UFC Vegas 79: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot, September 23

[MixMartialFarts]

I never said that what I am saying is whenever a fighter who has an extremely bad performance always has an excuse on why he or she did.his excuse was the flu. Even in a win sometimes fighters have an excuse on why they didn't perform as well as they should have like Tyson claimed his back was broke in a fight that he won. Schevenko claimed she broke her pinky in the first rd vs grasso. If you are badly sick pull out of the fight stop making excuses.

EXCUSES CAN BE TRUE

Even if he didn't have the Flu, Topuria is a different animal, Ige is good but I think Topuria is on another level. Mitchell via decision.

 

[StewDogg11]

Well according to people on this forum he only lost to topuria because he had the flu

Do you always put words into people’s mouths? Well of course you do. I was simply implying he wasn’t going to perform as well as he could’ve if he actually had the flu. This would be true of anyone.

 

[BigDramaShow26]

I dont understand the Mitchell hype AT ALL. Ok he beat Barboza easily. That's about it. Ige has good TDD aside vs. Evolev who takes everyone down..

The gap is Ige and Mitchell's striking is far bigger than the gap.in the grappling. +175 odds for Ige is a must bet for me. Same goes for the point spread.

 

[MidgardSerpent]

I have concerns about Bryce's mental health lately. He's going on about demons and religion, claiming his ex is killing his trees and generally seems off his rocker. I know I won't be betting him because he's just not stable enough. The excuse thing could be true, he could be messing with drugs, he could be unbalanced, Topuria could just be that good, at the end of the day, I don't know but I'm not comfortable risking any of my bankroll on him.

Yeah, same. Whereas Ige seems to be pretty solid mentally, although in one interview I was kind of taken aback that he was really looking for Dana White's approval back from his Contender days. Not just career-wise, but in a weird emotional father figure way.

As for Mitchell, this is from all the way back in 2018.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/zmk...ell-ripped-his-nutsack-to-shreds-with-a-drill

 

[Captain Chesapeake]

Topuria would beat Mitchell down on Mitchell’s best day.

Mitchell got overrated; specifically his striking.

 

[mkess101]

Topuria would beat Mitchell down on Mitchell’s best day.

Mitchell got overrated; specifically his striking.

I agree overrated to a degree, but his striking? I only ever saw anyone talk about his grappling.

 

[Thesnake101]

I agree overrated to a degree, but his striking? I only ever saw anyone talk about his grappling.

Ditto, it's not like Bryce fucks around on the feet much if at all either.

Biggest issue in the fight for Ige won't be stopping the first few takedowns, but rather the ones that come after it. Bryce managed to take Fili down 7 times, and Andre is a TAM guy with solid TDD, so it wouldn't be out of the question for him to replicate Movsar's performance against Dan albeit less dominantly.

 

[mkess101]

Ditto, it's not like Bryce fucks around on the feet much if at all either.

Biggest issue in the fight for Ige won't be stopping the first few takedowns, but rather the ones that come after it. Bryce managed to take Fili down 7 times, and Andre is a TAM guy with solid TDD, so it wouldn't be out of the question for him to replicate Movsar's performance against Dan albeit less dominantly.

Evloev has better TD's than Bryce by far though. Bryce shines with how he flows with top control, but his TD's are just decent, not great. And Fili has ok TDD but he's so long and lanky that works against him. Ige is short and compact. He also hits way harder than a guy like Fili so there way more risk for Bryce just recklessly crashing into the pocket to get ahold of him.

I think Bryce can maybe get a couple TD's but I don't see him being able to dominate the fight with grappling. I think he'll have some moments but this will be a close fight.

Ige decision is +450 which seems pretty nice...

 

[Thesnake101]

Evloev has better TD's than Bryce by far though. Bryce shines with how he flows with top control, but his TD's are just decent, not great. And Fili has ok TDD but he's so long and lanky that works against him. Ige is short and compact. He also hits way harder than a guy like Fili so there way more risk for Bryce just recklessly crashing into the pocket to get ahold of him.

I think Bryce can maybe get a couple TD's but I don't see him being able to dominate the fight with grappling. I think he'll have some moments but this will be a close fight.

Ige decision is +450 which seems pretty nice...

Ige hasn't had his TDD tested that much outside of the Evloev fight as of late though, and his overall TDD sits at 56%.

His best showing as far as takedown defense goes probably was against Bektic way back in 2020, when he stopped 7 of Mirsad 10 attempts and that was still a split.

Since then he's fought mostly strikers aside from Movsar.

Edson, Calvin (went 1 for 1 in TDs), Emmett, Tucker (ended in the first exchange), KZ (went 3 for 5 in TDs), Evloev (went 9/16 which is on par for his 50% TD rate), Jackson (only tried 1 TD which failed) and Landwehr (went 0 for 3, but I'd argue he's just not as good as Bryce - worse TD rate, less TD attempted, etc.).

Ige has value, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up losing a 30-27 here.

 

[mkess101]

Ige hasn't had his TDD tested that much outside of the Evloev fight as of late though, and his overall TDD sits at 56%.

His best showing as far as takedown defense goes probably was against Bektic way back in 2020, when he stopped 7 of Mirsad 10 attempts and that was still a split.

Since then he's fought mostly strikers aside from Movsar.

Edson, Calvin (went 1 for 1 in TDs), Emmett, Tucker (ended in the first exchange), KZ (went 3 for 5 in TDs), Evloev (went 9/16 which is on par for his 50% TD rate), Jackson (only tried 1 TD which failed) and Landwehr (went 0 for 3, but I'd argue he's just not as good as Bryce - worse TD rate, less TD attempted, etc.).

Ige has value, don't get me wrong, but I wouldn't be surprised if he ended up losing a 30-27 here.

I wouldn't be shocked, but I like Ige's chances with damage being the main criteria used. I think we could see a round or two where there's debate because Ige gets the better of the standup for half the round and then Bryce gets a td and has some control time. Just feels like one of those fights that goes the distance and has some debate about the decision after. I'd rather be on the dog end of that with the juicy + number next to the decision.

 

[Oblivian]

I think Ige is a fighter that can also scramble with Bryce a little bit. I don't think the grappling is that far of a discrepancy. Standing discrepancy is pretty large.

 

[UFCIsNOTRigged]

Mizuki is way better than Goldy but all the layoffs and inactivity looks bad. One scenario Goldy outworking Mizuki on top while Mizu hunts for subs and doesnt get them. Other than that I want to say Mizu feels like a "sure thing"

Mizuki is definitely the "better" fighter but she doesn't separate herself from opponents which is a problem against an opponent like Goldy who throws at a similar pace and is a comfortable striker herself.

Goldy could also have grappling success from top position and potentially may be able to wall-and-stall. O2.5, which is roughly the same price as Mizuki's ML is probably the safer play, but both seem like a pass.

 

[2bet]

IMO there is quite some value on Ige, and atm xtreme couture is having a great run in general.
I will pass on this fight nevertheless.
I watched all these Mitchell interviews, all his god/jesus talk sounds so akward but who knows maybe god really is on his side, I don't wanna bet against god's soldier lol.
No seriously, he is such a strange character, like Ferguson back in the day, but different.
I feel better not having any money against him

 

[StewDogg11]

IMO there is quite some value on Ige, and atm xtreme couture is having a great run in general.
I will pass on this fight nevertheless.
I watched all these Mitchell interviews, all his god/jesus talk sounds so akward but who knows maybe god really is on his side, I don't wanna bet against god's soldier lol.
No seriously, he is such a strange character, like Ferguson back in the day, but different.
I feel better not having any money against him

Don’t forget Rampage was God’s Street Soldier as well.

 

[2bet]

Don’t forget Rampage was God’s Street Soldier as well.

I am not forgetting Romero either haha.
Diego Sanchez was also a scary dude in his prime, I only bet against the crazy ones when they are on a clear decline already

 

[Wagner Azevedo]

I have concerns about Bryce's mental health lately. He's going on about demons and religion, claiming his ex is killing his trees and generally seems off his rocker. I know I won't be betting him because he's just not stable enough. The excuse thing could be true, he could be messing with drugs, he could be unbalanced, Topuria could just be that good, at the end of the day, I don't know but I'm not comfortable risking any of my bankroll on him.

Well, he's a flat earther. There's always that.

I don't wanna bet against god's soldier lol.

There's an old brazilian saying that roughly (very roughly) translates to something like:
"If religion won games, every championship would end in a draw."

 

[Kwiatkowski18]

I suspect Bryce is either manic bipolar or sliding down into paranoid schizo territory. I caution anyone playing him. And this is coming from a guy who's worked with a lot of those folks.

 

[Jasper_RB81]

I suspect Bryce is either manic bipolar or sliding down into paranoid schizo territory. I caution anyone playing him. And this is coming from a guy who's worked with a lot of those folks.

Nothing that a few punches to the head won't solve... rattle that brain a bit to get all the pieces to fall in to place again.

 

[michi972]

I dont understand the Mitchell hype AT ALL. Ok he beat Barboza easily. That's about it. Ige has good TDD aside vs. Evolev who takes everyone down..

The gap is Ige and Mitchell's striking is far bigger than the gap.in the grappling. +175 odds for Ige is a must bet for me. Same goes for the point spread.

Past prime Zombie was able to outgrapple Ige. I'm not hyped on Bryce, but I see him putting a grappling ckinique on Ige, I think it's a good fight for him and he's a few years younger, more room to improve.

Gamrot vs Fiziev. Imo it's dog or pass unless you play the precise result on either side. I think 5 rounds are im Gamrot's favour. Fiziev never faced such a relentless grappler, there are do many unknown things. Can Gamrot take him down, can Gamrot keep him down, can Fiziev withstand grappling pace, can Fiziev defend himself on the ground. I think Gamrot can steal rounds just by chasing takedowns, working on the cage, making Fiziev defend takedowns without even landing takedowns. I won't be surprised at all od Fiziev keeps it standing and wins, but dog or pass.

Rodriguez should run through Waterson

 

[michi972]

I suspect Bryce is either manic bipolar or sliding down into paranoid schizo territory. I caution anyone playing him. And this is coming from a guy who's worked with a lot of those folks.

Can you elaborate? Imo he was always like this, still put on performances.