UFC Vegas 71: Yan vs. Dvalishvili, March 11
- Thread starter DabanggData
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How bad does Spann struggle making 205? He is a giant. I wonder how strong he's going to be at 215.
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I doubt he struggles much. They both probably just agreed since they made weight 2 weeks or so ago.
He weighed 213 here and has made middleweight multiple times in the past(not saying he makes it now).
He's also weighed in at 203 and 204 a bunch without needing the 1lbs allowance.
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For someone else maybe. He's gonna ragdoll dudes and stomp them early, or gas out and look like dogshit the 2nd half of almost every fight. His physique probably doesn't matter a whole lot.
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my initial thought when I watched the weigh in was omg this guy looks like an absolute slob
Didn’t realize he’s 25 pounds heavier then normal
it’s 1st round or bust for him …. We’ll see …
either way not a good look even if he gets the quick win
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romanov cardio was still shit when he lost 25lb, he might as well be at maximum power in first round with weight gain if he gonna gas regardless.
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If Volkov survives on the ground for 1.5 rounds, I have a hunch he finishes Romanov in the 3rd
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Bautista to finish Cannetti in R1 is 1.95. That seems great considering he's finished both his last two in the 1st. I also feel like at 43, Guido knows he doesn't have the cardio and tries his best to get things done quick. It should just leave big openings for Bautista to do whatever he wants and fast.
Nam/Silva to end in KO is 2.05. Both guys have usually lost by decision. Neither favor subs. Silva has a few, but they were early in his career and he's more about the striking now. Both guys come to bang. Those odds seem generous.
JJ/Lipski - I wish JJ there was value in JJ. She doesn't have the best tds, but Lipski doesn't have the best tdd. At 2.55, I like the idea of something small on ITD. Maybe Lipski can hurt and finish with strikes, or maybe JJ can use Lipski's aggression against her and get a td and finish with strikes herself.
Dumas/Fremd - I like U1.5. ITD isn't paying enough. I think this one is going to be a banger. Fremd brings it, and for his debut, Dumas will as well.
Volkov/Romanov - 1.43 for ITD is actually good here, I reckon. I think we all know Romanov either gets it done early or gets finished a bit later when he tires. Volkov is way more of a finishing threat than Tybura was.
Yan/Merab - ITD is 2.45 and probably it'll be Yan doing it. Those odds are great. I know Yan is known for being a slow starter, but I think a lot of that is due to the matchups he's had. Guys like Faber, Aldo, Cory, Suga, etc all allowed it. A fighter like Merab won't. He isn't going to sit back and get reads for a round or two. He'll be pressuring and shooting from the opening bell. Yan won't be starting slow because he won't have a chance to.
SPan/Kyrlov - U1.5 or maybe a fair bit on ITD. 1.5 is paying nice enough though and I think these two get it done early.
Assuncao/Grant - either ITD or Assuncao for the odds. I like Grant a lot, but he was starting to lose against Smolka. Assuncao old but I don't think he's done just yet.
These and most of the rest for ITD look good, but then, ITD always looks good to me lol.
Nam/Silva to end in KO is 2.05. Both guys have usually lost by decision. Neither favor subs. Silva has a few, but they were early in his career and he's more about the striking now. Both guys come to bang. Those odds seem generous.
JJ/Lipski - I wish JJ there was value in JJ. She doesn't have the best tds, but Lipski doesn't have the best tdd. At 2.55, I like the idea of something small on ITD. Maybe Lipski can hurt and finish with strikes, or maybe JJ can use Lipski's aggression against her and get a td and finish with strikes herself.
Dumas/Fremd - I like U1.5. ITD isn't paying enough. I think this one is going to be a banger. Fremd brings it, and for his debut, Dumas will as well.
Volkov/Romanov - 1.43 for ITD is actually good here, I reckon. I think we all know Romanov either gets it done early or gets finished a bit later when he tires. Volkov is way more of a finishing threat than Tybura was.
Yan/Merab - ITD is 2.45 and probably it'll be Yan doing it. Those odds are great. I know Yan is known for being a slow starter, but I think a lot of that is due to the matchups he's had. Guys like Faber, Aldo, Cory, Suga, etc all allowed it. A fighter like Merab won't. He isn't going to sit back and get reads for a round or two. He'll be pressuring and shooting from the opening bell. Yan won't be starting slow because he won't have a chance to.
SPan/Kyrlov - U1.5 or maybe a fair bit on ITD. 1.5 is paying nice enough though and I think these two get it done early.
Assuncao/Grant - either ITD or Assuncao for the odds. I like Grant a lot, but he was starting to lose against Smolka. Assuncao old but I don't think he's done just yet.
These and most of the rest for ITD look good, but then, ITD always looks good to me lol.
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Random shit picks for giggles.
Yan dec. It's a meme at this point how unlucky Yan and Merab has more momentum but Yan has the style to nullify most of Merab's offense. Odds are too wide though. I could see Merab running away hugging, throwing meaningless offense and hitting one or two takedowns here and there to get judges award him for mostly (again) meaningless offense. That is if Yan lets him. Similar fashion of which Merab beat Dodson and Aldo with.
Volkov dec or 2-3 rd tko. Romanov might sub him in first after his first or second takedown but other than that Volkov should roll. Closer you get to the top it just becomes harder and harder to achieve stuff with pure power and physicality. You are going to eventually need skill and slickness and iq and all that other stuff. See Tom Aspinall who has everything of that and more.
Spann sub. My gut tells me Krylov brings the fight to him and drowns him with volume like he does to so many other guys but what separates Spann from other Krylov victims is offensive sub game and Krylov is very prone to get reckless and chocked out. So I'll go with that though it wouldn't surprise me to see Krylov run through him either.
Nurmagomedov ud. I think it's a toin coss kinda fight but Nurmagomedov has been more fortunate in closely contested fights. Flash sub wouldn't surprise me either.
Assuncao dec. It's either Grant knocks him dead in a slugfest or Assuncao lures him into grappling and I think thats the biggest difference maker in this fight. Grant has some good offense on the ground but nothing suggest me he could shut down Assuncao defensive wise.
JJ tko. Lipski is all offense and that could be a problem but she has no head movement and is poor defensive grappler so I think JJ most likely has too operate in a chaos a bit but "finds something" from the offensive minded Lipski in the end. Id like to be wrong though as I probably will bet Arianne here.
I play the contrarian to myself in every one of these but thats the name of the game. Thsese are some close fights on paper though.
Yan dec. It's a meme at this point how unlucky Yan and Merab has more momentum but Yan has the style to nullify most of Merab's offense. Odds are too wide though. I could see Merab running away hugging, throwing meaningless offense and hitting one or two takedowns here and there to get judges award him for mostly (again) meaningless offense. That is if Yan lets him. Similar fashion of which Merab beat Dodson and Aldo with.
Volkov dec or 2-3 rd tko. Romanov might sub him in first after his first or second takedown but other than that Volkov should roll. Closer you get to the top it just becomes harder and harder to achieve stuff with pure power and physicality. You are going to eventually need skill and slickness and iq and all that other stuff. See Tom Aspinall who has everything of that and more.
Spann sub. My gut tells me Krylov brings the fight to him and drowns him with volume like he does to so many other guys but what separates Spann from other Krylov victims is offensive sub game and Krylov is very prone to get reckless and chocked out. So I'll go with that though it wouldn't surprise me to see Krylov run through him either.
Nurmagomedov ud. I think it's a toin coss kinda fight but Nurmagomedov has been more fortunate in closely contested fights. Flash sub wouldn't surprise me either.
Assuncao dec. It's either Grant knocks him dead in a slugfest or Assuncao lures him into grappling and I think thats the biggest difference maker in this fight. Grant has some good offense on the ground but nothing suggest me he could shut down Assuncao defensive wise.
JJ tko. Lipski is all offense and that could be a problem but she has no head movement and is poor defensive grappler so I think JJ most likely has too operate in a chaos a bit but "finds something" from the offensive minded Lipski in the end. Id like to be wrong though as I probably will bet Arianne here.
I play the contrarian to myself in every one of these but thats the name of the game. Thsese are some close fights on paper though.
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Maybe Romanov isn't as good as people think? Other than Tybura any other Romanov's UFC opponent basically has no ground game. Sherman, Martinez, Vanderaa, Lima - all flat on the ground with shitty fight IQ's. Espino is a decent fighter and he arguably beat Romanov.
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He's a hammer for 5 minutes, most guys need to be really capable and/or durable to survive rd 1 against him. Then he turns into a regional bum level fighter because he's exhausted.
Lotta people on the o1.5, I lean the other way. Romanov I think with a good shot to finish early but with 25 extra lbs may be an absolute corpse by the start of rd2 if Volkov survives.
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Betonline has :
Volkov most significant strikes @-150
65 to win 43.33
Round 2 scorecard winner or finish : Volkov @+120
85 to win 102
These are also pretty interesting :
Round 3 scorecard winner or finish volkov @-165 (don't know if the bet is voided or considered a loss though if Volkov gets finished in round 1 or 2)
Romanov round 1 SUB @+500
UFC Booster
Romanov + Yan both finish @+575
Volkov most significant strikes @-150
65 to win 43.33
Round 2 scorecard winner or finish : Volkov @+120
85 to win 102
These are also pretty interesting :
Round 3 scorecard winner or finish volkov @-165 (don't know if the bet is voided or considered a loss though if Volkov gets finished in round 1 or 2)
Romanov round 1 SUB @+500
UFC Booster
Romanov + Yan both finish @+575
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Good one. Didn't see that coming.
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He said he bet on Yan the other day
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He's been here. I had a good discussion with him about the ME.
This time I was right and he was wrong, but I still feel he gets way more right than wrong, and I always want to see his thoughts.[/QUOTE]
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