's never been KO/TKO'd standing in an MMA fight. The only guy to properly KO him was Alex Pereira in a kickboxing match in 2014. It's possible that Rountree could win a decision against a guy with a 4" reach advantage if he can stay on the front foot and force Pereira to orbit the perimeter of the cage the whole fight, like your buddy was describing. Aggression is the second judging criteria, and it's hard to win a fight backing up and counter-striking unless you're amazing at it. You rate Jacoby as having the better cardio (I actually think it's greater efficiency, as Khalil burn himself up throwing power shots, but that's splitting hairs), so that might be a tall order. Your friend was fortunate enough to get Khalil in the brief period when he was +185, which is a good bet, but I don't think I'd take him at the current +140ish line. I might be proven wrong, but I don't think I could bet Khalil with any confidence. I like him though. Hope he wins.

When Khalil KO's people he just fucking mugs them though. If he lands a few clean shots in a row there's very few people who can survive it. He's fast, powerful and really fucking violent.