UFN 103: Rodriguez vs. Penn - Phoenix

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In your opinions Moraga is an elite of the division?
I am thinking to play Pettis a bit but his lack of finish ability plus no top victories scares me.
 
Basek said:
In your opinions Moraga is an elite of the division?
I am thinking to play Pettis a bit but his lack of finish ability plus no top victories scares me.
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I think this fight is a good measuring stick for Pettis, Moraga is more or less a gatekeeper at this point. I think Pettis should win a decision but Moraga can catch him in a guillotine. I doubled Pettis and Yair for about +105.
 
Buddy Brown said:
People are playing Saenz because he's facing a grappler with no wrestling or striking, and Saenz should be able to keep it on the feet with his D1 wrestling chops. Pass for me though.
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Have you watched any tape on tanquinhos ground game? Saying that since he is a d1 wrestler = won't be taken down is a lazy assumption that can easily fuck a bet up.

Tanquinhos poor striking defense is his biggest problem I agree, but Saenz striking is so anemic, and is meant to set up his wrestling game. A game he won't be able to use here... I don't know if he is smart enough to make adjustments, he didn't show it in the wineland fight.

A lot of this is devil's advocate. Pre Fight is a pass for me. I think a contrary opinion is actually most valuable when it seems most are on one side.
 
AffectEffect said:
Have you watched any tape on tanquinhos ground game? Saying that since he is a d1 wrestler = won't be taken down is a lazy assumption that can easily fuck a bet up.

Tanquinhos poor striking defense is his biggest problem I agree, but Saenz striking is so anemic, and is meant to set up his wrestling game. A game he won't be able to use here... I don't know if he is smart enough to make adjustments, he didn't show it in the wineland fight.

A lot of this is devil's advocate. Pre Fight is a pass for me. I think a contrary opinion is actually most valuable when it seems most are on one side.
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I've seen nothing from Mendes on tape that shows me he can take a D1 wrestler down. He's got into MMA way too late, 5-1 at 33, hasn't beat anyone (last win was over a 5-5 guy) and he's very stiff and unathletic.

Saenz is nothing special but he should be able to keep this on the feet and easily outstrike Mendes. There's no reason to assume Mendes can outstrike anyone.

With that being said I won't be surprised if Saenz gets tripped in the clinch at some point and then schooled on the ground which is why I'm not betting him, but I see no reason to bet Mendes either. Definite pass.
 
vkram said:
The website layout is pretty neat tbh.
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His website is great. Still not a reason to waste your time pretending you know what you're doing.

At least he's stopped charging people for his trash.
 
Buddy Brown said:
His website is great. Still not a reason to waste your time pretending you know what you're doing.

At least he's stopped charging people for his trash.
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The website probably tricks people into thinking he is legit too.
 
AffectEffect said:
@Rebel_LioN

I have been going back and forth on Saenz vs tanquino. I'll play devil's advocate.

What has Saenz ever really done? A split Dec over kakai isn't looking like a big accolade now. Ticman w is nothing special. He was losing to alcantara until alcantara alcanatared. Then he put up a fight and lost vs a retiree and had zero ability to make adjustments vs wineland. I mean I get it, he made me a lot vs alcantara and that is a rosey memory, but I don't think the dude is very trustworthy, and his last performance was pretty bad.

On paper this could be a bad matchup for him, Tanquino even tho he hasn't shown it, is a Top shelf grappler. He has had great matches with some of the GOATS, he is considered top 3 in one of the hardest weight classes in BJJ, having to go against Rafa Mendes or Cobrinha regularly. And as we know Saenz gets in a lot of scrambles he is basically a weak volume striker with a wrestling game. If he gets his back taken like his did vs alcantara, very good chance Tanquino gets a sub there.
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I don't disagree with anything you said. I think some of the concerns you mentioned I addressed as well in that breakdown.

Anyways, Saenz has a bunch of decisions on his record and he probably won't tap Mendes and I can gain value by picking his decision prop.

That reason makes me pick Saenz.

It's like Frankie Edgar if I can get him by decision prop it's all good.
 
Holy shit at Powell's complexion, he's like the main light source in that room.
 
Holy fuck Augusti Mendes is in way better shape for this fight. Looks totally different imo.
 
Buddy Brown said:
I just hate it when something stupid like a man sprinkling salt becomes a meme no one shuts the fuck up about for months

Worst one recently was "damn Daniel" which was literally just some weird kid saying "damn Daniel" at another kid wearing white vans. HILARIOUS! The kid even got invited on Ellen for it... Wtf? Maybe I'm just getting old
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I can confirm that you are not getting old as I have no clue wtf you are talking about in both instances.
 
Rebel_LioN said:
Enlighten me on what else he's done on his resume cuz I didn't watch his Bellator fights live. When I typed his name in YouTube the first video was him dropping Nate Jolly with a knee and then he runs towards him and slips on a banana peel.



There's only 1 reason you need: +400.

Unless you wanna bet on Yair instead and buy yourself a happy meal with a toy with the money you earned.

And it's the last fight on the card, just punt your money on him depending how your night is going.
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he looked good v Jansen and Sarnavsky, using adequate standup, some double leg takedowns, top control and sub hunting.
don't get me wrong, I'm not loving a bet on him, and at evens, there's not as much value. I'd cap held's chances of winning at app 55%
 
fight pass:

asker-smoliakov
asker looks mediocre as usual. 248.
smoliakov looks strong (but soft), in at 251.
smoliakov is 2" taller, looks a little bigger

christensen-mihajlovic
christensen looks decent, not bad, not great.
mihajlovic down to 205... annd still soft, tho nowhere near as soft as he was at hw. tiny 205.
christensen 3-4" taller

sherman-harris
sherman looks solid at 246.
harris looks a little better than usual to me, in at 254.. he's still a bit heavy but he looks fitter than usual i think
harris maybe 1" taller?

lybarger-ansaroff
ansaroff looks pretty darn good for her. quite fit.
lybarger weighs in fully clothed. looks skinny, but yea
lybarger is maybe 2-3" taller?

fs1 prelims:

white-martin
white looks very solid up at 155. how he is usually 145 is puzzling.
martin looks very good as usual.
martin is 2" taller, huge lightweight.

oleinik-pesta
pesta looks very solid for HW as usual, in at 239
oleinik leaves his shirt on. but i see that gut! i think they said 242
pesta is 2-3" taller

mendes-saenz
mendes looks considerably better than he did against garbandt, looks pretty darn good, in fact. (it was very short notice last itme)
saenz looks alright. same as usual for him.
mendes is 1" taller

powell-klose
klose looks ok. no frame of reference for me.. tho he isn't terribly imposing.
powell very long and lean.. looks a little frail for 155
powell is like 5" taller

fs1 main:

pettis-moraga
pettis looks terrific as usual at 125. lean but good.
moraga sons look mopey just like he does, heheh. he looks very solid. same as always
moraga 1" taller

mcgee-saunders
saunders looks solid, rangey 170 as always
mcgee looks pretty mediocre, as he has lately.
saunders is 3-4" taller

lauzon-held
held looks excellent as usual
j-lau looks decent. same as usual for him
held is 1-2" taller (didn't expect that)

penn-rodriguez
BJ looks pretty decent.. not impressive by any means, but he looks leaner and better than he did on the countdown show.
rodriguez is shredded as usual, looks great
yair is about 2" taller (hard to tell)


---

-i was gonna stab at sherman, but i think harris looked the best he has... maybe just pass, now.

-nervous on my saenz bet due to mendes' physical change from the garbrandt fight. hedging half of my risk.

-hedging half of my risk on pettis; i question(ed) moraga's motivation, but he looks very good physically
 
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